Monthly Archives: May 2011

In the News

Posted on May 28, 2011 by | Comments Off on In the News
How to Get a Special Dividend at Barron’s
The Security I like Best (PDF) by Warren Buffett
College is a scam at MarketWatch
Is Farmland A Smart Hedge Against Inflation?  at Gonzalo Lira
Fidelity and Putnam Among Fund Families Duped by Longtop at Morningstar
The U.S. Postal Service Nears Collapse at BusinessWeek
Prospects Climb at Ryanair at Barron’s
Hedge-fund secrets to beat the market at MarketWatch
Jim Cramer Calls LinkedIn IPO Action A Sham at MarketWatch
The Invisible Stock Bubble at SmartMoney
Will Illumina Find New Life At 50-Day Line? at Investor’s Business Daily
As Lenders Hold Homes in Foreclosure, Sales Are Hurt at NYT
Fleckenstein Doesn't See Technology Industry `Bubble' (Video) at Bloomberg
Facing Up to End of 'Easy Oil' at WSJ
Clearing Firm Rattles Investors at Barron’s
Tag, You're It! Too Big to Fail Risk Transferred, Not Eliminated at The Atlantic
Next Danger: "Splash Crash" at Barron’s
Death Derivatives: Wall Street’s Latest Ill-Advised Maneuver at Minyanville
Biggs Buying as S&P 500 Profit Forecasts Rise Most in a Year at Bloomberg
Berkley Forms New London Unit at Zacks
May Not Be Bearish Enough on China Real Estate: Chanos at Bloomberg
Hartford Sells Unit to CenterState at Zacks
The Dow at 115: Its Close Relationship to GDP at WSJ
Dow Theory: Still Sending a Bullish Signal? at WSJ
Target Says ‘Limited Number’ of Buyers for Card Portfolio at Bloomberg
Farmers Will Do Well at SeekingAlpha

Watch List Notes

It was reported on May 24, 2011 that Carl Icahn sold a large portion of his Biogen Idec (BIIB).  This pretty much closes the initiation of Mr. Icahn’s position in Biogen Idec (BIIB) which was started back in June 2007.  The average compounded annual gain for Mr. Icahn over the four-year period was slightly above 20%.  However, based on Biogen Idec (BIIB) being on our Watch List of October ,with our sell recommendation of Biogen Idec (BIIB) on April 21, 2011, the compounded annualized gain was 77%.
Carl Icahn Buys Biogen Idec at GuruFocus June 2007

Carl Icahn Sells 2.6 Million Shares in Biogen as Other Execs Sell at Barron’s May 2011
October 2009 Nasdaq List at NLO
April 2011 Sell BIIB/Buy TEVA at NLO

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NLO Dividend Watch List: May 27, 2011

Posted on May 27, 2011 by | Leave a comment
The excitement from several IPOs couldn't push the market higher and the market remained flat for another week.  Most of the major indexes including the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100 remained unchanged or slightly down.  Our watch list this week grew from 24 to 29 companies.  The following are stocks on our list that are within 11% of their 52-week low.

May 27, 2011 Watch List

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) Dividend Yield Payout Ratio
HTLF Heartland Financial USA, Inc.  14.09 2.32% 13.17 1.07 0.40 2.84% 37%
TGT Target Corp. 49.37 2.36% 12.07 4.09 1.00 2.03% 24%
CHFC Chemical Financial Corp.  19.29 2.66% 17.54 1.10 0.80 4.15% 73%
ANAT American National Insurance 76.74 3.51% 12.98 5.91 3.08 4.01% 52%
WABC Westamerica BanCorp.  49.87 3.62% 15.68 3.18 1.44 2.89% 45%
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc.  31.56 4.12% 11.31 2.79 1.44 4.56% 52%
SJW SJW Corp. 22.8 4.20% 17.81 1.28 0.69 3.03% 54%
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc.  23.23 4.22% 20.20 1.15 0.64 2.76% 56%
HHS Harte-Hanks, Inc. 8.43 4.33% 10.67 0.79 0.32 3.80% 41%
BXS BanCorp.South Inc. 12.81 4.40% 80.06 0.16 0.04 0.31% 25%
TRH Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. 46.36 4.84% 15.15 3.06 0.84 1.81% 27%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co. 44.97 5.56% 17.16 2.62 1.74 3.87% 66%
SFNC Simmons First National Corp.  25.62 5.96% 11.92 2.15 0.76 2.97% 35%
NTRS Northern Trust Corp.  48.45 6.95% 17.88 2.71 1.12 2.31% 41%
GS Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.   138.66 7.07% 15.19 9.13 1.40 1.01% 15%
TMP Tompkins Financial Corp. 38.56 7.32% 12.32 3.13 1.36 3.53% 43%
SYBT S.Y. BanCorp., Inc.  24.24 7.78% 14.18 1.71 0.72 2.97% 42%
UBSI United Bankshares, Inc.  23.9 8.19% 14.40 1.66 1.20 5.02% 72%
CMA Comerica, Inc. 35.91 8.46% 19.73 1.82 0.40 1.11% 22%
BANF BancFirst Corp.  38.1 9.26% 13.51 2.82 1.00 2.62% 35%
MDP Meredith Corp. 31.6 9.27% 11.09 2.85 1.02 3.23% 36%
BMI Badger Meter, Inc. 37.14 9.30% 20.98 1.77 0.56 1.51% 32%
BOH Bank of Hawaii Corp. 46.98 9.41% 13.09 3.59 1.80 3.83% 50%
AWR American States Water Co. 34.42 10.18% 20.01 1.72 1.12 3.25% 65%
CTBI Community Trust BanCorp. 27.02 10.29% 11.65 2.32 1.22 4.52% 53%
CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. 28.93 10.29% 9.27 3.12 1.88 6.50% 60%
CWT California Water Service 37.37 10.53% 20.31 1.84 1.23 3.29% 67%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 41.3 10.75% 15.18 2.72 2.40 5.81% 88%
GBCI Glacier BanCorp., Inc.  14.24 10.90% 24.14 0.59 0.52 3.65% 88%
29 Companies






Watch List Summary

On top of our list is Heartland Financial (HTLF).  This small cap, south-west regional bank, was eighth on our list two weeks back.  It's currently trading at 7% discount to its book value.  That is very low on a relative basis for a company that typically trades around 1.4x book value for the past five years.  Buying the company now would be just as cheap as buying it at the March 09' low based on the dividend yield (2.84% vs 2.95%).
Next on our list is Target (TGT).  After trading up to $52 two weeks ago, the shares traded down after the quarterly earning report.  It was announced that, as of March 31, 2011, Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) sold all of its TGT holding after shareholders rejected a board of directors nominated by the hedge-fund manager.  We believe Pershing Square's exit was the cause of the recent price declined.  We don't know how long it would take to unwind this large position.  However, we'd guess that it took three months which TGT was trading around $60.  Shares of TGT declined 16.5% since the beginning of the year.  On a relative dividend yield perspective, TGT is a great value trading at double its historical undervalue range of 1%.
Another company we'd like to highlight is American National Insurance (ANAT).  This life insurance and annuity provider is trading at a deep discount.  The current price-to-book is at 0.55 which is far from the 5-year average of 0.8.  To compensate patient investors, ANAT pays 4% in dividends which is higher than the usual 3% over the past 5 years.  Current headline risk remains as natural disasters continue to spread.  We don't know how much natural disasters are going to affect ANAT.  However, we believe it might be a good risk/reward proposition at this level.
Top Five Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from May 28, 2010 and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2010 Price 2011 Price % change
VIVO Meridian Bioscience 17.48 23.3 33.30%
FII Federated Investors 22.21 25.33 14.05%
LLY Eli Lilly & Co. 32.79 37.85 15.43%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp.   60.46 82.63 36.67%
ADM Archer Daniels Midland 25.27 32.21 27.46%



Average 25.38%





DJI Dow Jones Industrial 10,136.63 12,441.58 22.74%
SPX S&P 500 1,089.41 1,331.10 22.18%

Our top five blew past the market by a good margin.  In addition to capital appreciation, most of these stocks pay great dividends.  Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), at the time, paid the smallest dividend yield of the group with yield of 2.37%.  While not great, that was considered undervalued according to ADM's historical relative dividend yield of 2%.  The best performer was Exxon Mobile (XOM), the largest oil and gas producer.  While many people would think it's impossible for a giant such as XOM to move substantially higher, this data proves otherwise. The runner up is one of our favorite stocks, Meridian Bioscience (VIVO).  This medical equipment supplier and a long time dividend achiever has no debt and carries a market cap of $955M.  When it appeared at the low, many people were skeptical of its ability to grow.  One year later, that concern is now behind the company and those who were skeptical missed the opportunity to buy VIVO at the low (within 1.1% of the 52wk low at the time) while sporting a 4.35% yield.

Disclaimer:

On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. We suggest that readers use the March 2009 low (or the companies' most distressed level in the last 2 years) as the downside projection for investing. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. A minimum of 50% decline or the November 2008 to March 2009 low, whichever is lower, would fit that description. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

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In the News

Posted on May 23, 2011 by | Comments Off on In the News
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In the News

Posted on May 22, 2011 by | Comments Off on In the News

 


We’re still on the hunt for the causes of the May 6, 2010 flash crash (Flash Crash Follies).  The more we dig the more we realized that such a crash on a greater scale with more lasting and far reaching negative consequences will be felt as the universe of ETFs grows.

To arrive at our conclusion, along with all the other articles we’ve submitted on the topic, we’ve pulled the earliest reference to a “flash crash” in the article titled, “Gone in 60 seconds: ETF holders lost $20M; Pricing glitch produces big winners, big losers.”  Of course, at the time, December 17, 2004, it was called a “pricing glitch” and not a flash crash.  However, all of the features exhibited in that crash of the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQ), now known as an ETF, was very much a characteristic of what happen on May 6, 2010. 

One quote that we especially enjoyed from the January 24, 2005 article was the quote by Nasdaq vice-president Chris Concannon who said:
"In the early QQQ trading, there were very few liquidity providers facilitating trading. That obviously changed immediately, and we will never see something like this happen again.'' 
Apparently, never has come much sooner than previously thought.

The solution to the problem of future flash crashes is to do away with all ETF and derivative related products for retail investors.  However, we understand the blithe nature of such a proposition.  To remedy this thought and to facility the investor’s desire to take advantage of future price discrepancies (speculate), we have thought openly of placing limit orders to buy 30% to 50% below the prevailing price of the Nasdaq 100 ETF or other ETFs that we’d like to own if the price was right. 

Our use of limit orders to buy would be with the understanding that if the desired price target isn’t hit then our request would not be filled.  Unless you have a marginable account, you’d have to be very clear that cash has been set aside for the quantity and approximate price that you’d make your purchase.  Additionally, our discussion of the use of automated orders and ETFs stand in apparent contradiction to our writings on the respective topics (article on automated order here) (articles on ETFs here).
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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 21, 2011

Posted on May 21, 2011 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 21, 2011
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 19% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models. Although these companies are very risky, they provide significant opportunity to outperform the market in the coming year.

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Symbol
Name
Price
P/E
EPS
Yield
P/B
% from low
Staples, Inc.
$16.37
13.53
1.21
2.40%
1.72
0.00%
Cisco Systems, Inc.
$16.53
12.9
1.28
1.40%
1.94
1.16%
Research In Motion
$43.52
6.86
6.34
0.00%
2.58
2.33%
Marvell Technology
$14.34
10.7
1.34
0.00%
1.72
3.39%
Microsoft Corp.
$24.49
9.73
2.52
2.60%
3.9
7.74%
Akamai Tech.
$34.20
36.19
0.95
0.00%
2.76
8.30%
Urban Outfitters
$31.51
20.65
1.53
0.00%
3.96
8.54%
Teva Pharmaceutical
$49.87
13.41
3.72
1.60%
1.94
11.17%
Broadcom Corp.
$33.51
16.91
1.98
1.10%
3.12
12.07%
Activision
$11.60
26.85
0.43
1.40%
1.32
15.88%
Infosys
$62.91
24.01
2.62
0.70%
5.85
18.07%
Qiagen
$20.05
34.57
0.58
0.00%
1.87
18.92%


Watch List Summary

Is Staples (SPLS) going to add one more notch to the Stadium Effect theory (pdf link)?  This theory says that after a company acquires the naming rights to a major league sports team, the stock of such a company typically underperforms the market (if it doesn't go out of business altogether).  Staples (SPLS) is at the very low as of the close of market on Friday May 20, 2011.  We're not bold enough to jump on board this stock at the moment, and this is saying a lot for a couple of guys who relish purchases at a new low.

Watch List Top 5 Performance Review

In our review of the watch list dated May 21, 2010, we found that all the stocks had gains while three of the top 5 outperformed the Nasdaq 100.  Qualcomm (QCOM), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Genzyme (GENZ) was among our favorites at the time the list was published.  Ryanair (RYAAY) was a surprise to us since the airline industry is known for failure and bankruptcy.

Symbol Name 2010 2011 gain/loss
GILD Gilead Sciences 36.57 40.98 12.06%
RYAAY Ryanair 23.14 30.02 29.73%
QCOM QUALCOMM 35.89 57.38 59.88%
ATVI Activision 10.24 11.6 13.28%
GENZ Genzyme 49.41 acquired 51.02%
Average gain 33.19%
^NDX Nasdaq 100 1822.77 2351.43 29.00%
percentage change in chart is approximate only


In the News
We couldn't help but notice the article from Barron's titled "Price War Brewing on Cigarettes?" and the Seeking Alpha article titled "Cigarette Stocks Burning Up to New Highs." 
The Barron's article suggests that margins will be squeezed as competition for market share increases.  the companies mentioned by Barron's are Imperial Tobacco (ITYBY), Philip Morris (PM), British American Tobacco (BTI) and Altria (MO).
The SeekingAlpha article says that despite the fact that cigarette stocks are at a new high, there is still room to grow on the upside.  The companies mentioned in the Seeking Alpha are Lorrillard (LO), Altria (MO), Philip Morris (PM) and Reynolds American (RAI).   
We're on the side of Barron's.  As a price war breaks out, the earnings will be lower than expected and that will translate in a decline in the stock price.  We'll check back a year from now to see what the performance of the cigarette manufacturers look like.

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In The News

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NLO Canadian Dividend List: May 13, 2011

Posted on May 15, 2011 by | Leave a comment
This list of Canadian Dividend Achievers, published by Mergent's, includes current and former Canadian Dividend Achievers and then ranking the companies based on those closest to the 52-week low as of May 13, 2011.

It is required, on the part of readers and investors, to verify the information before taking any action to buy or sell based on news or data found on our site. Reliable information on these companies is widely available through many different sources. We hope to refer you to the best sources as we come across them.
Symbol Name Price EPS P/E Beta % from low
TRI Thomson Reuters 37.78 1.18 32.02 0.38 5.38%
RCI.B Rogers Comm. 35.82 2.53 14.15 0.51 7.60%
SJR.B Shaw Comm. 20.00 1.06 18.95 0.31 8.11%
EMP.A Empire Co. Ltd. 54.45 5.13 10.61 0.04 8.51%
CJR.B Corus Ent. Inc. 20.22 1.34 15.15 0.88 10.73%
CP Canadian Pacific 59.75 3.45 17.34 0.73 11.54%
POW Power Corp 28.36 1.89 15.04 0.90 13.53%
GWO Great-West Lifeco 26.65 1.69 15.81 0.92 14.04%
MRU.A Metro, Inc. 47.15 3.68 12.81 0.20 14.97%
PWF Power Financial 31.40 2.10 14.97 0.91 16.30%
CCO Cameco Corp. 25.44 1.17 21.70 0.98 17.56%
CTC.A Canadian Tire Corp. 62.38 5.56 11.21 0.65 18.77%
Watch List Performance Summary
This performance review will focus on the Canadian Dividend Achievers from our last watch list dated May 25, 2010.

Symbol Name 25-May-10 15-May-11
% Change
SU.TO SUNCOR ENERGY INC. 30.66 38.57
25.80%
IMO.TO IMPERIAL OIL 39.20 45.15
15.18%
CLC-UN.TO CML HEALTHCARE 10.75 9.40
-12.56%
ESI.TO ENSIGN ENERGY SRV 12.75 18.44
44.63%
IGM.TO IGM FINANCIAL INC. 39.19 48.77
24.45%
- - - Average
19.50%
^GSPTSE Toronto Stock Exchange 11518.08 13377.16
16.14%
Leading the list was Ensign Energy with a 44.63% return.  The worst performing stock on the list was the CML Healthcare Income Fund with a loss of -12.56%. Four of the 5 stocks achieved our minimum gain of 10% in 9 months.  Keep in mind that these returns only account for the capital appreciation and do not include the dividend yield at the time the list was generated.
*CML Healthcare Income Fund excluded due to charting inaccuracies
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NLO Dividend Watch List: May 13, 2011

Posted on May 13, 2011 by | Leave a comment
The market continues to struggle to move higher.  Most major indexes are virtually flat for the week.  Our watch list this week contains 24 companies that are within 11% of their 52-week low.  The following is our list for Friday the 13th.

May 13, 2011 Watch List

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) Dividend Yield Payout Ratio
SJW SJW Corp. 22.44 0.85% 17.53 1.28 0.69 3.07% 54%
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc.  22.98 3.10% 19.98 1.15 0.64 2.79% 56%
WABC Westamerica BanCorp.  49.64 3.14% 15.61 3.18 1.44 2.90% 45%
HHS Harte-Hanks, Inc. 8.75 3.92% 11.08 0.79 0.32 3.66% 41%
CHFC Chemical Financial Corp.  19.67 4.68% 17.88 1.10 0.80 4.07% 73%
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc.  31.93 5.34% 11.44 2.79 1.44 4.51% 52%
BXS BanCorp.South Inc. 12.93 5.38% 80.81 0.16 0.04 0.31% 25%
HTLF Heartland Financial USA, Inc.  14.6 6.03% 13.64 1.07 0.40 2.74% 37%
SFNC Simmons First National Corp.  25.68 6.20% 11.94 2.15 0.76 2.96% 35%
BMI Badger Meter, Inc. 36.14 6.36% 20.42 1.77 0.56 1.55% 32%
NTRS Northern Trust Corp.  48.24 6.49% 17.80 2.71 1.12 2.32% 41%
TGT Target Corp. 51.52 6.82% 12.88 4.00 1.00 1.94% 25%
CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. 28.04 6.90% 8.99 3.12 1.88 6.70% 60%
AWR American States Water Co. 33.52 7.30% 18.94 1.77 1.12 3.34% 63%
SYBT S.Y. BanCorp., Inc.  24.05 7.90% 14.06 1.71 0.72 2.99% 42%
TRH Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. 47.75 8.33% 15.60 3.06 0.84 1.76% 27%
CWT California Water Service 36.81 8.87% 20.34 1.81 1.23 3.34% 68%
WFSL Washington Federal, Inc.  15.27 9.31% 21.81 0.70 0.24 1.57% 34%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co. 45.87 9.47% 16.80 2.73 1.74 3.79% 64%
SHEN Shenandoah Telecom 16.98 9.55% 22.34 0.76 0.33 1.94% 43%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 40.87 9.60% 15.03 2.72 2.40 5.87% 88%
CMA Comerica, Inc. 36.39 9.91% 19.99 1.82 0.40 1.10% 22%
CTBI Community Trust BanCorp. 26.95 9.98% 11.62 2.32 1.22 4.53% 53%
TMP Tompkins Financial Corp. 39.72 10.55% 12.69 3.13 1.36 3.42% 43%
24 Companies






Watch List Summary

SJW Corp. or San Jose Water (SJW) remain at the top of our list but the price fell just slightly compared to our last posting. Again, the previous time this company appeared on our dividend watch list back on December 18, 2009. At that time, SJW was trading at $21.93 and had a P/E ratio of 24.42. SJW is now trading with a P/E ratio of 17.7 and a dividend yield of 3.05% despite having a higher absolute price. These numbers reflect that the company is able to consistently grow their earnings while increasing their dividends. After being on our list in December 2009, SJW rose above $27 and has steadily maintained a rising trend above $24 until recently.

Going down the list, we'd like to highlight Simmons First National (SFNC).  Our view of the company remains unchanged.  It is a play on farmland boom we expect to see down the road.  Read more on SFNC in our Investment Observation.

Target (TGT) is another name that the New Low team is focusing on.  With gas price above $4 for the most of the country,  the retail sector may not be the place to be.  But with Target's ability to bring their private label brand, Up & Up, with a variety of products, we think this is an overlooked area.  In addition, the credit card division within Target could possibly be a hidden value.  The 2% yield is at a historical high for the company and we think this is a good risk-reward opportunity.

This week we say goodbye to Sysco Foods (SYY) from our watch list.  It had been on our watch list since the beginning of the year and we've pounded the table several times about this stock.  Despite the negativity about pricing, the latest earnings report displayed the company's ability to manage the challenging environment.  For more on Sysco, click here.

Top Five Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from May 14, 2010 and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
Symbol Name 2010 Price 2011 Price % change
MON Monsanto Co. 54.61 63.79 16.81%
LLY Eli Lilly & Co. 33.92 38.95 14.83%
FRS Frisch's Restaurants, Inc 21.01 21.85 4.00%
FII Federated Investors Inc 23.16 26.14 12.87%
HSC Harsco Corp. 27.56 33.65 22.10%



Average 14.12%





DJI Dow Jones Industrial 10,620.16 12,595.75 18.60%
SPX S&P 500 1,135.68 1,337.77 17.79%
 

There are some interesting things to take from this chart.  First, noticed the ability for Harso (HSC) to rally from -30% to almost up 30%.  This company is in the steel / basic material sector and as we know, the sector has done quite well.  Monsanto (MON) may have tagged along for the ride.  Although there was heavy criticism of MON's key product, Roundup, that didn't stop the stock from rising above 30%.  With basic material costs rising, it's no wonder that Frisch's Restaurant (FRS) suffered.  A 15% hike in dividend back in September didn't do much either.  Typically, this stock is consider undervalued at 3% yield.  Our May watch list had FRS yielding 2.5%.

Disclaimer:
On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. We suggest that readers use the March 2009 low (or the companies' most distressed level in the last 2 years) as the downside projection for investing. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. A minimum of 50% decline or the November 2008 to March 2009 low, whichever is lower, would fit that description. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

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Top 5 on Watch List May Be Worth Selling

Posted on May 12, 2011 by | Leave a comment
The September 10th Watch List has performed exceptionally and may require your attention if you bought any of the top 5. 

The worst performing of the top 5 in the last 8 months has been Tootsie Roll (TR) with 26.23%. Beckman Coulter (BEC) exceeded even our most conservatives estimates (article here).  Our recent assessment of West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) suggests that selling and seeking the next best alternative might be in order. 

Considering that this is a list of dividend stocks, I would say that our job is done here.

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Sysco (SYY) Earnings Report Breakdown

Posted on May 9, 2011 by | Leave a comment
We'd like to share a reader's response to our most recent watch list on May 7, 2011. The reader commented / asked:
"I like SYY for their divi growth long term, but...any worry at all about the long summer and rising gas prices affecting the cost of running their trucking network? More $ to move their product and less $ for consumers to spend on eating out."
Our response:
"All those are great concerns but I think the important question is whether they are priced in or not. My parents run several restaurants and going through SYY is a must. Raising price is always harder in the short-term. But longer term, they should (will) be able to raise price. The article on restaurants lift prices is a first sign that they are passing this on to consumers. This should allow SYY to up their price.  Restaurants or any producers rarely lower price after they raise it. But the cost (raw materials) do fluctuate. Our family restaurants raised price in early 2008 when oil hit $100 but we never lower them despite correction in the commodities market. Our margin expanded, profit rose, and cash built. It's hard to predict where SYY is at this moment but we believe that you are not paying up at this level, especially when its dividend yield is higher than historical average."
We actually didn't consider that Sysco (SYY) would be reporting their earnings today!  However, that didn't matter much because they beat earnings estimates ($0.44 vs $0.41) which sent the stock up 10% today.  Investors should ponder how is it possible that a food stock can move up 10% despite rising raw material costs?  Although it doesn't seem to make sense, let us try to explain the why or how this could occur.
Consensus Swings Wildly
Sysco (SYY) appeared in the top 5 of our watch list back in February 11, 2011.  At the time, many doubts and fears circled the stock.  The table below, from CNBC, shows that there were only two recommendations to buy versus six hold recommendations. This implies that with shares at the 52-wk low the risks may have been priced in.

It Seems Like Basic Economics
In the basic economics of supply and demand (the answer to almost all econ questions), we learned about price elasticity.  Many textbooks on the subject use food as an example of price elasticity which often states that food prices are inelastic in the short-term but over the long-run, they almost always correct.  This is the case with Sysco (SYY).  As I said in the above, "Raising price is always harder in the short-term. But longer term, they should (will) be able to raise price[s]."
To echo that thought, here's a quote from Barron's article "Though steep food-price inflation is an ongoing concern, Sysco management has effectively offset higher costs with higher prices, a process that will become easier as the restaurants that are its customers begin to raise prices themselves."  Stock prices reflect the short-term but if you can stick it out (this is where dividends are critical for long-term investors) for the long-term, you'll be rewarded for your patience.
Key Takeaway
We spoke about Sysco several times in our watch list summary like in December 2008 and February 2011.  Whenever the stock appeared on our list, it represented a great starting point for research.  The New Low team often ignores (at our own peril) what analysts' say because more often than not we find that their outlook has been priced in.  Analysts fear that the company would have trouble not being able to pass price increases on obviously didn't look too hard for answer.  Once a company raise prices, they never lower them.  But typically the raw costs often fall.  This spread goes directly to the bottom line of producers.  We've seen this happen to Heinz (HNZ), Tootsie Roll (TR), and most recently, Conagra (CAG). 
Simply looking back at history may have proven useful.  Sysco was founded in 1969 right before the height of inflation in the 1970s.  They made it out alive then and our guess is that they will probably make it out again.

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Complete 2008 Transaction Summary

Posted on May 8, 2011 by | Leave a comment
We are constantly reviewing our 2008 transactions to determine if there is anything new that we could learn about how a positive gain of 14.35% could be accomplished when major stock markets around the world had declined by 40% or more. 
It should be noted that for the portfolio in question, there were no material gains derived from precious metals stocks and short selling ETFs. Also worthy of mention is that by the end of September, the portfolio had gains of 36.35%.
Below are all of the opened and closed transactions for 2008 with the percentage realized gain or loss along with the percentage of the portfolio of each position.
Closed positions are those that were done after the purchase of the stock took place. Therefore, purchases that took place in 2007 may have been close in 2008 while purchases in late 2008 are reflected a gain or loss until 2009. As an example, FDO was purchased in late December 2007 and sold late January 2008.  Several transactions that took place after November 2008 were not closed until 2009 and are not listed.
All of these transactions took place within tax deferred accounts. After transaction costs, the total return in the portfolio for 2008 was 14.35%. The dividend yield received on the account was 2.53%, with the dividend accounting for 17.62% of the total change in the account value. 
Another tax deferred portfolio being managed at the same time did not include precious metals trades or short ETFs (wife's account) had an end of September gain of over 45%.
The general strategy that was utilized is based on our buying stocks at or near a new low and not hold for the "long term."  In addition, we pay strict attention to how much we might lose before buying the stock.  Our strategy is outlined in every Investment Observation and Sell Recommendation.  Comments and insights are appreciated since we are students of the market.   
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NLO Dividend Watch List

Posted on May 7, 2011 by | 2 comments
The market turned down this week which was possibly commodities driven.  As we've demonstrated statistically in our 2008 commentary on gold, and every since, that when the Dow declines by more than 10%, gold and gold stocks fall by a greater magnitude.  We're not there yet, however the precious metals and the Dow are tracking each other very closely.  The S&P fell roughly 1.7% while the Dow dropped slightly less at 1.3%.  The beginning of May is looking like the old saying, "sell in May and go away."
Our watch list this week contains 25 companies that are within 11% of their 52-week low.
May 6, 2011 Watch List
Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) Dividend Yield Payout Ratio
SJW SJW Corp. 22.53 1.26% 17.33 1.30 0.69 3.06% 53%
WABC Westamerica BanCorp.  49.6 3.05% 15.60 3.18 1.44 2.90% 45%
CHFC Chemical Financial Corp.  19.47 3.62% 17.70 1.10 0.80 4.11% 73%
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc.  23.1 3.63% 19.41 1.19 0.64 2.77% 54%
TGT Target Corp. 50.51 4.73% 12.63 4.00 1.00 1.98% 25%
SYY Sysco Corp. 28.51 5.09% 14.70 1.94 1.04 3.65% 54%
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc.  31.87 5.15% 13.17 2.42 1.44 4.52% 60%
HHS Harte-Hanks, Inc. 8.89 5.58% 11.25 0.79 0.32 3.60% 41%
HTLF Heartland Financial USA, Inc.  14.57 5.81% 13.62 1.07 0.40 2.75% 37%
CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. 27.76 5.83% 8.90 3.12 1.88 6.77% 60%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co. 44.61 6.47% 16.34 2.73 1.74 3.90% 64%
SHEN Shenandoah Telecom 16.52 6.58% 21.74 0.76 0.33 2.00% 43%
NTRS Northern Trust Corp.  48.43 6.91% 17.87 2.71 1.12 2.31% 41%
SFNC Simmons First National Corp.  25.89 7.07% 12.04 2.15 0.76 2.94% 35%
BXS BanCorp.South Inc. 13.17 7.33% 82.31 0.16 0.04 0.30% 25%
BMI Badger Meter, Inc. 36.59 7.68% 20.67 1.77 0.56 1.53% 32%
AWR American States Water Co. 33.65 7.71% 19.01 1.77 1.12 3.33% 63%
SYBT S.Y. BanCorp., Inc.  24.01 7.72% 14.04 1.71 0.72 3.00% 42%
CWT California Water Service 36.49 7.93% 20.16 1.81 1.23 3.37% 68%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 40.78 9.36% 14.67 2.78 2.40 5.89% 86%
TRH Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. 48.35 9.69% 15.80 3.06 0.84 1.74% 27%
WFSL Washington Federal, Inc.  15.42 10.38% 22.03 0.70 0.24 1.56% 34%
AROW Arrow Financial Corp.  23.53 10.51% 12.13 1.94 1.00 4.25% 52%
CTBI Community Trust BanCorp. 27.08 10.53% 11.67 2.32 1.22 4.51% 53%
TMP Tompkins Financial Corp. 39.75 10.63% 12.70 3.13 1.36 3.42% 43%
25 Companies






Watch List Summary
SJW Corp. or San Jose Water (SJW) last appeared on our dividend watch list back on December 18, 2009. At that time, SJW was trading at $21.93 and had a P/E ratio of 24.42.  SJW is now trading with a P/E ratio of 17.7 and a dividend yield of 3.05% despite reflecting a higher absolute price. These numbers reflect that the company is able to consistently grow their earnings while increasing their dividends. After being on our list in December 2009, SJW rose above $27 and has steadily maintained a rising trend above $24 until recently.
Sysco Foods (SYY) was last on our dividend watch list July 2009. At the time of our 2009 watch list, SYY was trading at $21.51 with a P/E ratio of 12 and a dividend yield of 4.40%.  Currently, Sysco (SYY) is trading at $28.45 and has a P/E ratio of 14. The annual dividend has increased by 8% since July 2009. Concerns about Sysco not being able to pass on the increase commodity prices is finally percolating down to the consumer as reflected in the recent Bloomberg article “Restaurants Lift Prices as Inflation Hawks See Fed Behind Curve.”
New addition to this list is Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), a major egg producers.  We decided to track CALM after evaluating its dividend policy that was established in 2007.  Under CALM's guidelines, the company will payout one-third (1/3) of quarterly income. Essentially, this mean they have tied their distribution to the profitability of the company.  As such, the 6.7% dividend yield may not hold.  We believe that this is a very prudent way to manage dividend payouts. The result is extraordinary and can be seen here. Shares of CALM have gained 16% since the implementation of this dividend policy.
Top Five Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from May 7, 2010 and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
Symbol Name 2010 Price 2011 Price % change
MON Monsanto Co. 59.09 65.27 10.46%
HSC Harsco Corp. 26.38 34.29 29.98%
FRS Frisch's Restaurants, Inc 20.77 23.1 11.22%
SHEN Shenandoah Telecom 16.95 16.52 -2.54%
VIVO Meridian Bioscience Inc.  18.29 23.66 29.36%



Average 15.70%





DJI Dow Jones Industrial 10,380.43 12,638.74 21.76%
SPX S&P 500 1,110.88 1,340.20 20.64%
Chart
The average performance of our top five stocks underperformed the market. Shenandoah (SHEN) underperformed the market and its peer over one year but shares bumped the 10% gain several times through out the year.  Any investor looking into this stock should be aware that they pay dividend once a year during November. Please note that these figure exclude dividends and are based purely on price appreciation.
Disclaimer:
On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. We suggest that readers use the March 2009 low (or the companies' most distressed level in the last 2 years) as the downside projection for investing. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. A minimum of 50% decline or the November 2008 to March 2009 low, whichever is lower, would fit that description. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

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West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) Requires Your Attention

Posted on May 6, 2011 by | 2 comments
We couldn’t help but notice that West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is now trading at $46 a share.  This is 28.86% above our investment observation on October 17, 2010, when West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) was at the $36 level.
Our recommendation of WST came after the stock price fell within 1% of the 52-week low and was at the top of our bi-weekly NLO Dividend Watch List for Friday, September 24, 2010.
Our sell recommendation of WST came on December 11, 2010.  In the sell recommendation, we indicated that the stock had upside resistance at the $44 and $52 level.  Our annualized return based on that sell recommendation was approximately 40% from October 17th to December 11th.
We believe that those who had bought WST on our NLO Dividend Watch List in September or our specific recommendation back in October should reconsider the merits of continuing to retain ownership of the stock.  From our original recommendation of the stock to the current price, the annualized return would be a little over 50%.  Putting this in perspective, the appreciation achieved so far is equivalent to 13 years of dividend income.  These gains could soon prove to be fleeting based on the signals provided by the recent stock activity.
In the chart below, you will find that West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) has come off of its high of $47.96 on May 2, 2011.  This activity is not dissimilar to the price activity that occurred in April of 2010.  The peaks experienced in April and May could reflect seasonal activity associated with this particular stock.
While the possibility of West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) going above the previous highs is not out of the question, we’d rather opt for readers of our site to preserve the gains that have been accomplished thus far.  We will have an updated NLO Dividend Watch List shortly and recommend rigorous due diligence on the new opportunities that are presented.
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iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Debrief

Posted on May 5, 2011 by | Leave a comment
On April 14, 2011, we provided what we believed to be the downside target for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) in anticipation of the current decline that is taking place using Edson Gould’s speed resistance lines (article here).  Although appearing to be very similar, there is a distinct difference between Gould’s resistance lines and Charles Dow’s 1/3 support levels.  Gould’s lines have support levels based on 1/3 of high while Dow’s support levels are based on 1/3 the difference between the prior bottom and the most recent high.

 

In this review we’re going to tackle the trading pattern of the very controversial iShares Silver Trust (SLV). In the chart below we have drawn the Dow Theory support levels where the price of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is likely to revert to as part of a normal reaction.  As a point of clarification, according to Dow Theory, a bear market does not begin until the index or stock falls by at least 1/3 of the prior rise.  In the case of (SLV), today’s closing price at $33.72 heralds what is sufficiently below the first support $34.52 and should be considered to be a bear market. 

 

Although this could be considered a bear market based on Dow Theory, we only need to look back to 2008 to know how quickly and viciously a bear market in precious metals can begin and end.  The precious metals bear market of 2008 crushed the XAU gold and silver stock index with a 68% decline in eight months.  During the same time, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) declined slightly more that 55%.  

 

Bear market or not, some observations are worth considering.  First, in the chart below, the overall pattern of the price decline in (SLV) for the Dow Theory indication numbered 1 (in green) is very similar to the current decline represented with the Dow Theory indication numbered 2 (in blue).  Since Dow Theory works on a relative basis, once initiated at a major low, the signals provided are not confused through the distortions of large or small numbers.  Headlines about SLV having declines of historic proportions are grossly exaggerated if there is no comparison on a percentage basis and compared to prior declines.

Second, at the beginning of each run at point 1 and 2, the price of SLV bounced off of the middle line B (also known as the 2/3 support line) before going parabolic. 

Finally, the decline from each peak was rapid and vicious.  One-third of the prior rise was wiped out in a matter of days after the peak.

 

 

What remains is a high level of uncertainty for (SLV) going forward.  However, in general, we should see SLV tread water for a brief period of time before falling back to the prior low which began with the current run back in November 2008.   Dow Theory suggests that a reasonable buying opportunity would exist at below line B (blue line B).  However, we wouldn’t jump in at the slightest move below line B.  Instead, we’d like to see the price decline to the dashed blue line at $15.41 or below.

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Posted in Dow Theory, Edson Gould, gold, iShares Silver Trust, Silver, SLV, XAU