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Market Return After Exceptional Years
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Dow Theory: The Formation of a Line
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Golden Cross – How Golden Is It?
Debunked – Death Cross
Work Smart, Not Hard
Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
It's All About the Dividends
Dow Theory: Buying in Scales
How to Avoid Losses
When Dividends are Canceled
Cyclical and Secular Markets
Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
Ex-Dividend Dates -
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Historical Data
1290-1950: Price Index
1670-2012: Inflation Rate
1790-1947: Wholesale Price Cycle
1795-1973: Real Estate Cycle
1800-1965: U.S. Yields
1834-1928: U.S. Stock Index
1835-2019: Booms and Busts
1846-1895: Gold/Silver Value
1853-2019: Recession/Depression Index
1860-1907: Most Active Stock Average
1870-2033: Real Estate Cycles
1871-2020: Market Dividend Yield
1875-1940: St. Louis Rents
1876-1934: Credit-New Dwellings
1896-1925: Inflation-Stocks
1897-2019: Sentiment Index
1900-1903: Dow Theory
1900-1923: Cigars and Cigarettes
1900-2019: Silver/Dow Ratio
1901-2019: YoY DJIA
1903-1907: Dow Theory
1906-1932: Barron's Averages
1907-1910: Dow Theory
1910-1913: Dow Theory
1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
2008: Transaction History
2010-2021: Bitcoin Cycles -
Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: Analyst Estimate
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: March 5, 2024
Below are the stocks that we’ll be tracking from the Nasdaq 100 in the next year (2025).
Analyst Estimate: February PMI Stocks
Below are the price projections for the Price Momentum Indicator stocks based on analyst LOW earnings estimates in the coming year. These stocks can be found on our February 2, 2024 U.S. Dividend Watch List.
Analyst Estimates: Blindfold Better?
We continue to break down our watchlists by the analysts earnings estimates, as recently seen here:
Our thesis is premised on the work of many. Our latest example is shown in the piece below from David Dreman dated December 29, 1997.
Our 2017 piece confirms much of the claims by Dreman.
See Also:
Posted in Analyst Estimate, David Dreman
Analyst Estimate: TSX 60
Below are the price projections for the TSX 60 stocks based on analyst LOW earnings estimates in the coming year. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months.
Analyst Estimates: Nasdaq 100
Below are the price projections for Nasdaq 100 stocks based on analyst AVERAGE earnings estimates. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months.
Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List
Performance Review
On October 21, 2016, we posted analyst estimates for the expected gains for our watch list stocks dated October 14, 2016. Below is the performance review of the stocks that were part of that assessment.
At the time, we grouped the stocks into three separate categories (“high risk, high return,” “average risk, average return,” and “high expectation, low return”) as seen in the chart below:
As separate categories, the returns were as follows:
We have to be mindful of the fact that the high, average, and low returns are based on long term expectations for similar stocks. When contrasted against the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained +27.91% over the same time, the gains of each category are hardly “high” or “average.”
Canadian Dividend Watch List: October 2017
Below is the list of Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases that are at compelling prices or values. We include analyst estimates for the coming year.
Insurance Watch List: October 2017
Performance Review
The following is the performance of the Insurance Watch List stocks that we published in October 2016.
symbol | name | 2016 | 2017 | % chg |
THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 78.97 | 97.68 | 23.69% |
HALL | Hallmark Financial Services Inc. | 10.25 | 11.59 | 13.07% |
CNO | CNO Financial Group, Inc. | 15.67 | 24.04 | 53.41% |
ORI | Old Republic International Corp. | 18.32 | 19.6 | 6.99% |
The average return for the four stocks was +24.29% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +20.27%. The analysts called the performance of the stocks fairly well as indicated in the chart below.
Of the four stocks, only Hallmark Financial Services (HALL) was not able to exceed expectations (assuming the low estimate and the price of the stock maintained the same p/e ratio).
In our “Sell the Principal” section we outlined the stocks that we thought investors should consider selling the principal as the price of the stocks had exceeded all reasonable one year gains. Below is the performance of the list of stocks in the order as presented at the time.
name | 10/16.2016 | 10/6/2017 | % change |
Syncora Holdings Ltd. | 1.35 | 2.06 | 52.59% |
Genworth Financial, Inc. | 5.05 | 3.63 | -28.12% |
Crawford & Company | 11.68 | 11.89 | 1.80% |
Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 23.15 | 26.08 | 12.66% |
Lincoln National Corporation | 48.9 | 75 | 53.37% |
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. | 91.89 | 92.98 | 1.19% |
Principal Financial Group Inc. | 52.33 | 66.65 | 27.36% |
Kingsway Financial Services Inc. | 5.65 | 5.95 | 5.31% |
National Interstate Corporation | 32.42 | 32 | -1.30% |
Stewart Information Services Corporation | 46.36 | 38.01 | -18.01% |
Unum Group | 36.37 | 52.54 | 44.46% |
The entire list gained an average of +13.76% as compared to the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index ETF (IAK) gain of +20.27%. Only four stocks exceeded the performance of IAK (UNM, LNC, PFG, and SYCRF). Meanwhile, the remaining list of stocks performed well below the +20.27%. More than half the list showed below average or negative returns. This month’s “Sell the Principal” list has refined how the data is interpreted with the stated goal of highlighting those stocks expected to register negative returns after a review in October 2018.
Review: DJIA Analyst Review
In our posting of October 22, 2016, we highlighted the Analyst Estimates for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We took the analyst low estimated earnings and with a price to earnings ratio of 15 projected one year out. Below are the estimated returns and the actual returns as of September 29, 2017.
In our assessment of October 22, 2016, we had proposed the following outcomes to watch for:
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“We believe that the average category provides the best return overall with the high risk group offering exceptional gains for aggressive investors who have a longer time horizon (3-7 years).”
In the category indicated as “high risk” the estimate by analysts suggested that the group would decline by more than –24.02%. However, instead of falling, the high risk group has gained as much as +21.32%. The “average return” group nearly doubled the expected return as determined by analysts. Finally, the group indicated as “high expectations” gained half as much as the analysts had indicated based on the projected earnings with a price multiple of 15 times.
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Our “NLO dogs” of the Dow would “…produce surprising numbers as compared to the way the conventional ‘dogs’ would perform .”
As outlined in the graph above, the projected return of the “NLO dogs” increased by +17.29% instead of declining –13.30%. However, that exceptional reversal of fortune was not enough to meet our goal of the “NLO dogs” beating the traditional “Dogs of the Dow” investment strategy.
Thoughts
While there are three weeks remaining for the final 1-year numbers to come in, we’ve had some mixed results with our forecasts on expected returns. Overall, the selection of companies in the most widely followed index should have similar outcome as outlined in 2016.
Those stocks that are expected to perform the worst will exceed the prescribed returns while those expected to outperform will generally underperform analyst expectations. We hope to follow up on the overall performance of the “high risk” group to see if the 3-7 year performance manages to hold up to our expectations.
Regarding the “Dogs” investment strategy, while it is nice for the stocks that we selected to exceed the performance of the analysts, the original theory seems to remain consistent, at least in the period from 2016 to 2017.
Posted in Analyst Estimate, dog of NLO, dog of the dow
Insurance Watch List: September 2017
Below is the insurance watch list for the month of September 2017. In additions, we have included the analyst one year estimated returns and a review of watch list stock.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: August 2017
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the stocks on our watch list from January 25, 2017.
So far, the analysts haven’t fared well in their estimates. Stocks on the left side of the spectrum were expected to decline while those on the right were expected to do very well. Click on the chart to see what the analyst thought in January 2017. In the same period of time, the Nasdaq 100 has gained +17.26%.
Canadian Dividend Watch List: August 2017
Performance Review
In the chart below, highlighted in blue, are the analyst’s 2016 estimated percentage changes for what the respective stock was expected to do. In red, we see what the actual outcome was for the stock in the past year.
Overall, we believe that the analysts covering the stocks on our watch list from last year did relatively well. The three stocks expected to underperform were on target. Only two of the ten stocks expected to increase failed to register on the positive side of the column.
Canadian Dividend Watch List: July 2017
Performance Review
The Canadian Dividend Watch List from July 2016 gained an equal weighted average of +6.56%. This is contrasted by the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +4.65% in the same period of time. The top performing stock was Cogeco Inc. (CGO.TO) with a gain of +50.94%. The worst performing stock was Cominar REIT (CUF-UN.TO) with a decline of –23.17%.