On November 25, 2018, we offered up the following downside target for Texas Pacific Land (TPL):
“The minimum downside target is in a range of $397.12 to $401.00. Going back to the period of 2007 to 2009, if TPL were to decline in a similar magnitude, the downside target from the $871.99 peak would be $244.16.”
From the peak of $871.99, TPL has declined to the intraday low of $409.00, which is exactly at our ascending $397.12 downside target.
The rebound has been exceptional but requires one last step in the process of confirming that the trend is actually up. In order for the trend to be CONFIRMED as up, the price of TPL needs to retest the $409 level and hold. Without holding at the $409 level, TPL would be expected to test the ascending $290.66 target, at minimum.
A review of the November 25, 2018 posting shows the 2003 to 2016 period when a retest of a a prior low was achieved.
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