A Different Perspective on Lumber Liquidator

On February 25, 2015, when Lumber Liquidator was trading at $57.23, we said the following:

“Those interested in LL and willing to perform appropriate due diligence could engage in a three phase purchase plan beginning below $39.81, $31.64 and $23.47.  Investors, as opposed to speculators, should be willing to accept that there is no compensation for the wait when holding LL and that the decline to the ascending $23.47 level is a real risk.”

In fact, Lumber Liquidator blasted below the $39.81 support level and has rested at the $31.64 support level and started to move higher as seen in the chart below.

We’ve intentionally left out the move up from $38.83 to highlight the extent of the decline and the high level of coincidence with the supports levels that we had outlined in the previous month.  All that remains is the decline to the $23.47 level.

While famous short-sellers have the ear of influential media to talk their book and ensure their profits, we only have price action to work from.  For this reason, it is well worth noting another coincidence that relates to Lumber Liquidator and futures price on lumber as seen in the chart below.

The coincidence of Lumber Liquidator (LL) declining significantly at the same time as the futures price of lumber (as traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange) seems difficult to ignore.  Investors should take note of the fact that in three prior periods indicated in blue, LL has lost a minimum of –35% and as much as –53% when the price of lumber declined –33% or more. 

So far, from December 2013 to March 2015, the price of lumber has declined –23% while LL has declined as much as –67.49%.  Much of the decline in LL has been exacerbated by concerns related to quality and sourcing of the flooring.  However,  the current decline is only slightly out of alignment from what has happened in the past. 

We say slightly because we’re excluding the peak in lumber at 395.50 when LL was trading at $62.19.  While lumber was trading lower and not to exceed the $395.50 (considered a bear market), LL gained another +92.05%.  If Lumber Liquidator’s decline was measured from the February 15, 2013 peak in lumber at $395.50, the decline in the stock price would equal –37.56%.

Assuming we aren’t on the cusp a new bear market, the decline in LL has been overdone and an individual willing to accept the downside risk to $23.47 should consider implementing a three phase purchase plan.  An investor must keep in mind that the conservative upside target is $80.53 which is the new “limit” for the stock instead of the previous $119.44.  In addition, the downside targets now act as upside resistance level as was the case when LL could not sustain the $53.68 level prior to the recent collapse.