Category Archives: CEPH

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on December 19, 2009 by | Leave a comment
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Symbol

Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B

% from Low

GENZ

Genzyme

48.78

27.81

1.75

N/A

1.68

3.59%

GILD

Gilead

42.83

16.56

2.59

N/A

6.90

5.44%

APOL

Apollo Grp

58.40

15.57

3.75

N/A

7.67

10.63%

CEPH

Cephalon

59.04

16.32

3.62

N/A

2.05

12.35%

ERTS

EA

16.72

N/A

-4.06

N/A

2.02

17.42%

ILMN

Illumina

27.88

38.78

0.72

N/A

3.40

19.71%

BIIB

Biogen

50.07

16.76

2.99

N/A

2.18

19.93%

Leave a comment

Posted in apol, biib, CEPH, erts, GENZ, GILD, ilmn, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, touc

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on December 13, 2009 by | Leave a comment

The following are Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) at $49.74 within 5.63%
  • Apollo Group (APOL) at $56.58 within 7.18%
  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $58.94 within 12.16%
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) at $16.11 within 13.13%
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $46.42 within 14.28%
  • Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) at $25.34 within 16.40%
  • Biogen Idec (BIIB) at $48.65 within 16.53%
  • Pharma. Prod. Dev. (PPDI) at $21.41 within 16.53%

Leave a comment

Posted in apol, biib, CEPH, erts, GENZ, GILD, PPDI, ryaay, touc

Tagged

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on November 27, 2009 by | Leave a comment

The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $55.23 within 5.10%
  • Apollo Group (APOL) at $55.76 within 5.63%
  • Genzyme Corp (GENZ) at $51.07 within 8.45%
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $46.56 within 14.62%
  • Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) at $25.83 within 18.65%
  • Pharma. Prod. Dev. (PPDI) at $21.41 within 19.14%
  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR) at $120.30 within 19.23%
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) at $17.01 within 19.45%

Leave a comment

Posted in apol, CEPH, erts, fslr, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, PPDI, ryaay

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on November 14, 2009 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL) at $53.86 within 2.03%
  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $59.81 within 13.82%
  • Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) at $49.28 within 4.65%
  • Pharma. Products Dev. (PPDI) at $20.66 within 14.97%
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) at $47.05 within 19.51%

Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted in apol, CEPH, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, PPDI

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on November 6, 2009 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL) at $55.99 within 1.16%
  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $58.26 within 10.87%
  • Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) at $52.28 within 11.02%
  • Pharma. Products Dev. (PPDI) at $20.93 within 16.47%
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) at $46.26 within 17.50%

It is interesting to note the percentage change that has occurred in last week's Nasdaq 100 watch list. Last week's list had the following one week percentage change:

  • APOL down 1.94%
  • CEPH up 6.74%
  • GENZ up 3.32%
  • PPDI down 2.88%
  • GILD up 8.72%
  • BIIB up 8.62%
  • SRCL up 3.69%
  • AMGN up 2%

The biotech/pharma sector is moving higher. As we've stated before, these companies are very undervalued at the present time. Do your research and carefully consider the opportunities. Touc.

Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted in amgn, apol, biib, CEPH, GENZ, GILD, PPDI, SRCL

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on October 30, 2009 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL) at $57.10 within 3.16%
  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $54.58 within 3.86%
  • Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) at $50.60 within 7.45%
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) at $42.55 within 8.08%
  • Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB) at $42.13 within 13.22%
  • Stericycle, Inc. (SRCL) at $52.37 within 18.06%
  • Amgen Inc. (AMGN) at $53.62 within 19.26%
  • Pharmaceutical Product Developm (PPDI) at $21.55 within 19.92%

The fact that all of these companies (except for APOL) are within the drug industry does not surprise me. The continued undervaluation of these companies makes them prime targets for acquisition by investors and larger drug companies. Touc.

Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted in amgn, apol, biib, CEPH, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, PPDI, SRCL

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on October 17, 2009 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List
This week the New Low Observer highlights four companies in the Nasdaq 100 that are within 20% of their 52-week low.
  • Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) at 3.56% above their 52-week low.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) at 17.27% above their 52-week low.
  • Stericycle (SRCL) at 17.76% above their 52-week low.
  • Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) at 18.79% above their 52-week low.

Cephalon (CEPH), according to Valueline, normally trades at 12 times cashflow. The cashflow for CEPH in 2007 was $5.41 per share (Mergent’s, was $5.78 for 2007.) Using the smaller figure, we get a price of $64.92 as the average price that the stock has typically reverted to. As the number of shares for CEPH have increased by 11% since 2007, I have adjusted lower the cash flow per share by 11% as a rough gauge of what the historical average price would be at 12x cash flow. The figure that I come up with is $57.72. This is 5.71% above the current price of $54.42. Valueline sees the negative cashflow figures persisting until the foreseeable future. (I have intentionally left out the negative cashflow figures for 2008 because the economy was in recession for the whole year.)

Gilead Sciences (GILD), according to Valueline, should be trading at 20x cashflow. With a cashflow of $2.32 in 2008, GILD averages a price of $46.40. Although Mergent’s has a cashflow figure that is higher, I will go with the most conservative figure that I can find. At the current price of $46.17, GILD is trading at the historical cashflow. Maybe this is a fading star but GILD has never traded below 20x cashflow for an extend period of time.

Based on 2008 cashflow figures from Valueline, Stericycle (SRCL) would trade around the $38.18 range. The 2008 cashflow for SRCL was $2.19 per share. This is significantly above the mean, which makes these share less inviting even though they are within 18% of the 52-week low.

Finally we have Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) at $55.94. This stock has historically traded at 19 times cashflow. The 2008 cashflow for this GENZ was $2.82, according to Mergent’s (Valueline had the higher figure.) GENZ, although selling 19% above the 52-week low, is a far superior value proposition. The shares outstanding have grown by 2.7% from 2006 to 2008 while the long-term debt has fallen by 85% over the same time frame.

Additional analysis will be provided on these companies as long as they stay within 20% of the 1-year low. Touc.

Disclosure: Long CEPH

Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted in CEPH, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, SRCL

A Second Look at Cephalon Inc. (CEPH)

Posted on October 8, 2009 by | Comments Off on A Second Look at Cephalon Inc. (CEPH)
Speculative Observation
It is just our luck that Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) did exactly what we thought would happened based on the chart pattern in our August 27, 2009 article. In that posting, we said that we thought that Cephalon would experience a price breakout starting on the September 5th. The bias that we had in the article was clearly in favor of a stock price rise in the breakout formation. Part of our justification for this was due in part, on the fact that CEPH was, according to our metrics, relatively undervalued. However, we didn't know when and by how much the stock would rise.

On September 21st, Cephalon rose to an intraday high of $69.30, far exceeding our expectations for the stock in the short term. Because this stock does not pay a dividend we could not make a recommendation of this company as an investment observation. It appears that the speculative observation that we gave was appropriate for the recent moves in the price. However, the stock is now approaching the 52-week low again.
Below are the revised figures for the Dow Theory downside targets (since the upside takes care of itself):
  • $40
  • $31.66
  • $14.40
  • $6

For the reasons above, we highly recommend that you re-consider the article written on August 27th. With a $4 billion market cap, this stock should be among your choices of new speculative opportunities. Art and Touc.

Comments Off on A Second Look at Cephalon Inc. (CEPH)

Posted in CEPH, Cephalon Inc., speculation

Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) at $56.61

Posted on August 27, 2009 by | Comments Off on Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) at $56.61
Speculation Observation

Cephalon Inc. (CEPH), according to Yahoo!Finance is, "a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of products for central nervous system, inflammatory disease, pain, and oncology therapeutic areas."

The earnings history of this company is a train wreck filled with inconsistency. This, more than anything else, makes CEPH highly speculative. It seems that this company is still on the borderline of being an upstart biotech company and a major drug manufacturer. I don't understand how Valueline and Morningstar could attach such high expectations as $170 and $140 on the upper end.

This company is within 7.73% of the one year low. This situation may have many reasons why it is trading so close to the low however the technical pattern for this stock is very interesting. As indicated in the chart below, we see that CEPH has an upside down head-and-shoulder formation. In addition, the stock has an ascending low price (red line) that is about to converge with the descending high price (blue line.)

For whatever reason, this stock has the ability to make wide swings up and down within an overall declining trend of the market.

According to Dow Theory, this stock has the following downside targets:
  • $54.20
  • $14.40
  • $4.00
The fact that the stock hit a low of $52.55 recently and turned up could indicate that this stock has seen its bottom.

According to Value Line Investment Survey, CEPH has an average price to cash flow ratio of 14. After adjusting the price/cash flow downward from 95 million to 78 million diluted shares I got an average price of $66.92. This means that the stock is theoretically trading 18% below the average historical price.

However, if we don't adjust for the increase in shares from 78 million to 95 million then we get historical price of $81.62, a 44% difference from the historical average price. We always want to assume the worst in this scenario so we're going with the 18%.

Please check the fundamentals for this company to verify that you've got the guts to hold on to this stock were it to fall to the $39.80 level or lower. Good luck in your research of this company and remember that CEPH is highly speculative.

Art and Touc

Comments Off on Cephalon Inc. (CEPH) at $56.61

Posted in CEPH, Cephalon Inc.

Watch List Update

Posted on July 24, 2009 by | Comments Off on Watch List Update
This week the market took me by surprise. The Dow rose 4%. My watch list shrank from 15 companies to 11 companies. Here are the companies on my watch list as of July 24, 2009.
Dividend Achiever Watch List

Nasdaq 100 Watch List The companies that are within 10% of the low offer a great opportunity to do research and consider buying.

Market Action

The biggest development was the Dow Theory confirmation of a bull market that occurred on Thursday. The Transports confirmed the Industrials with a big move (see charts below).With this action, Richard Russell recommended people to buy Goldman Sachs (GS). I would suggest you consider either the names I recommended on this blog in the watchlist above or the Dow index (DIA) or S&P 500 index (SPY).

Recent Analysis

On July 22, 2009, I wrote an article about the current market and a comparison to the 1980's. It also contained some information and important news on real estate. Also, I did a review of my investment strategy for the Dividend Achiever Carlisle (CSL) on the July 23rd. It was a great position for those who followed my advice.

News & Video

U.S. Home Vacancies Hit 18.7 Million on Bank Seizures

Art

Comments Off on Watch List Update

Posted in ABT, ADP, BCR, CAH, CEPH, ED, FLIR, GENZ, HRB, MATW, MKC, PPDI, SRCL, SYY, WEYS, WMT