Recently, we’ve seen some success applying the Coppock curve or indicator to individual companies. Could we scale this to an emerging market such as Nifty 50, a benchmark Indian stock market index? Running the data through this model reveals some exciting findings, so let’s dive into it.
The assumption we are working with is purchasing the Nifty 50 (^NSEI) when the Coppock issues a buy signal. The target holding periods are 1-3 years. Below are summary table showing important statistics such as success rate, largest loss or risk, average gain, and annualized return.
| Holding Period | Success Rate | Largest Loss | Average Gain | Median Gain | Annualized Gain | Sample Size |
| 1 Year | 83% | -2% | 34.1% | 34.9% | 34.1% | 6 |
| 2 Years | 100% | N/A | 52.5% | 46.7% | 21.1% | 6 |
| 3 Years | 100% | N/A | 73.6% | 55.7% | 16.0% | 6 |
The Nifty 50 was created in 1995 which mean buy signal occurs once in every 4 years. The latest buy signal came as recent as this past August when the index was at 11,387. Since then, the market has already risen to 12,780 or 12%.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.