Category Archives: Canadian Dividend Watch List

Canadian Watchlist: Richelieu Hardware Price Momentum

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TSX 60 Watch List: November 1, 2022

In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has declined as much as –13.64% and currently sits at a 1-year decline of –6.56%. 

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Taking a wider view, we see that the Index has managed to... Continue reading

Canadian Watch List: January 2020

Below is the watch list of Canadian stocks and the top five stocks for each category: Continue reading

2019 Dogs of the TSX 60

Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the TSX 60 from December 31, 2018 to December 31, 2019.

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On average, as with the Dogs of the Dow, low yield stocks continues to dominate the high yield (Dogs of the TSX 60).  It isn’t supposed to be this way according to the popular literature on this topic.

Our commentary from the January 2019 Dogs of the TSX 60 watch list had the following to say:

“Unlike the Dogs of the Dow, The Dogs of the TSX 60 have the best performers in the ‘high yield’, ‘low p/b’, and ‘low p/e’. Our preference is for stocks within the low yield grouping.”

Our painful adherence to conservatism and safety has seen our pick of low yield stocks doing “alright” compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange.  We introduced the 1,2,3 and 2,3,4 as an alternative to the conventional top ten stocks, as we believe better performance within the low yield stocks would come from the top 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks.

While we have observed that low p/e, low p/b, and high yield Canadian stocks performed better in the past, only the low p/b stocks crushed it, especially the top 1,2,3 stock in that grouping with a dumbfounding gain of +79.37%.

Canadian Watch List: September 2019

Below is the Watch List for September 2019. Continue reading

Review: Canadian List Sept 2018

The table below outlines the performance of the top five of the Canadian Dividend Watch list for September 2018.

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The orange circles indicate where, among the top five, the performance was improved if the top 2nd, 3rd and 4th stocks were selected instead of buying the top five.

A very important observation is taking the performance of the top five low yield stocks and the top five high yield stocks.  According to the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy, selecting the top ten stocks with the highest yield will result in higher performance than the representative index.  In this case, the Toronto Stock Exchange is the index we compare the performance to.

In the case of the high yield stocks, they generated returns of –16.23% while the low yield stocks generated returns of +16.35%.  The chasm in performance between the two is wide, deep, and consistent on a historical basis. 

We are confident that if you are an investor seeking average returns then you will not find it in the group of the highest yielding stocks.  In addition, low yielding stocks are able, on a consistent basis, to provided competitive returns year in and year out, as confirmed in our work of the same stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1996.

Canadian Watch List: June 2019

Performance Review

Below we compare the performance of the top five stocks in the respective fundamental categories as published on May 20, 2018 covering the period from May 18, 2018 to June 18, 2019 (intraday).

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On May 18, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange closed at 16,162.30 while on an intraday basis, The TSX currently trades at 16,504.73.  The change in the Toronto Stock Exchange from May 2018 to June 2019 is +2.11%.

Overall, our categories exceeded the TSX by a wide margin which is a testament to the overall methodology that we apply to ranking the stocks.

At the time of our posting on May 20, 2018, we thought that the “low” category stocks would perform the best however, only the low yield stocks came close in the performance ranking.

The consistency of the low yield group to beat the high yield group should change minds when it come to “Dogs of the TSX” investment strategy which espouses buying the high yield stocks in order to beat the Toronto Stock Exchange.  Yes, the high yield stocks did beat the TSX, however, wouldn’t the extra boost of nearly 12x the index be preferred over the 4x gain?

June 2019 Canadian Watch List Continue reading

Canadian Watch List: January 2019

In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has declined and increased in line with the U.S. markets, as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

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From the December 24, 2018 lows, the Toronto Stock Exchange has the following upside resistance targets.

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If the trend is up then we should see a retest and support at the 13,780.20 lows.  If the trend is down then we should see a retest and failure of the 16,567.40 highs.  For now, the Toronto Stock Exchange is expected to achieved the 15,647.62 level. Continue reading

2019 Dogs of the TSX 60

Below is the Dogs of the TSX 60 for 2019 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

Canadian Watch List: November 2018

TSX 60 Performance Review

Below is the performance review of the Dogs of the TSX 60 stocks since December 13, 2017:

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The entire list of stocks in each category has done an about face in terms of performance.  In our previous posting on September 23, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) was the best performing category.  However, since September 2018, the “high p/b” category has ended up in the plus column while the TSX is now in the negative.

Another curious change is that the “high yield” group is exceeding the “low p/b” and “low p/e” categories but is still unable to exceed the performance of the “low yield” set of stock, as has been the case throughout the year since our December 13, 2017 list was created.

Below is a list of the various stocks within each category and their respective performance since December 13, 2017.

low p/e 12/13/2017 11/30/2108 % chg high p/e 12/13/2017 11/30/2018 % chg
ABX.TO $17.91 $17.03 -4.91% K.TO $5.11 $3.66 -28.38%
POW.TO $32.24 $26.41 -18.08% WPM.TO $27.31 $20.83 -23.73%
ARX.TO $14.77 $9.19 -37.78% DOL.TO $52.75 $34.66 -34.29%
BNS.TO $82.85 $72.22 -12.83% AEM.TO $54.34 $46.11 -15.15%
SLF.TO $52.32 $48.74 -6.84% FNV.TO $98.10 $90.74 -7.50%
CVE.TO $11.92 $9.62 -19.30% QSR.TO $79.31 $77.74 -1.98%
CM.TO $120.19 $110.68 -7.91% AGU.TO merged merged 0.00%
BMO.TO $100.88 $98.43 -2.43% POT.TO merged merged 0.00%
TECK-B.TO $30.68 $26.88 -12.39% BAM-A.TO $56.59 $58.07 2.62%
HSE.TO $16.04 $15.93 -0.69% CSU.TO $780.92 $933.65 19.56%
avg. -12.32% avg. -8.89%
low p/b 12/13/2017 11/30/2108 % chg high p/b 12/13/2017 11/30/2018 % chg
ELD.TO $1.61 $0.75 -53.42% BCE.TO $62.82 $57.09 -9.12%
G.TO $15.66 $12.37 -21.01% FNV.TO $98.10 $90.91 -7.33%
POW.TO $32.24 $26.41 -18.08% SAP.TO $44.83 $40.48 -9.70%
CPG.TO $8.80 $3.86 -56.14% GIL.TO $41.25 $43.73 6.01%
CCO.TO $13.40 $15.86 18.36% QSR.TO $79.31 $77.84 -1.85%
YRI.TO $3.28 $2.81 -14.33% ATD-B.TO $66.90 $69.47 3.84%
CVE.TO $11.92 $11.92 0.00% RCI-B.TO $65.16 $70.72 8.53%
FM.TO $16.55 $12.10 -26.89% CNR.TO $103.45 $114.42 10.60%
TECK-B.TO $30.68 $26.88 -12.39% CP.TO $230.75 $280.96 21.76%
HSE.TO $16.04 $15.93 -0.69% CSU.TO $780.92 $933.65 19.56%
avg. -18.46% avg. 4.23%
low yield 12/13/2017 11/30/2108 % chg high yield 12/13/2017 11/30/2018 % chg
ABX.TO $17.91 $17.03 -4.91% BCE.TO $62.82 $57.09 -9.12%
DOL.TO $52.75 $34.66 -34.29% IPL.TO $27.67 $21.28 -23.09%
G.TO $15.66 $12.35 -21.14% EMA.TO $47.89 $44.53 -7.02%
YRI.TO $3.28 $2.81 -14.33% TRP.TO $62.87 $54.00 -14.11%
ATD-B.TO $66.90 $69.47 3.84% POW.TO $32.24 $26.41 -18.08%
L.TO $68.37 $60.95 -10.85% ENB.TO $49.58 $43.36 -12.55%
FM.TO $16.55 $12.10 -26.89% CPG.TO $8.80 $3.86 -56.14%
TECK-B.TO $30.68 $26.88 -12.39% PPL.TO $45.00 $44.52 -1.07%
ECA.TO $15.11 $9.05 -40.11% T.TO $48.69 $47.57 -2.30%
CSU.TO $780.92 $933.65 19.56% CM.TO $120.19 $110.68 -7.91%
avg. -14.15% avg. -15.14%

Below is the November 2018 Watch List and the 10-Year Targets for Power Corporation of Canada. Continue reading

Canadian Watch List: September 2018

Below is the Watch List for September 2018.

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Canadian Watch List: July 2018

TSX 60 Performance Review

Below is the performance review of the TSX 60 stocks since December 13, 2017:

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The TSX 60 is the sixty largest cap stocks in the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) index.  It is from this group of stocks that the “Dogs of the TSX” are selected.  The Dogs of the TSX are the 10 highest yielding stocks that are expected to outperform the rest of the index.

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Canadian Watch List: May 2018

Performance Review

Below is the performance of our Canadian Watch List dated May 14, 2017:

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The average change of the entire watch list was –7.48% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of approximately +4.48% over the same period of time.  Worth noting are the stocks that the analysts got right in the assessment last year.  Those stocks are BCE Inc. (BCE.TO), Cineplex (CGX.TO), and Emera (EMA.TO).

Canadian Watch List: April 2018

Performance Review

Below is the total return performance of stock that appeared on our Canadian Watch List dated April 23, 2017 with prices adjusted for dividend.

symbol name 4/21/2017 4/26/2018 1yr TR
CGX.TO Cineplex Inc. 50.48 30.44 -39.70%
CPG.TO Crescent Point Energy Corp. 13.14 11.66 -11.26%
EMA.TO Emera Incorporated 45.35 40.62 -10.43%
PLZ-UN.TO Plaza Retail REIT 4.6 4.2 -8.70%
REI-UN.TO Riocan REIT 25.04 23.07 -7.87%
BCE.TO BCE Inc. 58.41 54.56 -6.59%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 13.2 12.43 -5.83%
KEY.TO Keyera Corp. 36.44 34.45 -5.46%
IMO.TO Imperial Oil Limited 39.84 38.44 -3.51%
ACD.TO Accord Financial Corp. 8.57 8.95 4.43%
FCR.TO First Capital Realty Inc. 19.25 20.11 4.47%
ET.TO Evertz Technologies Limited 15.85 17.59 10.98%
FFH.TO Fairfax Financial Holdings 604.56 699.61 15.72%

The average return of the entire watch list was –4.90%.  This is contrasted with the Toronto Stock Exchange change of +0.07% over the same period.  The breakdown of the top five stocks in the individual fundamental categories is as follows:

rank high p/e % chg high p/b % chg high yield % chg
1 CGX.TO -39.70% CGX.TO -39.70% CUF-UN.TO -5.83%
2 EMA.TO -10.43% ET.TO 10.98% PLZ-UN.TO -8.70%
3 KEY.TO -5.46% BCE.TO -6.59% REI-UN.TO -7.87%
4 ET.TO 10.98% KEY.TO -5.46% BCE.TO -6.59%
5 BCE.TO -6.59% FFH.TO 15.72% EMA.TO -10.43%
  avg % chg -10.24%   -5.01%   -7.88%
             
             
rank low p/e % chg low p/b % chg low yield % chg
1 CUF-UN.TO -5.83% CUF-UN.TO -5.83% IMO.TO -3.51%
2 REI-UN.TO -7.87% CPG.TO -11.26% FFH.TO 15.72%
3 ACD.TO 4.43% ACD.TO 4.43% CPG.TO -11.26%
4 FCR.TO 4.47% PLZ-UN.TO -8.70% CGX.TO -39.70%
5 PLZ-UN.TO -8.70% REI-UN.TO -7.87% ACD.TO 4.43%
  avg % chg -2.70%   -5.85%   -6.86%

 

The Canadian list continues to reflect stocks that perform better in the “low” categories as opposed to the stock in the “high” categories.  One point that stands out is that if CGX.TO were omitted from the “low yield” grouping because it appeared in two other “high” categories then the low yield stocks would have averaged +1.34% using four stocks or –0.02% if using the next stock in the ranking (Keyera Corp).

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Canadian Watch List: March 2018

Performance Review

Below we have provided the performance of the respective categories to show the difference between selecting the stocks that are in either the top 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranking as opposed to selecting those stocks that are 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranking.

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We find the results interesting as there is a material difference in performance.  the largest difference gained was in the high p/e stocks where the selection changed the performance from –17.81% to –3.14%.  Although not a gain, the improvement was substantial.  In fact, all categories gained except the high yield group where the gain was reduced from +11.88% down to +10.23%.

As a group, the entire watch list lost –1.20% on a total return basis as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange change of +1.32% in the same period of time.  The best performing stock was Jean Coutu Group (PJC-A.TO) which gained +23.96% and was our strong interest stock of February 27, 2017.  The worst performing stock was Cineplex Inc (CGX.TO) which fell –36.33%.