The following is a review of Buckle (BKE) using Edson Gould’s Altimeter.
Below is the performance of the buy and sell indications of Edson Gould’s Altimeter based on periods when the indicator first cross below 150 for buy indication, and above 247 for sell indications.
| Date |
Price |
Altimeter |
buy/sell |
% change |
$1 invested |
| 6/12/1997 |
6.57 |
148 |
buy |
69% |
$1.69 |
| 1/28/1998 |
11.13 |
250 |
sell |
-47% |
|
| 10/8/1998 |
5.95 |
134 |
buy |
85% |
$3.13 |
| 11/6/1998 |
11.01 |
248 |
sell |
-41% |
|
| 11/4/1999 |
6.51 |
146 |
buy |
69% |
$5.30 |
| 3/19/2002 |
11.01 |
248 |
sell |
120% |
|
| 11/19/2007 |
24.26 |
146 |
buy |
72% |
$9.13 |
| 9/18/2008 |
41.78 |
251 |
sell |
-43% |
|
| 10/23/2008 |
23.94 |
144 |
buy |
107% |
$18.90 |
| 3/9/2012 |
49.56 |
248 |
sell |
-39% |
|
| ????????? |
30 |
150 |
buy |
????????? |
|
The consistency of the indicator is amazing. Only the sell indication of March 19, 2002 resulted in an outcome that was contrary to the desired result. Even so, A person who only bought BKE based on the buy signal and sold based on the sell indication would have resulted in a gain of 1,890% from June 12, 1997 to the present. This is compared to the buy and hold total return with reinvestment of dividends (including special dividends) of 766.21%. Based on capital appreciation alone, the price of BKE rose 498% since June 12, 1997.
-
+1,890% (buy/sell Altimeter)
-
+766% (dividends reinvested)
-
+498% (based on price change only)
In the table above, the section in blue is the tentative estimate of when the next buy signal will be registered and the amount of decline necessary to get to the signal. It appears that based on the sell indication from March 9, 2012 to the price of $30, BKE would have to decline -39% using the Altimeter. Such a decline is well within the prior successful sell indications that resulted in losses.
We are very interested in this stock at the right price. We believe that BKE will be a buy at $30 and below. However, prior price movement based on Gould’s speed resistance lines indicated that the conservative downside target is $24.47 and the extreme downside target of $16.68.
Historically, based on prior Altimeters, a buy indication does not mean that the price decline has actually ended. Therefore, if the buy indication is triggered then be prepared by making your purchase of the stock in, at least, two stages. Once at the trigger price and again at any desirable price lower than the trigger level.
