Bitcoin Targets

On November 19, 2013, we said the following:

“Our conservative downside target for Bitcoin, based on the peak closing price of $785.50 is $384.83.  The extreme downside target is $261.83.  The worst case scenario is for Bitcoin to fall as low as $152.83 as indicated by the red line on the chart.

As we’ve written many pieces on the topic of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Line, we’ve made some observations that we think should be highlighted at this time.  For the first time, we’re going to provide what we believe might be an upside target.  In the case of Bitcoin, the next conservative upside target is $1,154.49 if the most recent peak of $785.50 is exceeded.  This is a tentative estimate based on observations of the many successful downside SRLs that we have run in the past.  We’ll be on the lookout for what may come next.”

After offering up our upside target of $1,154.49, Bitcoin peaked at $1,147.25.  The downside targets, a standing number for when and if a decline ensued, were promptly followed by Bitcoin declining to $177.28.

It has taken some time but Bitcoin appears to be on the rebound.  The last quote received was $424 which is above our previous worst case scenario for the digital currency.

Below is the latest downside target based on the current peak price of $424.

We focus on the downside risk to prepare for prudent employment of capital.  Any and all ventures, whether speculative or investment related, should be with the expectation that the worst case scenario is likely.  For this reason, we have indicated the conservative and midrange downside targets on the chart.  One number that has been left out of the chart above (but should be factored in) is the extreme downside target of $141.33.  These numbers will change when and if Bitcoin charges higher.

Currently, the upside targets  are:

• $525.00
• $788.25
• $1051.00

If the current run-up is anything like those in the past, $1,051 could be a relatively small number.  However, each of the indicated upside targets must be achieved first before we can start giving estimates of how far beyond $1,051 Bitcoin could go.