In our last posting on January 16, 2020, we said the following:
“Worth noting is the fact that in periods when the year-over-year (YoY) data on the stock market went negative, as last shown in Q1 2019, the following recovery exceeded 20%, at minimum. Currently, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we’ve seen an increase of approximately +12% from the Q1 2019 y-o-y low.”
At this time, the Wilshire 5000 sits at a +17% increase above the same quarter last year (October 2019). Meanwhile, the GDP data says there is a long way to go before achieving the descending trendline of 2.11% (YoY) from 1975.
Exceeding the 2.11% level in GDP will likely warrant the NBER declaring the recession as ended. However, we will wait to see as the pandemic seems to be resisting even the best of intentions.
