Performance Review
On February 18, 2015, we generated the following list of stocks for consideration with their respective performance one year later:
| Symbol |
Name |
2015 |
2016 |
% chg |
| BEI-UN.TO |
Boardwalk REIT |
60.69 |
42.00 |
-30.80% |
| IGM.TO |
IGM Financial Inc. |
44.68 |
33.61 |
-24.78% |
| ACO-X.TO |
ATCO LTD., CL.I, NV |
46.76 |
37.90 |
-18.95% |
| CJR-B.TO |
Corus Entertainment Inc. |
21.73 |
9.32 |
-57.11% |
| CM.TO |
CIBC |
95.39 |
89.01 |
-6.69% |
| REF-UN.TO |
Canadian REIT |
47.05 |
39.90 |
-15.20% |
| RY.TO |
Royal Bank of Canada |
77.70 |
69.41 |
-10.67% |
| HCG.TO |
Home Capital Group Inc. |
43.30 |
29.86 |
-31.04% |
There was little surprise in the performance of the stocks on the watch list. As a group (equally weighted) the average change was –24.40% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange decline of –17.49%.
The analysts were off target for their 1-year projections. Only Canadian REIT (REF-UN.TO) and Boardwalk REIT (BEI-UN.TO) came close (somewhat) to the analyst targets.
A stock of particular interest to us was Home Capital Group (HCG.TO). At the time we said the following of HCG.TO:
“Applying Speed Resistance Lines to HCG.TO, we see that the stock has already declined to the conservative downside target of $37.92. Because it appears that we are in the early stages of the economic decline in Canada, HCG.TO might be worth watching to see if the stock can decline to the $28.21 level. The extreme downside target is $18.51 which confirms the Altimeter low of $20.80. HCG.TO should be considered in three stages starting below the ascending $37.92, $28.21 and $18.51 levels.”
Not surprisingly, HCG.TO declined as low as 23.16 on January 15, 2016. This has set the stage for our latest risk assessment (as noted below).
