On February 5 , 2018, when Ethereum was trading at $699, we said the following of the cryptocurrency:
“In addition to the conservative downside target, we have indicated the level Ethereum would be at if it lost –93% (red line) as Bitcoin did in the period from June 2011 to November 2011 (yeah, it took only five months). Such a decline in Ethereum would bring the price to $96.95. We don’t expect this but must be realistic about the prospects regardless of our own personal expectations.
“Finally, we have included our own worst case scenario (green line) based on one half the difference between Gould’s extreme downside target at $461 and the –93% experienced by Bitcoin in 2011. This would bring the price of Ethereum to $279.31. Although this seems like a dire call for Ethereum, in reality it is not unusual to see an –80% decline in price from such extreme parabolic moves.”
As we write, Ethereum has declined to $266, just slightly below our worst case scenario target of $279.31. Below we have included our technical assessment of ETH at the current price.
ETH Targets
The lone remaining downside targets are $188.13 and $96.95. The $96.95 level was explained in the February 5, 2018 posting while the $188.13 target was explained in the April 2, 2018 posting.
This is where diehard crypto whales, “believers”, and speculators willing to accepts the downside risk of $188 and $96 consider buying in three stages, 50% of speculative funds at the current level, 25% at the $188 level and 25% at $96 and lower.