Category Archives: Coppock Curve

Coppock Curve: March 2016

Posted on April 3, 2016 by | 2 comments

The Dow Jones Industrial average had an outstanding gain in the month of March. The blue chip index rose +7%. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: February 2016

Posted on March 5, 2016 by | Leave a comment

The Dow Jones Industrial average gained ground in February.   However, that didn’t change the direction of the Coppock Curve which dipped to –23.4.  Below is the current chart of the curve. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: January 2016

Posted on February 6, 2016 by | Leave a comment

We started the year off on with a big market selloff.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -5.4% in January.  For the first time since June 2008, the Coppock Curve dipped into negative territory.  This is a welcoming sign for our team and any long-term investors.  Below is the current chart of the Coppock Curve. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: November 2015

Posted on December 2, 2015 by | Leave a comment

The market was flat for the month of November. However, it didn't stop the Coppock indicator to fall another -20% or 6.2 points. As always, we remind our readers that the Coppock Curve serves as a buy signal when they it turns upward after moving into negative territory. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: October 2015

Posted on October 31, 2015 by | 1 comment

The market reversed a recent declining trend in October by increasing +8%.  Despite the reversal of the trend, the Coppock indicator continued its downward path.  The index fell 9.8 points and is only 32 points away from approaching negative territory.  As always, we remind our readers that the Coppock Curve serves as a buy signal when they it turns upward after moving into negative territory. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: September 2015

Posted on October 15, 2015 by | 2 comments

The market continued its down draft in September.  Long-term investors should be very excited to see the market pull back.  Our Coppock indicator is approaching a level we haven’t seen since 2008.  As a reminder, the Coppock Curve serves as a buy signal when they it turns upward after moving into negative territory.

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Coppock Curve: August 2015

Posted on September 5, 2015 by | Leave a comment

It didn't take long for the market to cave in after our July post on the Coppock Curve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed -6.5% in August alone. Immediately, we were curious what type of damage this decline did to the indicator and how close are we to that negative territory. As a reminder, the Coppock Curve serves as a buy signals only. Continue reading →

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Coppock Curve: July 2015

Posted on August 8, 2015 by | Leave a comment

It's been quite sometime since we've updated our readers on Coppock Curve.  We've gotten more excited to see this indicator approach zero because it would point to a major opportunity to be long equities. While the indicator provides buy signals it doesn't offer any sell indication. As such, one can only take this as a buy only indicator.

Coppock July 2015

About Coppock Curve

The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.

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Coppock Curve: March 2015

Posted on April 17, 2015 by | 1 comment

The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.

Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month. Our last “buy” indication came at the end of April 2009. Anyone who purchased the Dow Jones Industrial ETF (DIA) on the first trading day of May 2009, they would have gained +109% in the process (based on the closing price of March 2015).

While the curve remain positive, the direction and the slope is negative.  We would get excited if and when this indicator reach the negative zone.  We will certainly update our readers when that time comes.

image

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Coppock Curve: May 2014

Posted on June 6, 2014 by | 1 comment

The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.

Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month. Our last “buy” indication came at the end of April 2009. Anyone who purchased the Dow Jones Industrial ETF (DIA) on the first trading day of May 2009, they would have gained +104% in the process (based on the closing price of May 2014).

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Coppock Curve: March 2013

Posted on March 28, 2013 by | Leave a comment

The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory and then starts to turn decidedly upwards. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.

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Coppock Curve: July 2012

Posted on August 1, 2012 by | 2 comments

The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buying signals. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory and then starts to turn decidedly upwards. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.

Once the signal starts to turn up, investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month after the indicator turns upward. Our last "buy" indication came at the end of April 2009. Anyone who purchased the Dow Jones Industrial ETF (DIA) on the first trading day of May 2009, they would have gained +59% in the process.

After July 2012, the Coppock Curve remains far from the negative zone. This suggests that, overall, the market is not considered a "buy."

More about the Coppock Curve.

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Market Review and Analysis

Posted on January 28, 2011 by | Leave a comment
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) approaches the 12,000 level, we believe it is necessary to review our analysis leading up to this point. There have been indications that the market would knock on the door of 12,000. And we’ve been at the forefront of this analysis very early on.
Starting as early as February 12, 2009 (article here), we warned that despite the declining trend in the markets, history has proven that declines of 40% or more tend to retrace 60% to 100% of the previous decline.
In September 2009, after reviewing the Coppock Curve (article here), we pointed out that if the market held up in October 2009 that 12,000 on the Dow would not be an unrealistic price target.
In January 2010, we mistakenly thought that the Dow had a good chance to reach 12,000 by February 2010 (article here). Although we were woefully inaccurate in the timing of our estimate, we were convinced that 12,000 as an upside target was not unreasonable.
On March 23, 2010, we came out with an article that highlighted what we thought was confirmation of a cycle low in the market on February 8th (article here). In retrospect, although it was a major low for the year 2010, it was not as significant as the July 2010 low. However, we reiterated 12,000 as the target for the Dow.
Our eyes are now trained on the next target for the market. This is where our “analysis” is put to the test. All along we’ve thought that a rise from 6,400 to 12,000 would not be very unusual. However, getting back to even, or 14,164, will be very challenging. There are many who feel that external forces have falsified the markets rise.
As far as we’re concerned, we’ve accomplished the target that was long since projected and is now upon us. As we’ve indicated in a recent article, the Dow Industrials’ upward trend has less to do with the actions of the Federal Reserve and more to do with the corrective nature of markets after a significant plunge like in the period from October 2007 to March 2009 (article here).
We’ve noted in the article titled “Diversification Doesn’t Matter” that declines in the Dow will be amplified in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index (article here). Exposure to these diversified indexes through the use of index funds and ETFs will result in surprising losses that defy the theory of diversification as was the case in 2008.
We believe that as long as the price of gold keeps moving higher in conjunction with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) and Dow Theory confirmations of the bullish trend continue, there is a good chance that the market will retrace 100% of the previous decline from 2007 to 2009. At times like these, the rise and fall of the price of gold may be a leading indicator for where the market might be headed. Our numerous articles on the correlation between gold and the stock market have proven to be correct for those willing to accept the data from an unemotional standpoint (article link).
Although it is not unusual for markets to retrace 100% of a prior decline of 40% or more, we’re more than willing to figuratively step aside and watch what happens next. However, we cannot help taking another stab at when, and not at what exact level, the Dow Industrials will peak. Two prior articles on the topic are the basis for our thoughts on the prospects for where the top may occur.
On June 14, 2010, we wrote an article titled, “A Market Cycle Worth Observing” (article here). In that article, we reminded readers of the consistency of 4-year cycles to provide key markers for tops and bottoms in the market. We included referenced from Charles H. Dow’s era, founder of the Wall Street Journal, from 1901 and prior. We gave examples as provide by Richard Russell from 1953 to 1979. We were even able to provide examples from the period between 1987 and 2009.
If there really are 4-year cycles, as we contend, then October 2007 would stand as the marker for the last peak in the cycle. In theory, the mid-point for the peak would be some point in 2009. For us, March 9, 2009 represents the low or mid-point for the 4-year cycle. Our estimate is that the full 4-year cycle should be completed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking at some point in 2011.
According to Dow Theory, the downside target is set at 9,273.50. If this level is breached in conjunction with the Dow Transports, then we could consider a bear market has been initiated.
The second article that we derived our view of the market is dated April 11, 2010 on the topic of Dow Theory (located here). In that market analysis, we proposed, in addition to the fact that the Dow Industrials “…could go to 11,574.59 with no problem,” we outlined three hypothetical scenarios under which the Dow Industrials would reach 14,164.
In retrospect, and upon further analysis, we realized that those projections were really indications for when the market would top irrespective of the exact level that the top would occur. It seems to us that the period from January 31, 2011 to June 18, 2011 is the timeframe for when the completion of the cycle should take place.
Despite our concerns for an eminent top in the market, we will continue to buy and sell individual stocks. From our experience in 2008, gains can be obtained from individual stocks within the context of a declining trend in the market. In fact, during 2008 there were only three months where losses were registered which were June, October and November. Although these months incurred substantial losses, 2008 ended with overall gains of 14% in our portfolio (article link).

 

Please revisit New Low Observer for edits and revisions to this post. Email us.

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Posted in 4 1/2 year, 4 year, Coppock Curve, Dow Theory, gold, Richard Russell

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Coppock Curve Q & A

Posted on April 1, 2010 by | Leave a comment
A reader asks:
"Isn't it possible to determine good times to sell stocks using the Coppock Curve?"
Touc's reply:
My understanding of the Coppock Curve is that it is strictly for the purpose of giving buy signals. Sell signals are purely coincidental if they occur at all.
Drawing from Mr. Coppock's own words in Barron's October 15, 1962 article, Mr. Coppock states that,"It [Coppock Curve] gives a so-called buy signal."(page 5) Mr. Coppock goes even further to state that, "Because well-timed buying is far more difficult for the nonprofessional investor than timely selling, it is best to think of the curve as a very long-term buying guide. Its formula was devised for that type of use." (page 5,16)

In James Dines' book Technical Analysis (page 377, 1972), there is no mention of the Coppock Curve as being able to provide a sell signal or eminent market slumps. Any mention of the Coppock Curve was with the ability of the Curve to "pinpoint the start of new trends and enable investors to select future market leaders." (page 378)
There seems to be no evidence that would suggest that the Coppock Curve should be used to determine potential declines. Instead, the Curve should only be tested on its ability to accurately call the bottom in a given stock or index.
Best regards.
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Market Checkup: Coppock Curve

Posted on March 31, 2010 by | Leave a comment
It's been quite some time since we made an update to the Coppock Curve. The curve or index moved into positive territory in January 2010. Let me remind you that the Coppock Curve is only a buying indicator and tells us nothing about selling. For an indicator to become bullish, the curve has to be in a negative territory and turning upward. I indicated that the bullish indicator came in May 2009 when the index rose from -386 to -380. Table below shows the March low (2009) up until now.

Date Index
Mar-09 -374.4
Apr-09 -386.0
May-09 -380.5
Jun-09 -376.5
Jul-09 -357.8
Aug-09 -319.1
Sep-09 -265.3
Oct-09 -212.7
Nov-09 -147.3
Dec-09 -61.7
Jan-10 25.1
Feb-10 95.0
Mar-10 168.0

The chart below shows that we are clearly in the positive territory. This leave us with one thing, for the curve to turn negative and reverse for a possible buy signal.

If this curve isn't an indication to sell, then why am I writing about this? Because I believe that it is a great tool for long-term investors and they should be aware of this unique indicator. When the index turned  upward in May 09', many small investors, myself included, were still bearish on the market and ignored this technical indicator. Emotions and anger about the bailout clouded our judgment. As a result, many missed the chance to buy the market via ETFs or mutual funds. Even though I was bearish, I stated in that article "This could be the beginning of a greatest investment opportunity if you look in the right place. I suggest you begin accumulating shares but with caution!"

The good news is that some time in the future, this curve will turn negative again. We'll be more excited when that happens. The bad news is, we just don't know when this will happen. Until then, do your research on the Coppock Curve to see if this indicator can be of any benefit to your investment strategy. We will keep an updated chart on the curve and update you when an opportune time arrives.

Click here for more explanation on the Coppock Curve and here for the calculation method. - Art

Quote of the day:

"To know values is to know the meaning of the market. And values, when applied to stocks, are determined in the end by the dividend yield." Charles H. Dow.
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