Category Archives: 1918

U.S. Realty from 1918 to 1945

Below is the updated price history of U.S. Realty & Improvement (a REIT) from 1918 to 1945.

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A prior price chart published May 20, 2017, did not include the stock split of 1925 and therefore was no accurately representing the actual share price.

Alaska Juneau Gold Mining 1918-1968

Below is the price change of Alaska Juneau Gold Mining (AJ) from 1918 to 1941.

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Below is the price change for Alaska Juneau Gold Mining (AJ) from 1918 to 1968. Continue reading

Homestake Mining from 1918 to 1968

Below is the price chart of Homestake Mining (HM) from 1918 to 1968. Continue reading

Union Pacific from 1918 to 1968

Below is the price chart of Union Pacific (UNP) from 1918 to 1968.

Note: We will be updating Alaska Juneau Gold Mining (AJ), Homestake Mining (HM), and Dome Mines (DM) from 1918 to 1968.

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Alaska Juneau Gold Mining Co. from 1918-1955

Below is the price chart of Alaska Juneau Gold Mining Company from 1918 to 1955. Continue reading

The Dow and Spanish Flu of 1918-1920

Conventional wisdom suggests that a flu pandemic like COVID-19 would have resulted in a further decline in financial markets rather than a reversal of a long established declining trend.  That was not the case for the period from 1918 to 1920.

In the last worst case of a flu pandemic, known as the Spanish Flu from 1918 to 1920, we compare the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA).

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In the period when it was on the ascent (late 1917), the Spanish Flu had seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average come off of a decline of -40.09%.  From the December 19, 1917 low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased approximately +81.37% by November 3, 1919.

The peak in the Spanish Flu occurred approximately November 1919.  This was in the midst of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s run from the low in December 1917 to the 1919 peak.  After the 1919 peak in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the market declined -46.57% to the August 25, 1921 low.  The low in 1921 was the beginning of the monumental runs in the stock market with a market peak in 1929.

How many declines of -3% did the Dow Jones Industrial Average experience in the period from December 16, 1915 to December 16, 1921?

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What conclusions can be drawn from the above data?  In the period from 1918 to 1920, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced 6 declines greater than -3% on the way to the peak in November 1919.  After the peak of November 1919, there were a total of 10 declines greater than -3% on the way to the August 1921 low.

Below we have broken the declines into a quarterly basis in the period from December 1915 to December 1921.

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With half of the declines of greater than -3% occurring in the fourth quarter of the year, we should expect that there is going to be more large declines to come.

The Dow and Bear Market Duration