Monthly Archives: October 2017

Gold Stock Indicator: October 2017

Below is the updated Gold Stock Indicator as of October 31, 2017:

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: October 2017

Performance Review

This is the performance from the October 1, 2016 Nasdaq 100 Watch List:

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The entire watch list average a gain of +2.43% compared to the analyst estimate of +8.70%.  The watch list categories had the following performance:

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The performance in the last year was horrendous for the expectations that we set on the Nasdaq watch list.  Compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +27% the above watch list gained a meager +2.43%.  Adding insult to injury was the section labeled “Sell the Principal” where stocks that seemed to have excessive gains were thought by us to have warranted selling the principal.

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Massive gains in the five listed stocks averaged a gain of +73.74% in the last year.  That leaves little to debate in terms of the success or failure to the idea of selling the principal.

Interest Rate Monitor: October 2017

In our August 2017 Interest Rate Monitor, we said the following:

“…we’re holding to the idea that the current range in the trend will remain, until proven otherwise.”

As seen in the chart below, the range that we spoke of is holding strong, for now.

Insurance Watch List: October 2017

Performance Review

From our October 2016 Insurance Watch List,  we have the following performance of the entire watch list.

symbol name % chg
CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. 56.67%
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. 24.84%
HALL Hallmark Financial Services Inc. 12.98%
ORI Old Republic International Corp. 6.44%

The average change for the list was +25.23% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +22.51%. Below is the performance of the same stocks relative to the analyst estimates:

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How’s this for a stunner?  Take a look at the performance Old Republic Title (ORI).  What in the world is that all about?  The analysts called for a +6.44% gain and that is exactly the amount the stock has increased one year later.  Let’s dare them to do it two years in a row.

The stock that we highlighted was Hallmark Financial Services (HALL). We pointed out the downside target however only one ($9.68) was achieved.  The underperformance of HALL was expected and therefore continues to put the stock in the position of being undervalued at the current price.

In our section titled “Sell the Principal” we highlighted the stocks that we thought investors should consider selling the principal.  Below is the performance of those stocks.

symbol name % chg
GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. -32.67%
STC Stewart Information Services -17.39%
KFS Kingsway Financial Services Inc. -2.65%
NATL National Interstate Corporation 0.25%
ENH Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. 1.19%
CRD-B Crawford & Company 1.97%
HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. 9.72%
PFG Principal Financial Group Inc. 30.14%
SYCRF Syncora Holdings Ltd. 36.30%
UNM Unum Group 44.21%
LNC Lincoln National Corporation 58.14%

Four stocks exceeded the average return of the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK). The average change of the entire list increased by +11.74% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +22.51%.

October 2017 Insurance Watch List

Below is the latest list of stocks that we’re watching and the analyst estimates for the stocks:

Dow Declines in Recessions

Below is the data of Dow Jones Industrial Average declines in the period indicated as a recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) from 1902 to 2009.  The percentage change is arrived at by taking the first trading day of the month indicated as the beginning of a recession and the last trading day of the month indicated as the end of the recession.

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Eddie Lampert: The Long Run has Voted

In an article dated October 24, 2017 on BNN, Eddie Lampert, CEO of Sears Holdings complained that “Sears Canada could have avoided liquidation.”

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Lampert, who has been lauded as the next Warren Buffett, seems to think that Sears Canada executive chairman Brandon Stranzl made a mistake when he introduced his “Sears 2.0” strategy in 2016.  Lampert, through his ESL Holdings held a large stake in Sears Canada and said that, “ESL believed that [Sears 2.0] strategy was highly risky and unlikely to succeed.”

Let’s look at the failings of Brandon Stranzl at Sears Canada and Eddie Lampert at Sears Holdings by comparing the stock prices of the respective companies.  As Warren Buffett’s mentor Benjamin Graham said, “in the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

Brandon Stranzl tenure at Sears Canada:

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Eddie Lampert tenure at Sears Holdings:

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There is such a refreshing difference between the Lampert years at Sears Holdings compared to the job done by Stranzl.  The primary difference is that Sears Holdings was already in a rising trend in the stock price before Lampert took over.  Therefore, we cannot necessarily attribute the near doubling in price to the fact that Lampert did anything revolutionary at the company.

Ultimately, Lampert, when faced with challenges, was not equal to the task, as reflected in the subsequent decline in Sears Holdings.  Contrast Lampert’s good fortune of taking over when the company stock price was already in a rising trend to the challenge of Stranzl who took over Sears Canada after the stock price had been in a multiyear declining trend.

If the passage of time truly weighs the impact of stock value then Lampert’s years have proven to be of little merit to the shareholders of Sears Holdings.  Meanwhile, Stranzl’s two year history at Sears Canada was merely a vote of no confidence as a result of prior lack of leadership.

Performance Review: October 23, 2015

Below is the 2-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from October 23, 2015 to October 26, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Gundlach: Tending to His Flock

In a recent Vanity Fair article by William Cohan, DoubleLine Capital bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach is interviewed regarding his take on bonds. 

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Gundlach’s answer is straightforward, “Why would anyone invest in bonds?”  Seldom does anyone get such a contrasting view on an investment that is counter to their own best interests.  And yet, somehow, Gundlach manages to go downhill from there.

Dow Altimeter Review

In the period from 1920 to 1989, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would consistently be undervalued or overvalued at set Altimeter levels (15 and 30, respectively).  An investor could almost count on these general points to accumulate and sell stocks without fail.  Note the various dates when a “sell” or “buy” indication was given.  All points until after 1987 were useful indications for market under or over valuation.

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After 1987, the Altimeter for the Dow Jones Industrial Average started to change.  What has changed that made the Altimeter vary so much from the normal levels?  We think it has to do with the selection of companies that are included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with less of an emphasis on dividend payments, lower dividend yields and lower relative payout ratios.  In addition, inclusion of companies like Visa, Apple, Microsoft, Intel and Cisco Systems has shifted the course of the index which might more appropriately reflect the changing nature of the U.S. economy, as seen in the chart below.

Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Performance Review

On October 21, 2016, we posted analyst estimates for the expected gains for our watch list stocks dated October 14, 2016.  Below is the performance review of the stocks that were part of that assessment.

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At the time, we grouped the stocks into three separate categories (“high risk, high return,” “average risk, average return,” and “high expectation, low return”) as seen in the chart below:

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As separate categories, the returns were as follows:

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We have to be mindful of the fact that the high, average, and low returns are based on long term expectations for similar stocks.  When contrasted against the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained +27.91% over the same time, the gains of each category are hardly “high” or “average.”

California Real Estate Trends

Two indicators of the California real estate market that we’re tracking are the median price of existing detached homes and the violations of California regulations for real estate licensees, agents, brokers and non-licensed individual/firms involved in real estate transactions*.  Below we have the monthly and 12-month moving average data for these two series from 1990 to the present.

U.S Dividend Watch List: October 20, 2017

The bull market march on this week. The S&P 500 is only 25 points away from 2,600. Though it is difficult to find quality companies to purchase at a discount price when the market is at the all-time high, we managed to put together a list of high quality companies which pay dividend trading near their yearly low. Below are list of 30 companies for this week. Continue reading

Performance Review: October 19, 2012

Below is the 5-year performance of our Dividend Watch List from October 19, 2012 to October 20, 2017 as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Real Estate Review

On September 12, 2016, we assess the real estate market.  In this update, we’ll reconsider the points that we made to determine the progress that has been made with our analysis.  There are some surprises as we go through the limit info that is tracked.

In this assessment, we track the Housing Starts of New Privately Owned Housing Units.  At the time of the September 2016 review, we said the following:

“The latest trend from September 2015 to the present appears to show topping out action as the Housing Starts data seems to be running out of steam.  Additionally, the dotted red line in the chart shows the Dow Theory halfway point at which either the market booms higher or stalls & stutters before declining substantially, relative to the most recent rise.”

So far, the data has fallen in alignment with our claim of topping out action, as seen in the chart below.

Industrial Production Index In Decline

As of November 2014, the Industrial Production Index* has been in a declining trend.

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The beginning of the rising trend was established in June 2009.  When looked at from the percentage change over the previous year, there has been been only six out of 17 times when the Industrial Production Index had a negative declining trend AND a recession was not called by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

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