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Market Return After Exceptional Years
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Dow Theory: The Formation of a Line
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Golden Cross – How Golden Is It?
Debunked – Death Cross
Work Smart, Not Hard
Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
It's All About the Dividends
Dow Theory: Buying in Scales
How to Avoid Losses
When Dividends are Canceled
Cyclical and Secular Markets
Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
Ex-Dividend Dates -
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Historical Data
1290-1950: Price Index
1670-2012: Inflation Rate
1790-1947: Wholesale Price Cycle
1795-1973: Real Estate Cycle
1800-1965: U.S. Yields
1834-1928: U.S. Stock Index
1835-2019: Booms and Busts
1846-1895: Gold/Silver Value
1853-2019: Recession/Depression Index
1860-1907: Most Active Stock Average
1870-2033: Real Estate Cycles
1871-2020: Market Dividend Yield
1875-1940: St. Louis Rents
1876-1934: Credit-New Dwellings
1896-1925: Inflation-Stocks
1897-2019: Sentiment Index
1900-1903: Dow Theory
1900-1923: Cigars and Cigarettes
1900-2019: Silver/Dow Ratio
1901-2019: YoY DJIA
1903-1907: Dow Theory
1906-1932: Barron's Averages
1907-1910: Dow Theory
1910-1913: Dow Theory
1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
2008: Transaction History
2010-2021: Bitcoin Cycles -
Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: Canadian Dividend Watch List
Canadian Watchlist: Richelieu Hardware Price Momentum
Posted in Canada, Canadian Dividend Watch List, Price Momentum, RCH.TO
Tagged members
TSX 60 Watch List: November 1, 2022
In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has declined as much as –13.64% and currently sits at a 1-year decline of –6.56%.
Taking a wider view, we see that the Index has managed to... Continue reading
Canadian Watch List: January 2020
Below is the watch list of Canadian stocks and the top five stocks for each category: Continue reading
2019 Dogs of the TSX 60
Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the TSX 60 from December 31, 2018 to December 31, 2019.
On average, as with the Dogs of the Dow, low yield stocks continues to dominate the high yield (Dogs of the TSX 60). It isn’t supposed to be this way according to the popular literature on this topic.
Our commentary from the January 2019 Dogs of the TSX 60 watch list had the following to say:
“Unlike the Dogs of the Dow, The Dogs of the TSX 60 have the best performers in the ‘high yield’, ‘low p/b’, and ‘low p/e’. Our preference is for stocks within the low yield grouping.”
Our painful adherence to conservatism and safety has seen our pick of low yield stocks doing “alright” compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange. We introduced the 1,2,3 and 2,3,4 as an alternative to the conventional top ten stocks, as we believe better performance within the low yield stocks would come from the top 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks.
While we have observed that low p/e, low p/b, and high yield Canadian stocks performed better in the past, only the low p/b stocks crushed it, especially the top 1,2,3 stock in that grouping with a dumbfounding gain of +79.37%.
Canadian Watch List: September 2019
Below is the Watch List for September 2019. Continue reading
Review: Canadian List Sept 2018
The table below outlines the performance of the top five of the Canadian Dividend Watch list for September 2018.
The orange circles indicate where, among the top five, the performance was improved if the top 2nd, 3rd and 4th stocks were selected instead of buying the top five.
A very important observation is taking the performance of the top five low yield stocks and the top five high yield stocks. According to the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy, selecting the top ten stocks with the highest yield will result in higher performance than the representative index. In this case, the Toronto Stock Exchange is the index we compare the performance to.
In the case of the high yield stocks, they generated returns of –16.23% while the low yield stocks generated returns of +16.35%. The chasm in performance between the two is wide, deep, and consistent on a historical basis.
We are confident that if you are an investor seeking average returns then you will not find it in the group of the highest yielding stocks. In addition, low yielding stocks are able, on a consistent basis, to provided competitive returns year in and year out, as confirmed in our work of the same stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1996.
Canadian Watch List: June 2019
Performance Review
Below we compare the performance of the top five stocks in the respective fundamental categories as published on May 20, 2018 covering the period from May 18, 2018 to June 18, 2019 (intraday).
On May 18, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange closed at 16,162.30 while on an intraday basis, The TSX currently trades at 16,504.73. The change in the Toronto Stock Exchange from May 2018 to June 2019 is +2.11%.
Overall, our categories exceeded the TSX by a wide margin which is a testament to the overall methodology that we apply to ranking the stocks.
At the time of our posting on May 20, 2018, we thought that the “low” category stocks would perform the best however, only the low yield stocks came close in the performance ranking.
The consistency of the low yield group to beat the high yield group should change minds when it come to “Dogs of the TSX” investment strategy which espouses buying the high yield stocks in order to beat the Toronto Stock Exchange. Yes, the high yield stocks did beat the TSX, however, wouldn’t the extra boost of nearly 12x the index be preferred over the 4x gain?
June 2019 Canadian Watch List Continue reading
Canadian Watch List: January 2019
In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has declined and increased in line with the U.S. markets, as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.
From the December 24, 2018 lows, the Toronto Stock Exchange has the following upside resistance targets.
If the trend is up then we should see a retest and support at the 13,780.20 lows. If the trend is down then we should see a retest and failure of the 16,567.40 highs. For now, the Toronto Stock Exchange is expected to achieved the 15,647.62 level. Continue reading
2019 Dogs of the TSX 60
Below is the Dogs of the TSX 60 for 2019 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading
Canadian Watch List: November 2018
TSX 60 Performance Review
Below is the performance review of the Dogs of the TSX 60 stocks since December 13, 2017:
The entire list of stocks in each category has done an about face in terms of performance. In our previous posting on September 23, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) was the best performing category. However, since September 2018, the “high p/b” category has ended up in the plus column while the TSX is now in the negative.
Another curious change is that the “high yield” group is exceeding the “low p/b” and “low p/e” categories but is still unable to exceed the performance of the “low yield” set of stock, as has been the case throughout the year since our December 13, 2017 list was created.
Below is a list of the various stocks within each category and their respective performance since December 13, 2017.
low p/e | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2108 | % chg | high p/e | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2018 | % chg | |
ABX.TO | $17.91 | $17.03 | -4.91% | K.TO | $5.11 | $3.66 | -28.38% | |
POW.TO | $32.24 | $26.41 | -18.08% | WPM.TO | $27.31 | $20.83 | -23.73% | |
ARX.TO | $14.77 | $9.19 | -37.78% | DOL.TO | $52.75 | $34.66 | -34.29% | |
BNS.TO | $82.85 | $72.22 | -12.83% | AEM.TO | $54.34 | $46.11 | -15.15% | |
SLF.TO | $52.32 | $48.74 | -6.84% | FNV.TO | $98.10 | $90.74 | -7.50% | |
CVE.TO | $11.92 | $9.62 | -19.30% | QSR.TO | $79.31 | $77.74 | -1.98% | |
CM.TO | $120.19 | $110.68 | -7.91% | AGU.TO | merged | merged | 0.00% | |
BMO.TO | $100.88 | $98.43 | -2.43% | POT.TO | merged | merged | 0.00% | |
TECK-B.TO | $30.68 | $26.88 | -12.39% | BAM-A.TO | $56.59 | $58.07 | 2.62% | |
HSE.TO | $16.04 | $15.93 | -0.69% | CSU.TO | $780.92 | $933.65 | 19.56% | |
avg. | -12.32% | avg. | -8.89% | |||||
low p/b | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2108 | % chg | high p/b | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2018 | % chg | |
ELD.TO | $1.61 | $0.75 | -53.42% | BCE.TO | $62.82 | $57.09 | -9.12% | |
G.TO | $15.66 | $12.37 | -21.01% | FNV.TO | $98.10 | $90.91 | -7.33% | |
POW.TO | $32.24 | $26.41 | -18.08% | SAP.TO | $44.83 | $40.48 | -9.70% | |
CPG.TO | $8.80 | $3.86 | -56.14% | GIL.TO | $41.25 | $43.73 | 6.01% | |
CCO.TO | $13.40 | $15.86 | 18.36% | QSR.TO | $79.31 | $77.84 | -1.85% | |
YRI.TO | $3.28 | $2.81 | -14.33% | ATD-B.TO | $66.90 | $69.47 | 3.84% | |
CVE.TO | $11.92 | $11.92 | 0.00% | RCI-B.TO | $65.16 | $70.72 | 8.53% | |
FM.TO | $16.55 | $12.10 | -26.89% | CNR.TO | $103.45 | $114.42 | 10.60% | |
TECK-B.TO | $30.68 | $26.88 | -12.39% | CP.TO | $230.75 | $280.96 | 21.76% | |
HSE.TO | $16.04 | $15.93 | -0.69% | CSU.TO | $780.92 | $933.65 | 19.56% | |
avg. | -18.46% | avg. | 4.23% | |||||
low yield | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2108 | % chg | high yield | 12/13/2017 | 11/30/2018 | % chg | |
ABX.TO | $17.91 | $17.03 | -4.91% | BCE.TO | $62.82 | $57.09 | -9.12% | |
DOL.TO | $52.75 | $34.66 | -34.29% | IPL.TO | $27.67 | $21.28 | -23.09% | |
G.TO | $15.66 | $12.35 | -21.14% | EMA.TO | $47.89 | $44.53 | -7.02% | |
YRI.TO | $3.28 | $2.81 | -14.33% | TRP.TO | $62.87 | $54.00 | -14.11% | |
ATD-B.TO | $66.90 | $69.47 | 3.84% | POW.TO | $32.24 | $26.41 | -18.08% | |
L.TO | $68.37 | $60.95 | -10.85% | ENB.TO | $49.58 | $43.36 | -12.55% | |
FM.TO | $16.55 | $12.10 | -26.89% | CPG.TO | $8.80 | $3.86 | -56.14% | |
TECK-B.TO | $30.68 | $26.88 | -12.39% | PPL.TO | $45.00 | $44.52 | -1.07% | |
ECA.TO | $15.11 | $9.05 | -40.11% | T.TO | $48.69 | $47.57 | -2.30% | |
CSU.TO | $780.92 | $933.65 | 19.56% | CM.TO | $120.19 | $110.68 | -7.91% | |
avg. | -14.15% | avg. | -15.14% |
Below is the November 2018 Watch List and the 10-Year Targets for Power Corporation of Canada. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Canadian Dividend Watch List, Dogs of the TSX, POW.TO
Tagged members
Canadian Watch List: September 2018
Below is the Watch List for September 2018.
Canadian Watch List: July 2018
TSX 60 Performance Review
Below is the performance review of the TSX 60 stocks since December 13, 2017:
The TSX 60 is the sixty largest cap stocks in the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) index. It is from this group of stocks that the “Dogs of the TSX” are selected. The Dogs of the TSX are the 10 highest yielding stocks that are expected to outperform the rest of the index.
Canadian Watch List: May 2018
Performance Review
Below is the performance of our Canadian Watch List dated May 14, 2017:
The average change of the entire watch list was –7.48% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of approximately +4.48% over the same period of time. Worth noting are the stocks that the analysts got right in the assessment last year. Those stocks are BCE Inc. (BCE.TO), Cineplex (CGX.TO), and Emera (EMA.TO).
Canadian Watch List: April 2018
Performance Review
Below is the total return performance of stock that appeared on our Canadian Watch List dated April 23, 2017 with prices adjusted for dividend.
symbol | name | 4/21/2017 | 4/26/2018 | 1yr TR |
CGX.TO | Cineplex Inc. | 50.48 | 30.44 | -39.70% |
CPG.TO | Crescent Point Energy Corp. | 13.14 | 11.66 | -11.26% |
EMA.TO | Emera Incorporated | 45.35 | 40.62 | -10.43% |
PLZ-UN.TO | Plaza Retail REIT | 4.6 | 4.2 | -8.70% |
REI-UN.TO | Riocan REIT | 25.04 | 23.07 | -7.87% |
BCE.TO | BCE Inc. | 58.41 | 54.56 | -6.59% |
CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 13.2 | 12.43 | -5.83% |
KEY.TO | Keyera Corp. | 36.44 | 34.45 | -5.46% |
IMO.TO | Imperial Oil Limited | 39.84 | 38.44 | -3.51% |
ACD.TO | Accord Financial Corp. | 8.57 | 8.95 | 4.43% |
FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 19.25 | 20.11 | 4.47% |
ET.TO | Evertz Technologies Limited | 15.85 | 17.59 | 10.98% |
FFH.TO | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 604.56 | 699.61 | 15.72% |
The average return of the entire watch list was –4.90%. This is contrasted with the Toronto Stock Exchange change of +0.07% over the same period. The breakdown of the top five stocks in the individual fundamental categories is as follows:
rank | high p/e | % chg | high p/b | % chg | high yield | % chg |
1 | CGX.TO | -39.70% | CGX.TO | -39.70% | CUF-UN.TO | -5.83% |
2 | EMA.TO | -10.43% | ET.TO | 10.98% | PLZ-UN.TO | -8.70% |
3 | KEY.TO | -5.46% | BCE.TO | -6.59% | REI-UN.TO | -7.87% |
4 | ET.TO | 10.98% | KEY.TO | -5.46% | BCE.TO | -6.59% |
5 | BCE.TO | -6.59% | FFH.TO | 15.72% | EMA.TO | -10.43% |
avg % chg | -10.24% | -5.01% | -7.88% | |||
rank | low p/e | % chg | low p/b | % chg | low yield | % chg |
1 | CUF-UN.TO | -5.83% | CUF-UN.TO | -5.83% | IMO.TO | -3.51% |
2 | REI-UN.TO | -7.87% | CPG.TO | -11.26% | FFH.TO | 15.72% |
3 | ACD.TO | 4.43% | ACD.TO | 4.43% | CPG.TO | -11.26% |
4 | FCR.TO | 4.47% | PLZ-UN.TO | -8.70% | CGX.TO | -39.70% |
5 | PLZ-UN.TO | -8.70% | REI-UN.TO | -7.87% | ACD.TO | 4.43% |
avg % chg | -2.70% | -5.85% | -6.86% |
The Canadian list continues to reflect stocks that perform better in the “low” categories as opposed to the stock in the “high” categories. One point that stands out is that if CGX.TO were omitted from the “low yield” grouping because it appeared in two other “high” categories then the low yield stocks would have averaged +1.34% using four stocks or –0.02% if using the next stock in the ranking (Keyera Corp).
Canadian Watch List: March 2018
Performance Review
Below we have provided the performance of the respective categories to show the difference between selecting the stocks that are in either the top 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranking as opposed to selecting those stocks that are 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranking.
We find the results interesting as there is a material difference in performance. the largest difference gained was in the high p/e stocks where the selection changed the performance from –17.81% to –3.14%. Although not a gain, the improvement was substantial. In fact, all categories gained except the high yield group where the gain was reduced from +11.88% down to +10.23%.
As a group, the entire watch list lost –1.20% on a total return basis as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange change of +1.32% in the same period of time. The best performing stock was Jean Coutu Group (PJC-A.TO) which gained +23.96% and was our strong interest stock of February 27, 2017. The worst performing stock was Cineplex Inc (CGX.TO) which fell –36.33%.