Category Archives: 2010 review

Applied Material Analysis on the Mark

On March 23rd of this year we went into detail with our individual analysis of Applied Material (AMAT) in an article titled “Research Request: Applied Material (AMAT).” At the time, Applied Material (AMAT) was trading at $13.24. In a section of the article titled “So What Would We Do?” we outlined our investment strategy on Applied Material.
Although we didn’t think that Applied Material (AMAT) was a “buy” at the time, we did give steps on how to go about buying the stock. The last paragraph of the article said the following:
“For anyone who believes that this is an opportunity that can't be missed, I recommend allocating 15% of your portfolio into this name. On top of that, do a two part purchase. First buy 7.5% now and if the shares fall another 20% buy the remaining 7.5% later. This way, the cost basis of the stock would require only a 10% rise to break even. Again, it is not likely that we'll buy AMAT since the alternatives provide exceptional opportunity with less downside risk.”
Based on the two-part purchase strategy that we mentioned, the average purchase price would have been $11.92. The gain for the stock would be 17.45% so far. Had only one purchase been made based on a decline of 20% from the $13.24 level, the total gain would be 32.20%.

We hope that our work on this topic has proven to be profitable for those who regularly read our site.  For those who have taken advantage of this investment opportunity, please re-read our March 22nd and March 23rd postings for indicated upside resistance levels and potential exit points.

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Wrong Time to Recommend Stocks Proves to be Correct

In an article that we wrote in January of this year, titled “Wrong Time For Recommendations,” we commented that the stocks suggested by TheStreet.com for potential investments were reckless at best. The companies that were on the list of TheStreet.com’s “Five Small Cap Stocks to Own Now" and their performance are found below.

Company Symbol 21-Jan-10 23-Dec-10
Change
InterOil IOC $79.05 $72.95
-7.72%
Sharps Compliance SMED $9.48 $4.47
-52.85%
China Green Agriculture CGA $14.9
$9.44
-36.64%
Sourcefire FIRE $22.84 $24.85
8.80%
Hi-Tech Pharmacal HITK $23.94 $25.03
4.55%
Average Return
-16.77%
With less than a month to go before a full year has passed since our original article was published, there does exist the possibility these companies can still provide close to the market return (due to their highly volatile nature.) However, we still believe that any widely followed website like TheStreet.com should not recommend stocks that have risen a minimum of 300% as potential purchase candidates.  We felt, and still feel, that “it is irresponsible to tell investors that they should buy something that outperformed the market by 15 times.”
As the New Year approaches, be wary of stock recommendations of companies that have significantly outperformed the market in the previous year. Such recommendations will result in below market returns.
Please revisit New Low Observer for edits and revisions to this post. Email us.