On April 2, 2018, when Bitcoin was trading at $7,049, we said the following:
“The $9,148.23 level is the point where we believe the price of Bitcoin could rise to before a retest of the $11,479.73 level, if remotely possible. Based on the recent volume characteristics, we think that the $9,148.23 is in the works.”
As of April 27, 2018, Bitcoin is priced at $9,278.22 and has achieved our target of $9,148.23 as outlined in Dow Theory.
The April 2, 2018 assessment came after our February 17, 2018 review when Bitcoin was trading at $11,092.15 and we said the following:
“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
On April 6, 2018, Bitcoin declined as low as $6,620.41. All of the assessments have been based on the work of Charles Dow’s Dow Theory and Edson Gould.
Below is the updated assessment of where Bitcoin is headed from here.
At this stage in the game, Bitcoin is in a no-man’s land. While there are always three directions that the price could go (up, down, or sideways for a long time) this juncture is strictly to be played for the extreme of going back to the $11,479.73 or $6,914.26 level. There will not be sideways action from here.
To get there from here, Bitcoin needs to exceed $9,653 on the upside or $8,854 on the downside. It is make or break time.
Trading volume appears to be the lone holdout as it has tapered off while the price of Bitcoin has increased in price from the April 5, 2018 low. Failure to exceed the $11,479.73 level will confirm the previous downside bias (declining to the February 2018 low and then going below that level on April 5, 2018) and on declining volume.
However, if Bitcoin exceeds $11,479.73 it would be a huge reversal of the declining trend and could be consider the confirmation of a new bull market with the minimum upside target of $20,000. Under the circumstances described, Bitcoin could achieve a $37,000-$52,000 level before a meaningful downside is experienced.