Category Archives: 1907

Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936

In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:

“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression.  The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.

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Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis.  Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased.   Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading

Dow Theory: 1907-1910

Bull market indication (A): According to Edwards and Magee, the bull market began on April 24, 1908. The New Low Observer believes that on January 9, 1908 (C), the DJI & DJT confirmed that we're in a bull market by going above the December 6, 1907 intermediate peaks. From the point (C) of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 55% and DJT gained 44%.
Bear market indication (B): Edwards and Magee indicated that on May 3, 1910, the bear market signal was initiated.  However, we believe that on January 12, 1910 (D) the DJI confirmed the  DJT bearish move of falling below the September 9, 1909 low. From the point of the bear signal (D) to the respective market bottoms, the DJI lost -23% and the DJT lost -16%.

Dow Theory: 1903-1907

Bull market indication (A):According to Edwards & Magee's book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the bull market began at point A. From the point of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 100% and DJT gained 37%. The NLO team believes that at point (C) on 12/4/1903, the DJI confirmed the 11/30/1903 DJT signal that a bull market was in progress by exceeding the late Oct 1903 peaks. From the point of the bull signal to the respective market tops, the DJI gained 126% and DJT gained 47%.
Bear market indication (B): On 4/24/1906 the DJI confirmed the 4/19/1906 DJT bearish move. The signal came when the DJT dropped below the Sept 1905 low and the DJI dropped below the December 1905/March 1906 lows. From the point of the bear signal to the respective market bottoms, the DJI lost -42% and the DJT lost -35%. The NLO team is in agreement with the Edwards and Magee as to when the bear market began.
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