Below is the 1-year performance of the ten Canadian dividend stocks from our February 15, 2013 watch list (found here).
|
Symbol
|
Name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| JE.TO | Just Energy | 7.56 | 8.30 | 9.79% |
| FTS.TO | Fortis, Inc. | 33.04 | 30.71 | -7.05% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 22.91 | 18.45 | -19.47% |
| FFH.TO | Fairfax Financial | 376.98 | 434 | 15.13% |
| AX-UN.TO | Artis REIT | 15.84 | 15.53 | -1.96% |
| CPG.TO | Crescent Point Energy Corp | 38.19 | 38.93 | 1.94% |
| IMO.TO | Imperial Oil Ltd | 42.39 | 47.71 | 12.55% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan REIT | 27.45 | 26.23 | -4.44% |
| EMA.TO | Emera, Inc. | 34.95 | 32.65 | -6.58% |
| CTC-A.TO | Canadian Tire Corp | 68.26 | 98.05 | 43.64% |
| Average | 4.35% |
The entire list from last year gained +4.35% while the Toronto Stock Exchange gained +9.72%. Among the top five stocks, the average gain was only +0.71%. The stocks that interested us the most last year were Just Energy and Canadian Tire. Regarding Just Energy we said the following:
“There appears to be tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level going all the way back to 2003. If you’re interested in this stock, consideration of purchases of Just Energy should be entered into in three phases, once at $6.60, $6.00 and $4.00. Naturally, breaking below $6.00 on the downside suggests that the floor’s the limit.”
Just Energy’s support level of $6.00 seems to have held. The stock has recently risen as high as $8.55 and finished the year with a gain of +9.79%.
On the other hand, our commentary regarding Canadian Tire Corp. was well short of the mark. Although Canadian Tire was of interest to us we said the following:
“While we’re interested in this company overall, the fact that it is within 10% of the new low is a bit misleading. The stock has been trading in a range of $66 to $72 from December 2011 to the present. According to Dow Theory, the price activity that has been exhibited by Canadian Tire is either accumulation or distribution of large shareholders. The breaking above or below the ‘line’ is what will determine what has been taking place in the stock for the last year or so. Our guess is that CTC-A.TO is in a distribution phase and should not be bought despite the current level in the stock.”
The mistake that was made with CTC-A.TO was that we didn’t adhere to Dow Theory’s rule of “Lines” which indicates that the trend must be broken before an inference about direction can be made. Once CTC-A.TO broke above $72 the stock rose as high as $100 and currently sits with a gain of +43% since our February 2013 Watch List.
Canadian Dividend Watch List
This is a list of Canadian dividend stocks that are currently on our radar. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | EPS | Yield | P/B | % from low |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 18.45 | 5.24 | 3 | 7.80% | 0.83 | 3.59 |
| FTS.TO | Fortis Inc. | 30.71 | 17.65 | 1.63 | 4.16% | 1.36 | 4.07 |
| D-UN.TO | Dundee REIT | 29.31 | - | 4.49 | 7.64% | 0.84 | 4.57 |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 17.33 | 15.61 | 1.14 | 4.84% | 1.08 | 5.03 |
| BNS.TO | The Bank of Nova Scotia | 63.29 | 12.19 | 5.15 | 3.91% | 1.88 | 5.62 |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apartment Properties REIT | 21.52 | 16.28 | 3.42 | 5.34% | 0.84 | 7.12 |
| CWT-UN.TO | Calloway REIT | 25.77 | - | 2.04 | 6.00% | 1.06 | 7.96 |
| LB.TO | Laurentian Bank of Canada | 45.96 | 11.52 | 3.99 | 4.43% | 1.01 | 8.37 |
| TLM.TO | Talisman Energy Inc. | 11.66 | - | -1.21 | 2.54% | 1.45 | 9.18 |
Analyst Estimates
Below is a snapshot of the analysts low estimated earnings assuming a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 for 2014 and the percentage change in price that is implied based on these low earnings estimates.
As far as we can tell, TLM.TO is not slated to be worth very much by the end of 2014. We’ll have to see how this picture plays out. However, if the stock market can keep its head above water for the next 10 months we wouldn’t be surprised to see TLM.TO to pull off a shocker.