The price of palladium has increased significantly since 2016.
Naturally, parabolic peaks mean that the price is nearing a top. The downside prospects are the only clear consideration at this point in time. Below are the downside targets for the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) that we have generated based on the most recent peak.
The downside targets are:
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$158.23 (conservative target)
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$118.07 (mid-range target)
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$77.91 (extreme target)
At minimum, we should see the price decline to $158.23 or the price fails to advance materially beyond the $232.29 level over an extended period of time.
How confident are we on the conservative downside target of $158.23? Based on prior work on this topic, we assume that PALL can increase to as high as $355.00 (without a decline of -20% or more) and still attain the $158.23 level as a natural reaction to the preceding parabolic increase. Rising above $355.00 without a decline of -20% or more would mean a downside target of $198.65 or higher.