W.W. Grainger (GWW) is a stock that we currently hold and has run-up significantly in the last year. In this post we will review Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] and Altimeter for GWW.
Speed Resistance Lines are most often used by us to estimate downside targets. Based on the increase from the August 28, 2017 low and the August 21, 2018 high, we have arrived at the following downside targets.
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$295.55 (conservative target)
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$209.30 (mid-range target)
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$123.05 (extreme target)
It should be noted that the chart above does not include the extreme downside target. If the August 21, 2018 price is the peak then our best guess is that GWW will decline below the August 28, 2017 low. Our interpretation on the SRL may not play out for a while, however, the Altimeter adds significant insight.
Since 1994, the Altimeter suggests that at the current price and dividend, GWW is near the historical high end of the range for the stock price.
Yes, the stock could go higher. However, we are uncomfortable with the prospects going forward with a company that has seen the stock price increase beyond the historical average for any index (+100%) in the last year.