Category Archives: BA

Boeing: Upside Targets Before and After

A question has come in about the use of upside resistance targets.  Why bother looking at the upside targets?  The case of Boeing (BA) should prove instructive.

On April 15, 2020, we posted upside speed resistance lines for Boeing (BA).  At the time, the upside resistance targets were:

  • $267.82
  • $326.57
  • $383.59

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Upside resistance targets are reflected in both time and price on a relative basis where a stock, after falling from a major high, will likely experience resistance on the move higher.

Since our April 15, 2020 posting on Boeing, a meaningful reflection of what investors should look for when anticipating the increase in the stock price is highlighted below.

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As Boeing has increased from the low of $95.01, the stock price achieved the first upside resistance target at $267.82.  Circled in red is the anticipated resistance in the stock price.  What this usually means is that the stock price would decline or trade in a range.

For those determined to buy Boeing, regardless of fundamentals, upside resistance targets are a great places to anticipate possible turning points.  The flip side to this story is that we generally expect a re-test of the prior low or some semblance of a decline near that level.

Worth noting, when Boeing cracks the upside resistance target of $267.82 then $326.57 becomes the next resistance target and $267.82 becomes the next support level.  Prices above the first upside resistance target is generally the best level to buy a stock if it is backed by the fundamental prospects.

The story for Boeing is still unfolding. We’ll update the April 15, 2020 posting at situation continues to evolve.

Boeing Upside Resistance Targets

Below are the upside resistance targets for Boeing (BA):

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The upside resistance targets seem daunting.  We’ve seen bigger and better companies bailed out and not able to recover from these levels.  There is always a first.

Boeing Downside Targets

In our posting of March 22, 2020, we said the following:

“Since the low in the stock market on March 9, 2009, Boeing (BA), (as of March 20, 2020) has gained approximately +206%. In the same period of time (March 9, 2009-March 20, 2020), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased +192%.”

If we were to match the performance of Boeing to that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the 2009 low to the April 3, 2020 close, Boeing would be trading at approximately $65.04.  However, we already know that Boeing has been booking future sales to current earnings.  This basically means that there were no earnings in the prior years.

The details of Boeing’s accounting is outlined in our March 23, 2020 posting titled “Boeing’s Accounting: Legal but Questionable.”

Numbers to Watch

As we continue to say, price reflects fundamental and fundamentals reflect price.  In the chart below, which includes the last remaining downside targets, we have highlighted the fact that in the prior recessionary period from 1999 to 2002, Boeing reached a low of $25.06.

In the recovering from the low in 2002/2003, Boeing achieved a high of $107.23 and then fell to a low of $29.51.  It is not necessary for Boeing to actually replicate the move of going back to the prior bear market low of 2002.  However, we should not be surprised if Boeing were to go to the prior low of $29.51. 

For the time being, we will attempt an unusual approach to using the Speed Resistance Lines.  Typically, our downside targets are based on the most recent all-time high.  In this case, that would mean basing the current downside targets on the $440.62 price.  However, the current decline has been so disastrous that we’re going to utilized the 2015 peak price of $158.31 as the basis of our downside targets.

Below is the updated downside targets for Boeing (BA) based on the peak price that was set on February 20, 2015.

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The downside targets based on the 2015 peak at $158.31 are:

  • $110.31 (conservative)
  • $83.54 (mid-range)
  • $52.77 (extreme)

Remember, the decline in Boeing started in early 2019.  Additionally, Boeing began trading in a range starting in early 2018.  For this reason, the idea of connecting the current decline with the coronavirus is generally a mistake.

That Boeing has managed to achieve the downside targets of a prior peak ($110.31) is astounding and speaks to the extreme low that it needs to achieve relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Summary

The current earnings were an illusion and should easily bring Boeing to $83.54, $65.04, $52.77, and possibly to $29.51.

Boeing: Manic Panic

As we register daily percentage increases beyond all historical norms for Boeing, we worry the message in the price is being misinterpreted.  So to help put this matter into the proper context, we have outlined the top 5 daily percentage increases in Boeing’s share price below.

Number 5: July 28, 1987

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Number 4: October 28, 2008

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Number 3: March 24, 2020

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Number 2: July 8, 1970

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Number 1: March 25, 2020

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Our Take

In each of the top 2, top 4, top 5 & top 6 single day percentage gains, Boeing was far from a reversal of the stock price to the upside.  The lone exception, that could be argued, was the 1970 increase of +23.71%, which took Boeing to a new low by 1974.

We have intentionally included the prior low before the crash in the stock price.  Also, we included the following peak price to put into perspective the amount of time and money that may have been lost before getting back to a “break-even” point (excluding dividends).

The fact that Boeing is having these significant increases in the price in a single day is a warning sign that investors must take heed of.  This isn’t a recovery, instead, it is manic panic that will bring lower lows.

See Also: The Most Dreaded Chart of Boeing

Boeing’s Accounting: Legal but Questionable

Since I’m on the hook for the pending bailout of Boeing, it is worth knowing why the company soared so much in the first place.

Below is a chart of Boeing versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the March 9, 2009 low to March 20, 2020.

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Look how majestically Boeing soars above the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the period from 2012 to 2019.  As usual, the rise of Boeing wasn’t due to some kind of fluke.  It was primarily an outgrowth of a accounting method that, while very legal, was questionable.

The accounting method is known as “program accounting” which allows the company to defer the costs of building planes and book the expect profits from those planes in the future,  in the current period.  It’s the usual time travelers dream except it is done with accounting.

Thankfully, there were well informed critic of this blatant fantasy world that Boeing was living in as noted in the excerpts below.

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“Rather than booking the huge costs of building the advanced 787 or other aircraft as it pays the bills, Boeing -- with the blessing of its auditors [Deloitte & Touche LLP] and regulators and in line with accounting rules -- defers those costs, spreading them out over the number of planes it expects to sell years into the future. That allows the company to include anticipated future profits in its current earnings (Ostrower, Jon. Boeing's Unique Accounting Helped Lift Profit. Wall Street Journal. 04 Oct 2016: B1.).”

“The problem, analysts and other critics say, is that Boeing's approach stretches its profit per plane into such a distant and uncertain future that it isn't clear if it will ever recover the nearly $30 billion it has sunk into producing the plane and validate years of projected profits (Ostrower, Jon. Boeing's Unique Accounting Helped Lift Profit. Wall Street Journal. 04 Oct 2016: B1.).”

“Boeing, which hasn't confirmed or denied the investigation, has defended its accounting -- which complies with generally accepted accounting principles -- and says its profit expectations are realistic (Ostrower, Jon. Boeing's Unique Accounting Helped Lift Profit. Wall Street Journal. 04 Oct 2016: B1.).”

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“For Boeing, the cost of producing the Dreamliner, which was delayed by 3 1/2 years because of design and manufacturing problems, is a thorny issue. The Dreamliners delivered so far continue to cost the company much more to make than what it charges for them, a fact obscured by its soaring financial results (Ostrower, Jon. Critical Mission for Boeing: Slashing Dreamliner Costs. Wall Street Journal.08 Jan 2014: B.1.).”

“If Boeing booked the difference between current sales and costs for each product it delivers, the way most companies do, its commercial-jet division's operating profit for the first nine months of 2013 would instead have been a $69 million loss, according to company figures (Ostrower, Jon. Critical Mission for Boeing: Slashing Dreamliner Costs. Wall Street Journal.08 Jan 2014: B.1.).”

Closing Thoughts

Sadly, many defenders of the bailout of Boeing will invoke claims that COVID-19 did the company in or that jobs will be lost.  Few of those same people will look at how this could have been avoid by Boeing management.

On Deck: NextEra Energy: NextProblem

The Most Dreaded Chart of Boeing

As we enter the bailout phase of Boeing, there is one chart that should alarm all investors.

Since the low in the stock market on March 9, 2009, Boeing (BA), (as of March 20, 2020) has gained approximately +206%.

In the same period of time (March 9, 2009-March 20, 2020), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased +192%.

Let that sink in for a minute.  We are about to bail out a company that as of March 20, 2020 has exceeded the gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the March 2009 low.

Now, Let’s look at the chart that should be causing dread for all investors.

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The comparison between Boeing and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, when drawn on a relative basis, shows the extent of the bubble in the price of Boeing stock.

Defenders of the Boeing bailout say that the total shutdown of the airline industry and the coronavirus are the reasons that Boeing is suffering more than usual.  However, when viewed on a relative basis against the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which Boeing is a part of, we can only conclude that Boeing is only reverting to the mean.

As noted above  (206% v. 192%), the mean has not been reached and as Charles H. Dow has said, the reaction will swing to the opposite direction before being resting at the mean.

see also: Dow Theory’s December 2018 Bear Market Indication

TBTF: Too Boeing To Fail

Advocates for the bailout of Boeing (BA) are citing the “black swan” event of COVID-19 as the reason the company has reached the tipping point of failure.  These same people are saying that, in spite of Boeing:

  1. distributing defective merchandise
  2. that resulted in loss of life
  3. then lied about knowingly distributing a defective product

The company is too big to fail because the cascade of job losses throughout the entire U.S. economy would be catastrophic.

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We’d argue that demise of Boeing began near the February 20, 2018 period.  We don’t know why it occurred at that time, However, the stock had run out of upside momentum and vacillated between the $356.66 price since that time.

The most recent decline is the culmination of the collective wisdom of the markets which decided after March 4, 2019 that the fate of the company had been determined.

As with the bank and auto bailouts of 2008, the belief is that there doesn’t exist the capacity of the largest and most broadly developed economy in the world to absorb the loss of such a big company.  Thanks to the bailout to come, we will continue to never know.

Boeing Co. 10-Year Targets

Below are the dividend yield ranges for Boeing Co. (BA) from overvalued to undervalued from 1977 to 1995:

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Below is the dividend yield range of overvalued to undervalued from 1995 to 2020:

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There is a good chance that BA will decline to the undervalued level, after having fallen below the fair value level with conviction.

Below are the target ranges for Boeing Company assuming a 3.50% dividend growth rate based on the precedent set from 1977 to 2018 and projected to 2030. Continue reading

Boeing Co. 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Boeing Company (BA) for the next 10 years. Continue reading