When William Peter Hamilton 17 years ago, wrote the first book on the Dow theory he called The Stock Market Barometer, not because of the theory's value in forecasting the course of stock prices, but because of its value as a barometer of business. Most of the literature on the theory written since then has concentrated on technical studies of its method of identifying stock market trends, both bull and bear, shortly after their beginning.In this book Rhea returns to Hamilton's original thesis, at which he pounded away steadily in his editorials in The Wall Street Journal and in comments in Barron's up to the time of his death in 1929. But whereas Hamilton had to depend on observation, Rhea has contributed to this subject the first detailed comparison of all the Dow theory bull and bear market signals back to 1897 with the movements of Barron's business index over the same period.
Rhea is well known as author of Dow Theory Comment, comprising air mail letters attempting to forecast stock and business trends; The Dow Theory, an introduction to the theory together with a complete collection of all of Hamilton's discussions of the price movement; and The Story of the Averages, a play-by-play history of every bull and bear market signal the averages have given since their inception and of the course of the market over the whole period. It is from this work that the Dow theory signals used in the new book are taken.
Business Book of the Week. Barron's. October 31, 1938. page 9
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Historical Data
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1903-1907: Dow Theory
1906-1932: Barron's Averages
1907-1910: Dow Theory
1910-1913: Dow Theory
1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
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