In a March 21, 2024 piece presented by Hanif Bayat, it was pointed out that Canada has lagged the U.S. in GDP per Capita with only a few periods of when Canada exceeded or matched the U.S.
Among the points distinguishing the two countries, it was said:
“1. Robust Capitalism in U.S.: Fuels bold risk-taking and innovation, generating more wealth, though it has some struggles with fair wealth distribution.
“2. Conservative Approach in Canada: Leans towards stable sectors like natural resources and banking over tech, reflecting a risk-averse culture.”
One thing that must be understood about Canada is that it is a commodity economy.
The GDP exceptions mentioned by Hanif Bayat in 1976 & 2011/2012 reflect the peak in commodity prices for Canada.
Bayat also talked of the lack of experience of ministers:
“In Canada ministers are elected officials, sometimes with very limited experience in their ministry, while in the U.S. they can be leading experts.”
These same ministers will be claimed to be geniuses when there is a full fledge commodity boom, as was the case back in 2011.
“Canada is also the toast of international think tanks and world leaders. They praise our sound financial system, which seemingly avoided the traps that engulfed other nations’ banks. Conservative legislators in America and Britain sing the virtues of our relatively sound government finances.”
-“Kirby, Jason, and Erica Alini. The Canada Bubble.” Maclean’s, March 21, 2011, page 35.
In typical fashion, at the peaks, praise is heaped on the government. Meanwhile, the investment community stumble over themselves to get in on the action.
“HSBC, the U.K.-based banking giant, launched an exchange-traded fund devoted to Canadian stocks that will trade on the London Stock Exchange. “We think that Canada, with the relatively uncommon combination of being rich in natural resources coupled with having a stable political system, has attractive features for growth investors,” Mark Rodino, HSBC head of ETF sales in Europe, told the U.K.’s Money Observer magazine.”
- “Kirby, Jason, and Erica Alini. The Canada Bubble.” Maclean’s, March 21, 2011, page 35.
As usual, the flood of investment products to capitalize on the boom in Canada results in exceptional losses for the early entrants. A similar HSBC product that was introduced at the same time in 2011 has performed abysmally in the last 13 years, unless you considered a purchase at the lows of course.
The current widespread negativity on Canada (by Canadians) is a warning sign to anyone who thinks the current condition is permanent.
"The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change."
- Charles H. Dow, Wall Street Journal. June 8, 1901
As we’ve previously said, based on the work of Edward Dewey, the secular trend in rates is up.
Worth noting is the fact that the cycle above is based on wholesale prices. We will see cyclical collapses within a generally rising trend in commodities, rates, and inflation. As Canada is an economy rooted in commodities, we believe the current negativity on the country’s prospects are not based in a full acceptance or understanding of its strengths.
This is our warning that nothing changes sentiment like a change in prices.
See also:
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March 21, 2024 Hanif Bayat on Canada vs. U.S
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March 18, 2024 Bloomberg Commodity Index Upside Resistance Targets
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March 18, 2024 Bloomberg Commodity Index Price Momentum Indicator
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