Category Archives: 1931

A Strategy For the Coppock Curve

On, August 1, 2020, we said the following:

“Last month, the Coppock Curve dipped into negative territory flagging us to closely monitor this indicator for a buy signal. In addition to monitoring the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we created a model to back test this strategy against individual stocks. So far, we are very satisfied with the outcome.”

Based on our prior work, we have developed a strategy to compliment the indications made by the Coppock Curve when applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Continue reading

Chart of the Day

The Barron’s Averages (Industrials and Railroads) from 1906 to 1932.

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The amazing rise from the 1907 low to the 1929 peak was followed by the staggering decline of 1931 and 1932.

Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936

In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:

“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression.  The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.

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Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis.  Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased.   Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading