If anyone has managed to follow our work on the topic of Bitcoin, we can only lay claim to the October 7, 2014 call for “Speculators to Unite” when the cryptocurrency was priced at $334.09. At the time, we said the following:
“…bitcoin is worth the plunge. Based on the revised price peak of $1,147.25, bitcoin has a conservative upside target price of $723.34 and an extreme upside target of $1,446.68.”
Since October 7, 2014, we have issued revised upside targets and downside targets that have been generally within the range of expectation. Our last published upside target for Bitcoin was $6,260.91 as seen in the September 5, 2017 posting titled “Bitcoin: Setting the Stage.” The graphical representation of the price of Bitcoin since October 7, 2014 is staggering and worth a refresher view.
At this point, as Bitcoin sits within 7% of the last published target, we cannot take seriously the updated target that has been generated ($7,166.29) based on our Speed Resistance Line calculations. We are throwing in the towel on taking the $7,166.29 figure, and any future upside targets that go uncorrected to the tune of –50% or more, as something we can feel confident is worth the speculation.
Downside Targets
Meanwhile, we take very seriously the downside targets that we generate based on the Speed Resistance Lines. Keep in mind that as the price of Bitcoin increases, so too does the downside targets. As an example, when Bitcoin peaked at $4,950.72, the downside targets were:
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$2,086.97 (conservative)
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$1,868.61 (mid-range)
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$1,650.24 (extreme)
Now that a new high has been achieved at $5,865.10, the downside targets now rest at the following levels:
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$2,391.76 (conservative)
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$2,173.40 (mid-range)
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$1,955.03 (extreme)
The conservative downside target has been met in all but ONE instance since our tracking of Bitcoin, starting in 2013 (more than 80% coincidence). Unlike in 2014, we are now no longer in support of speculation in Bitcoin. You’re either holding for dear life on the move upward or accepting the downside risk to $2,391.76. New downside targets will be updated with each substantive rise.