Performance Review
The analyst estimates for the U.S. Dividend Watch List published on March 4, 2016 show a relatively consistent pattern. The level of out-performance was primarily centered on the stocks that were considered to be high risk while stocks most favored by analysts barely exceeded their expected 1-year returns, on a relative basis. The categories that we’ve created are displayed below:
While the actual return for the “high expectation, low return” category exceeded the analyst estimates by +15.45%, the margin was far less than the +36.93% and +47.11% for the “average risk” and “high risk” groups, respectively.
Stocks that stood out in the past year are those that actually had greater percentage change from the March 4, 2016 level than the March 3, 2017 level. These are stocks that are down from their highs. It should be noted that none of these standout stocks are found in the “high expectation” category and three of the four stocks are found in the “average risk” group.
