Category Archives: Quick Take

Quick Take: SNC-Lavalin Crashes

Subscriber S.D. asks:

“Any update on target price is with today’s earning warning?”

Our Quick Take:

On January 28, 2019, SNC-Lavalin (SNC.TO) crashed as much as –28%.

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The reason for the decline was describe by SNC  as “…Inter-governmental relations between Canada and Saudi Arabia, together with unpredictable commodity prices and uncertain client investment plans, have led to deterioration in our near-term prospects which we cannot ignore…(Tomesco, Frederic, “SNC Cuts Forecast as ‘Serious Problem’ Emerges in Mine Unit”. Bloomberg News. January 28, 2019. link.)”

Canaccord Genuity analyst Yuri Lynk says, “Saudi Arabia contributed about 11 percent of SNC’s total revenue in 2017…(Debroop Roy, Allison Lampert, Shailesh Kuber, and Richard Chang. “Canada's SNC-Lavalin cuts 2018 profit forecast on Saudi strain, shares dive”. Reuters. January 28, 2019. link.)

Ongoing controversies have dogged SNC-Lavalin for a while, from bribery scandals to poor “inter-governmental relations.”  However, to address the issue of the impact to our 10-Year Targets for SNC-Lavalin we will defer to the work of Edson Gould. Continue reading

Quick Take: Carlisle Companies

Carlisle Companies (CSL) is a stock we have been following for a long time.  The company is described as a diversified manufacturing company and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.  Our review will cover the Altimeter to determine where Carlisle appears to be currently and where the most ideal time to buy the stock.

Quick Take: Southside Bancshares

A company that has recently caught our eye is Southside Bancshares  (SBSI).  Headquartered in Tyler, Texas, Southside Bancshares is “…a bank holding company for Southside Bank (the Bank). The Company is a community-focused financial institution that offers a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and nonprofit organizations in the communities (source: Google Finance).”

In this review, we’ll examine the Altimeter for Southside Bancshares and attempt to determine ideal times to buy the stock.  In addition, rather than expect that the stock will go from the buy (lowest) end of the range to the sell (highest) end of the range, we’ll track the stock from the buy level to the mean level to see what kind of investment performance is generated.

Quick Take: Stericycle

In our Nasdaq 100 Watch List posted on May 29, 2017, we discussed some attributes of Stericycle (SRCL) that we found interesting.  In this posting, we’ll cover some addition thoughts on the fundamentals of Stericycle.

Quick Take: A Stock Worth Considering Now

Performance Review: Family Dollar

On March 31, 2014, we summarized our thoughts on Family Dollar (FDO) in a Quick Take posting with the following:

“Falling below the $55.07 support line suggests that FDO could decline to $47 in the near term.  Investors interested in FDO could break their investment into at least two purchases, the first being 60% of the intended amount now and the second purchase of 40% at either of the two indicated support levels at $44.95 or $34.83.”

Like moths to a flame, we were encouraged by Value Line Investment Survey’s assessment that “…would-be investors to look else-where.” As we saw it, the fundamentals and technicals supported the idea that Family Dollar was worth investing in (at least 60% of funds committed as part of a balanced portfolio).

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Quick Take: Ecolab Inc.

According to Yahoo!Finance, Ecolab Inc. (ECL), “…provides water, hygiene, and energy technologies and services for customers worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Global Industrial, Global Institutional, and Global Energy. The Global Industrial segment provides water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions primarily to large industrial customers within the manufacturing, food and beverage processing, chemical, mining and primary metals, power generation, pulp and paper, and commercial laundry industries.”

Since the bottom that occurred in the stock market in March 2009, Ecolab Inc. has outpaced the recovery in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by +94% and the S&P 500 by +66%.  At some point the pendulum needs to swing in the opposite direction.  It is our goal to point out the potential scenarios that are most plausible for the reaction that is to come for ECL.  First, we’ll cover some important fundamentals and what they indicate and then we’ll cover the topic of technical aspects of downside risk.

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Quick Take:Suburban Propane

On August 24, 2009, we posted a blurb on Suburban Propane (SPH) titled “Suburban Propane (SPH) Says, ‘Just Add Water’”.  In that piece, we suggested that the shares of SPH were overvalued with the following commentary:

“SPH basically said that it was going to pay down debt with the money raised from the sale of the stock. So what they're doing is watering down the stock (diluting per share earnings) in a maneuver known as ‘Robbing Peter to Pay Paul’ method of accounting. You've got to admit, it is a great strategy from the perspective of the company with overvalued shares but current shareholders are getting the shaft.”

Since August 2009, SPH has followed along a rollercoaster ride going as high as $58 in 2011 and most recently as low as $20.93.

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As the stock has decline over –40% since our August 2009 posting, we believe now is a good time to review SPH.

Quick Take: Helmerich & Payne

It is clear that the commodity market is in the dumps.  The chart below outlines the course of the Bloomberg Commodity Index since the July 2008 peak.

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With the decline that has occurred in the index, it would be obvious to any long-term investor that there are values to be had.  Yeah, there are risks but we’re investors not savers (anyone confused about the difference between saving and investing?  Savers expect the money to be there no matter what, investors are taking the risk that more or less will be there, after the passage of time).  One idea that we think is worth entertaining (or researching) is a stock that we’ve followed for many years.

Quick Take: Dover Corp.

According to Yahoo!Finance, “Dover Corporation manufactures and sells a range of equipment and components, specialty systems, and support services in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Energy, Engineered Systems, Fluids, and Refrigeration & Food Equipment. The Energy segment provides solutions and services for the production and processing of oil, natural gas liquids, and gas to drilling and production, bearings and compression, and automation end markets.”

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The price of Dover Corp. (DOV) has declined by –32.46% since the early July 2014 peak.  Looking at the stock, it appears that the downward spiral is locked in.  The following are some thoughts about the stock.

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Transaction Alert

On Wednesday August 12, 2015, we executed the following transaction(s):

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Quick Take: Hyster-Yale Materials

On October 1, 2012, Hyster-Yale Materials (HY) was spun off from Nacco Industries (NC).  Nacco has been a company of particular interest to us since it has increased the dividend every year for nearly 29 years in a row.

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Quick Take: BHP Billiton

“It is the debtor that is ruined by hard times” -Rutherford B. Hayes, 19th President of the United States

Quick Take: Carbo Ceramics

Review

On August 6, 2012, we purchased Carbo Ceramics with the following rationale:

“Carbo Ceramics (CRR) has been mentioned by us on several occasions.  CRR first appeared on our February 10, 2012 U.S. Dividend Watch List (found here) and was trading at $85.94.  An Altimeter was run on CRR which indicated that the stock would be undervalued at $62.40 (found here).  However, as CRR has experienced a dividend increase of 12.5% since our May 28, 2012 Altimeter, the stock is now considered undervalued at $70.  While we do expect approximately 20% downside risk from the current price, we are comfortable with adding to our position when such a decline takes place.”

As it appeared that Carbo was undervalued between $62.40 and $70, we used 5% of our portfolio to purchase the stock. After August 6, 2012, Carbo Ceramics fell as low as $63.03 and increased as much as $156.

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Update

Below are the updated numbers for Carbo Ceramics after the decline from the most recent peak of $156.  We will cover both aspects of CRR based on Gould’s Altimeter and Speed Resistance Lines.  First, the qualitative review based on the Altimeter.

Quick Take: North West Company

“A good analyst is wrong one-third of the time.  An average one is wrong half the time. A poor analyst is worse than a coin toss.”

source: Chase, C. David. Mugged on Wall Street. Simon and Schuster, New York. page 233.

North West Company (NWC.TO)