Category Archives: Cimarex

Year Over Year: Cimarex Energy Co.

Posted on July 20, 2019 by | Leave a comment

We have some experience with XEC in the past.  On July 17, 2012, we bought the stock and said the following:

“At the quarterly dividend rate of $0.12, we believe that XEC should be sold at a price of $123 or above. This will increase or decrease with the dividend policy.  Based on the previous Altimeter buy indications, investors should expect to hold XEC for 2 to 3 years before the next sell signal.”

The chart below outlines the actual change in Cimarex Energy Co. from when we bought to the present.  Notice how the purchase came after the substantial decline and near the low.  Additionally, our anticipation of when to sell at $123 and above came exactly 2 years later with additional years to unload at $123 if the first opportunity was missed.

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Below is a chart of Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC) from 2003 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.  We’re hopeful that this added perspective will shed some light on the prospects for XEC going forward. Continue reading →

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Posted in Cimarex, XEC, YoY

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Transaction Alert: Bought XEC at the Market

Posted on July 17, 2012 by | Leave a comment

On July 17, 2012, we have bought Cimarex (XEC) at the market.

On June 8, 2012 (found here), we outlined our rational for buying XEC based on having good management and a consistent dividend policy.  Based on the Altimeter, XEC is considered worth purchasing at $72 and below.  At the current price of $56, XEC would have to increase +28% just to get back to the $72 level.

At the quarterly dividend rate of $0.12, we believe that XEC should be sold at a price of $123 or above. This will increase or decrease with the dividend policy.  Based on the previous Altimeter buy indications, investors should expect to hold XEC for 2 to 3 years before the next sell signal.

*NOTE: In our earlier transaction alert for UNM (found here), we indicated that we would allocate 10% of our portfolio to the stock.  Instead, we have reduced the allocation by half, to 5%, and bought XEC with the other 5%.  This allows us to take advantage of two opportunities which we fully expect to add to as the price declines.

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Posted in Altimeter, Cimarex, Edson Gould, Transaction Alert, UNM, Unum, XEC

Cimarex (XEC) at a New Low

Posted on June 8, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Today, Cimarex (XEC) hit a new 1 and 2-year low as the energy sector continues to fall apart.  We like Cimarex (XEC) because it is a spin-off from Helmerich & Payne (HP) which has had a tremendous dividend increasing history.  Additionally, we have been very fortunate in being able to call most of the peaks and troughs in the price of Helmerich & Payne found at the links below:

Cimarex appears to be willing to continue the conservative management style that got Helmerich & Payne through hard times in the oil drilling industry during the 1980’s and 1990’s.  Therefore, we believe that Cimarex should be on your watch list as well.

Below is the Altimeter for Cimarex since being spun off from Helmerich & Payne:

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note: dividend data prior to 2006 is hypothetical based on $0.04 quarterly payment

We believe that whenever the Altimeter is trading at or above 1032 the stock should be sold.  Additionally, whenever Cimarex’s Altimeter is trading at 600 or below, the stock should be considered for acquisition.  Below is the performance of buy and sell indications based on the Altimeter levels just mentioned:

Date Price Altimeter buy/sell % change
6/26/2003 23.96 599 buy 72.29%
3/3/2005 41.28 1032 sell -47.25%
10/10/2008 32.66 544 buy 90.02%
3/11/2010 62.06 1034 sell -42.18%
8/22/2011 59.81 598 buy ??????????

Our expectation is that Cimarex may decline as low as, and possibly lower, than the 2009 level on the Altimeter.  That would equal a price of $31.80, or -30% from the current price.  A purchase of the stock at this time may be warranted, based on the Altimeter.  However, be prepared to buy more at lower prices.

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Posted in Altimeter, Cimarex, Edson Gould, Helmerich & Payne, HP, XEC

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