HeidelbergCement India 10-Year Targets

Below are the price targets for HeidelbergCement India Limited over the next 10 years.

Our price targets for HeidelbergCement India Limited for the remainder of 2020 are:

  • 264.88 (overvalued)
  • 184.80 (fair value)
  • 104.72 (undervalued)
  • 67.76 (extreme undervalue)

The valuation targets for HeidelbergCement India Limited are based on a dividend growth rate of 15% which is derived from slightly less than one half the average dividend growth from 2017 to 2020 and applied to Edson Gould’s Altimeter.  A graphical representation of the overvalued, fair value, and undervalued levels are below.

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The above Altimeter translates into the following undervalued and overvalued ranges since 2000:

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10-Year Targets

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Observations

The dividend growth rate has averaged 30.95% since 2017.  However this is unsustainable in our view and is likely to decrease over time. Using a highly conservative dividend growth rate of 15% in the data above assumes that the growth rate will decline over time.

Individuals willing to assume extreme levels of risk, and therefore a minimum of loss of -50%, using the average increase of dividends from 2017 suggests that HeidelbergCement India Limited is undervalued, as demonstrated in the chart below. 

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it would be unwise to make the assumption that an average dividend increase of 30% can continue. Use the data and charts as a guideline in case of material changes occur.

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