Category Archives: Commentary

Dividend Achiever Watch List

Posted on May 7, 2010 by | 1 comment
At the end of the week, our watch list ballooned to 62 companies. Here is the watch list which ranks current and former Dividend Achievers that are within 20% of the 52-week low for May 7, 2010. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy.  Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy.  Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence.

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS Div/Shr Yield Payout Ratio
MON Monsanto Co. 59.09 3.14% 24.62 2.40 1.06 1.79% 44%
HSC Harsco Corp. 26.38 3.37% 19.69 1.34 0.82 3.11% 61%
FRS Frisch's Restaurants, Inc 20.77 4.32% 10.49 1.98 0.52 2.50% 26%
SHEN Shenandoah Telecom 16.95 5.28% 26.48 0.64 0.32 1.89% 50%
VIVO Meridian Bioscience Inc.  18.29 5.66% 23.15 0.79 0.76 4.16% 96%
ADM Archer Daniels Midland Co. 25.94 6.97% 10.67 2.43 0.60 2.31% 25%
HCC HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. 24.71 7.06% 7.95 3.11 0.54 2.19% 17%
DNB Dun & Bradstreet Corp. 74.10 7.24% 14.88 4.98 1.40 1.89% 28%
THFF First Financial Corp. Indiana  27.19 7.34% 15.72 1.73 0.90 3.31% 52%
LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. 34.62 7.55% 8.92 3.88 1.96 5.66% 51%
OTTR Otter Tail Corp.  20.10 7.89% 28.31 0.71 1.19 5.92% 168%
T AT&T Inc 25.10 8.24% 12.49 2.01 1.68 6.69% 84%
CWT California Water Service Group 36.26 8.27% 18.79 1.93 1.19 3.28% 62%
VVC Vectren Corp. 23.25 8.70% 14.18 1.64 1.36 5.85% 83%
FII Federated Investors Inc 23.53 8.94% 12.01 1.96 0.96 4.08% 49%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp.   63.70 8.96% 14.51 4.39 1.76 2.76% 40%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co. 43.50 9.77% 15.37 2.83 1.66 3.82% 59%
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc.  22.87 9.85% 20.60 1.11 0.64 2.80% 58%
SVU SUPERVALU INC 13.40 10.47% 7.24 1.85 0.35 2.61% 19%
WMT Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 52.40 10.67% 14.16 3.70 1.21 2.31% 33%
FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc.  51.44 10.72% 19.94 2.58 1.36 2.64% 53%
CTWS Connecticut Water Service, Inc.  21.39 10.77% 17.97 1.19 0.91 4.25% 76%
NTRS Northern Trust Corp.  51.80 10.87% 16.29 3.18 1.12 2.16% 35%
MDU MDU Resources Group Inc. 18.47 10.93% 13.10 1.41 0.63 3.41% 45%
UHT Universal Health Realty Income 32.30 11.03% 20.84 1.55 2.40 7.43% 155%
UMBF UMB Financial Corp.  40.36 11.06% 17.47 2.31 0.74 1.83% 32%
TMP Tompkins Financial Corp. 38.60 11.41% 12.78 3.02 1.36 3.52% 45%
GS* Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.   142.99 11.66% 5.96 24.01 1.40 0.98% 6%
WTR Aqua America Inc 17.39 13.00% 22.58 0.77 0.58 3.34% 75%
SPH Suburban Propane Partners L.P. 44.10 13.08% 11.28 3.91 3.36 7.62% 86%
FPL FPL Group, Inc. 51.22 13.09% 11.59 4.42 2.00 3.90% 45%
AROW Arrow Financial Corp.  25.96 13.20% 13.88 1.87 1.00 3.85% 53%
STT State Street Corp. 41.34 13.73% -10.08 -4.10 0.04 0.10% -1%
ABT Abbott Laboratories 48.72 13.96% 14.29 3.41 1.76 3.61% 52%
BXS BanCorp.South Inc. 20.19 15.04% 27.28 0.74 0.88 4.36% 119%
PGN Progress Energy, Inc. 38.83 15.05% 14.33 2.71 2.48 6.39% 92%
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc   23.53 15.46% 12.26 1.92 1.46 6.20% 76%
NJR New Jersey Resources Corp. 35.76 15.54% 29.80 1.20 1.36 3.80% 113%
BEC Beckman Coulter, Inc. 60.12 15.99% 25.15 2.39 0.72 1.20% 30%
SYBT S.Y. BanCorp., Inc.  22.98 16.06% 18.99 1.21 0.68 2.96% 56%
TR Tootsie Roll Industries Inc  25.42 16.45% 27.33 0.93 0.32 1.26% 34%
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. 19.01 16.48% 18.10 1.05 0.31 1.63% 30%
ATO Atmos Energy Corp. 27.33 16.60% 12.15 2.25 1.34 4.90% 60%
AWR American States Water Co. 36.12 17.20% 22.30 1.62 1.04 2.88% 64%
NUE Nucor Corp. 44.90 17.32% -187.08 -0.24 1.44 3.21% -600%
PX Praxair, Inc. 78.88 17.40% 19.29 4.09 1.80 2.28% 44%
SFNC Simmons First National Corp.  28.07 17.45% 17.12 1.64 0.76 2.71% 46%
BMI Badger Meter, Inc. 38.41 17.89% 17.70 2.17 0.48 1.25% 22%
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc.  30.76 17.90% 11.19 2.75 1.30 4.23% 47%
MATW Matthews International Corp.  32.51 18.13% 15.71 2.07 0.28 0.86% 14%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson   63.31 18.25% 13.30 4.76 2.16 3.41% 45%
SBSI Southside Bancshares, Inc.  20.61 18.51% 7.75 2.66 0.65 3.15% 24%
PFE Pfizer Inc 16.46 18.84% 13.38 1.23 0.72 4.37% 59%
APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. 70.98 19.09% 17.79 3.99 1.96 2.76% 49%
DBD Diebold, Inc. 28.92 19.26% 40.17 0.72 1.08 3.73% 150%
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. 88.14 19.46% 46.15 1.91 1.60 1.82% 84%
UGI UGI Corp. 26.47 19.72% 12.09 2.19 0.80 3.02% 37%
BCR CR Bard, Inc. 82.97 19.83% 17.54 4.73 0.68 0.82% 14%
CTAS Cintas Corp.  25.54 19.91% 23.87 1.07 0.48 1.88% 45%
MGEE MGE Energy Inc.  35.32 20.05% 15.98 2.21 1.47 4.16% 67%
BMS Bemis Co Inc 27.70 20.28% 21.47 1.29 0.92 3.32% 71%
WGL WGL Holdings, Inc. 34.44 20.46% 15.31 2.25 1.51 4.38% 67%
62 Companies

*Goldman Sachs isn't a former or current dividend achiever but I feel that it is worth watching because it could be the proxy of our financial system.


Watch List Summary

The best performing stock from last week's list was Simmons First National (SFNC) which was at break-even. The worst performing stock was Harsco (HSC) which fell 14.8%. Overall, the Dividend Achiever watch list lost 4.9% versus the Dow which was down 5.7%.

Never before have we seen this many companies on our watch list. Part of the reason could be because the 52-week time frame now ranges from May 2009 to May 2010. You may remember that when the market bottomed in March 2009, I suggest that investors look at the company's performance at its worse possible level, which in many cases was the March 2009 low. 
Use this list to your advantage. There are (and will be) great companies paying nice dividends with low payout ratios. Place these companies in your own watch list so that when opportunities arise, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety.
Market Commentary
As you may have noticed from our watch list, the market took a turn similar to what happened in January when the Dow retraced about 7% from the peak. At the close of Friday at 10,380, we've pulled back 7% from the closing high. It is interesting to note that in January, the Greek tragedy was already known so this shouldn't have surprised us. Our only concern at this point is, will the Dow fail to hold above the 150-day moving average which has been a strong support level for the market since July. (see chart below)

After seeing what took place on Thursday, I have increased my requirement for a margin of safety in new investment stakes. For example, I may look at companies that are within 15% of a new low instead of 20%. In considering companies to buy or sell, I would aim for a deeper discount (lower price) if I plan to buy and take smaller "fair profits" if I plan to sell. Remember, the market isn't cheap by any standard. With the latest figures I calculated, based on the Friday close, the Dow is now trading at 15x trailing earnings and 11x forward earnings. This assume 36% earning growth for the Dow. On a yield basis, the Dow is trading at 2.76%. Using the Thursday low, the yield was close to 3%. - Art

Email our team here.

1 Comment

Posted in Commentary, Dividend Achiever Watch List

Tagged

Market Commentary

Posted on February 7, 2010 by | Comments Off on Market Commentary
It was a volatile week for the Dow which closed the week 12 points above 10,000. During the week the Dow climbed as high as 10,300 then fell below 9,900. The charts below illustrate things to look out for.
The Dow has gotten support (green arrow) from the 150 days moving average back in July 2009. Another two supports came at the 50 days moving average. Currently, the market showed some strength in being able to rebound off the moving average and closed well above it.
The Transportation index shows a entirely different story. After a strong run up to 4,200 level, the index appears to be getting weaker and weaker. The index was supported back in July but Thursday closed below the 150 day moving average which is bearish. Moreover, the index tried to break above the 150 day moving average but couldn't managed to get through (red arrow).
The two charts above suggest some kind of divergence between the two indexes. I'm not implying that this is a Dow Theory sell signal but that possibility isn't far out given the way the market is behaving. In addition, even if a sell signal is to occurred, it doesn't mean sell all your holdings and go into cash. Similar to a buy signal which investors shouldn't interpret as "all in." Investors should instead focus on seeking fair profits which isn't hard to understand but rather hard to implement.
Short-term rally could come within a week or two as the bottoming in several technical indicators (RSI & MACD) indicated.
I suggest everyone to revisit our article 3 Steps to Investment Success for a better understanding of our investing strategy.
- Art

Comments Off on Market Commentary

Posted in Commentary, fair profit

Market Commentary

Posted on January 24, 2010 by | Comments Off on Market Commentary

A lot of selling occurred in the market over the past several days. The beginning of earnings season often brings volatility to the market. Sometime for the good and sometime for the bad. I'm not quite sure what will happen but it doesn't hurt for market participants to be a little more cautious.

For the first time since June 2009, the Dow broke below its 50 day moving average for two consecutive days. The support at 10,300 was shattered at the close today so look for 10,100 to be the next level. It's worrisome that the index is far from the 150 day moving average of 9,700 range. What's more interesting and rather worrisome is the fact that the Industrial now closed below the halfway or 50% principal of 10,355 (please refer to Dow Theory posting on 1/10/2010). There are both bull and bear cases to be had.

The Transports broke the 4,050 today and gave us a weak signal going into the weekend.. Because of the Transports prior attempted to break 4,050 level 3 times last year, we are now in the danger zone.

Individually, companies have reported magnificent results. You would think that beating the street estimates would bring shares up but instead the opposite has occurred. Take a look at Intel which reported amazing results last Thursday. Earnings beat the street by 33% ($0.40 vs $0.30). Revenue guidance also came ahead of consensus. Intel shares were trading around $21.50 but now trading around $20.80. IBM is another name that beat the street but shares fell. This could be just tech related headlines. I begin to wonder if some of these names are fully valued.
Despite the negative forces in the market, a name that performed rather well was the one we prompted you to, Supervalu (SVU) which rose 7.6% over this past 5 days compared to the Dow and S&P 500 which lost 5%.

I recalled at the beginning of the week, Jim Cramer was very bullish on the market because Scott Brown won an election in MA. Citing CNBC, "Cramer says a win for Brown in MA could send stocks much higher." If this was the case, how can the Dow lose 435 points?

- Art

Comments Off on Market Commentary

Posted in Commentary, Jim Cramer