On September 13, 2018, when Tilray (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we offered downside targets for $118 and $236 price points. Unsurprisingly, TLRY closed at a price of $214 on September 19, 2018. At the time we said:
“The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case.”
The conservative downside target at $118 was $66.67 and at $236 was $102.92.
On September 25, 2018, when TLRY was trading at $114.00, after the stock traded as low as $99.50, we gave upside targets of $156.78, $176.26, and $195.16. Our closing commentary was as follows:
“Upside retests determine if the price of the stock will continue on the move beyond $214.06. This is where speculators make their money, on the prospects of an +86% increase.”
TLRY made it as high as $165.64 on a closing basis. The failure to achieve $176.26 target suggested that the downside targets from the closing price of $214.06 would be the extreme downside target of $78.67, as noted in the September 13, 2018 posting.
Currently, TLRY trades below $75. Although the extreme downside targets have been acheived, there are indications that TLRY will retest the pivot level at $34.
Downside Targets
The downside risk from the current price, is as follows:
Simply by declining to $60.72, speculators should build in plans for TLRY to go to the $34.00 price point.
