With today’s announcement from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey we have updated our June 11, 2020 posting and contrasted it with the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2007 to 2020.
The recent reversal in the survey is reflecting what we saw in the low of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which occurred on March 23, 2020. This implies that the stock market (subject to zero revisions) leads the sentiment survey by more than 60 days. Whether this reversal is the low will be determined in due time.