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Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: BSE Sensex Index
Sensex Review #Sensex
On September 21, 2021, we said the following of the Sensex Index:
“The Sensex has reach a point of exhaustion based on the historical precedent established in 1994, 2000, 2004, 2006, & 2010.”
Since that time, the Sensex has managed to demonstrate exactly what was expected in the period of time from September 2021.
We’ll update this soon as there has been almost seismic changes since 2021.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index
#Sensex Velocity Indicator
On September 21, 2021, we said the following of the Sensex Index:
“The Sensex has reach a point of exhaustion based on the historical precedent established in 1994, 2000, 2004, 2006, & 2010. This doesn't mean the party is over, as the prior years prove. Just that there will be some temporary churn or downside risk from this level..” (found here)
Since that time, The Sensex Index has traded in a range to the current level of 52,793.62.
Below is an update to the Velocity Indicator for the Sensex Index.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator
Sensex Velocity Indicator
Below is a review of the Sensex Velocity Indicator. In this piece, we’ll examine prior comparable “peaks” to determine potential downside risk.
Review
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September 2, 2020: “If the BSE returns to the last moderate peak (34% in attached chart), then it would bring the index to 49,704.30.” link.
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September 2, 2021: “The current rise is running out of energy.” link.
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September 21, 2021: “The Sensex has reach a point of exhaustion based on the historical precedent established in 1994, 2000, 2004, 2006, & 2010. This doesn't mean the party is over, as the prior years prove. Just that there will be some temporary churn or downside risk from this level.” link.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator
2009-2021: Sensex Velocity Indicator
In the last comparable period of increase in the Sensex Index, we trace out the decline from the July 19, 2010 peak to the January 1, 2012 low to generate a potential downside target for the current period.
As we can seen in the July 19, 2010 – January 1, 2012 period, the Sensex Index had a range of 20,917.03 to 15,406.93 or a decline of –26.34% from the peak. A similar decline would bring the current level of the Index to 45,848.33.
Timing is an issue that most people are interested in. We have not been as successful with such an indication other than to refer to the last range in time for the same price action.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator
1982-2021: BSE Sensex Velocity Indicator
Below is the Velocity Indicator for the BSE Sensex Index.
For the dates that are listed on the Velocity Indicator, we have outlined the price levels on the BSE Sensex Index:
1988-2004
2003-2021
Observations
In general, the dates provided at the lows in the Velocity Indicator help to avoid the largest declines experienced in the index. While it is with luck that the market rises, our goal is to avoid, whenever possible, the largest declines.
Posted in BSE Sensex Index, Velocity Indicator