On January 17, 2018, we concluded our analysis with the following remarks:
“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here). Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.”
From the peak in the price of Bitcoin at $19,343.04, the decline in Bitcoin that followed was –83%. This falls in alignment with our longstanding view that a drop of –70% is the average decline after a parabolic peak. In addition, the decline in Ethereum was –93%, confirming our work that a drop of –90% or more was possible.
As Bitcoin has increased from the low (so far), we have updated our upside and downside targets below.
As far as we can tell, the remaining short-term upside targets are:
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$10,112.74
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$11,140.96
Meanwhile, the new downside targets are:
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$6,266.97
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$4,586.71
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$2,906.44
We’re very comfortable with the downside targets between $6,266 to $4,586. A rebound from these levels would be a confirmation of the stabilization of Bitcoin. An increase above $11,479.73 would be the strongest indication of a retest of the December 2017 peak.