Category Archives: 1903

Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936

Posted on October 30, 2018 by | Leave a comment

In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:

“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression.  The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.

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Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis.  Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased.   Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading →

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Posted in 1900, 1903, 1907, 1910, 1913, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, Bernanke, real estate, Real Estate Analyst, Wenzlick

Dow Theory: 1903-1907

Posted on December 5, 2011 by | Leave a comment
Bull market indication (A):According to Edwards & Magee's book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the bull market began at point A. From the point of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 100% and DJT gained 37%. The NLO team believes that at point (C) on 12/4/1903, the DJI confirmed the 11/30/1903 DJT signal that a bull market was in progress by exceeding the late Oct 1903 peaks. From the point of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 126% and DJT gained 47%.
Bear market indication (B): On 4/24/1906 the DJI confirmed the 4/19/1906 DJT bearish move. The signal came when the DJT dropped below the Sept 1905 low and the DJI dropped below the December 1905/March 1906 lows. From the point of the bear signal to the respective market bottoms, the DJI lost -42% and the DJT lost -35%. The NLO team is in agreement with the Edwards and Magee as to when the bear market began.
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Posted in 1903, 1907, Charles H. Dow, Dow Theory, Edwards and Magee

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Dow Theory: 1900-1903

Posted on December 2, 2011 by | Leave a comment
The following is the beginning of a series that examines prior bull and bear market indications according to Dow Theory since 1900.  We will include opinions and insights from the leading Dow Theory proponents and commentators from the respective periods, whenever possible.
Industrials (DJI), Transports (DJT)

Text in chart:

Bull market indication (A): On 10/22/1900, the DJI confirmed the 10/16/1900 DJT signal that a bull market was in progress.  From the point of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 29% and the DJT gained 60%.
Bear market indcation (B): A bear market indication was registered on April 13, 1903 when the DJT confirmed the 11/11/1902 DJI bearish move.  The critical point that set off the bearish signal was the joint delcine below the 12/12/1901 and 12/24/1901 closing prices for the DJT and DJI, respectively.  The challenge with this bear signal is the fact that the DJI was in a declining trend since June 17, 1901 while the DJT continued to register new highs at the same time not falling below the "Nipper Panic" lows of May 9, 1901.  From the point of the bear signal to the respective market bottoms, the DJI lost -30% and the DJT lost -16%.

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Posted in 1900, 1903, Charles H. Dow, Dow Theory, Edwards and Magee

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