Category Archives: Crude Oil

2020 Year to Date Investment Returns

Posted on December 19, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider.  This includes the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Posted in Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Dogs of the Dow, Index YTD

2020 Year to Date Investment Returns

Posted on November 28, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider.  This includes the top three low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

image

see also:

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Posted in Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Cyclical Trends, Dogs of the Dow, Index YTD

Crash in Oil: Price Is Your Guide

Posted on April 22, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On June 15, 2019, we published our Crude Oil Cyclical Trends (WTI). In that review, we said the following:

“Our assessment of the data, as is commonly the case, is to default to the most conservative scenario.  In the case of the latest decline in the price of oil from June 27, 2018 to the present, we calculated the decline of -52.98% as a possible turning point for the price of oil.  A decline to such a level would bring the price of oil to $36.40, an additional decline of -29.40%.”

As seen in the table that we provided at the time, there was precedent for the price of oil to decline to $22.71.  We always start from the conservative view and that is why we utilized the -52.98% level as a target (the smallest decline for a full cycle).  If we had applied the previous worst case scenario, we would have generated a decline in oil to $16.15.

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As absurd as it sounds, oil stands at $14.62 and that is a rebound from a staggering low.  Below, we project the upside resistance targets and provide strategies to employ if you must own oil related investments. Continue reading →

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Posted in Crude Oil, SRL

2015 Reprint: Consequences of Falling Oil Prices

Posted on April 4, 2020 by | Leave a comment

It was merely an observation at the time.  However, we find it necessary to reprint a piece from 2015 on the outcome of falling oil prices and our thoughts about it at the time.  Please click on the image or the following link: Consequences of Falling Oil Prices

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Posted in Crude Oil, Dow Theory, Peso Crisis, Richard Russell, S&L Crisis, XOI

Crude Oil: Price Targets

Posted on June 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside and downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines. Continue reading →

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Posted in Crude Oil, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, upside target

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Crude Oil: Cyclical Trends

Posted on June 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Drawing from the data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we have outlined the cyclical trends in the price of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate (DCOILWTICO) from 1986 to 2019.

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In the period from 1986 to 1998, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +279% and a decline of -73%.

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In the period from 1998 to 2001, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +243% and a decline of -52%.

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In the period from 2001 to 2008, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +729% and a decline of -79%.

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In the period from 2008 to 2016, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +274% and a decline of -76%.

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In the period from 2016 to the present, oil has experienced a cycle that included an increase of 195% and a decline of -42%.

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The data from the peak in 2018 to the most recent low at $44.48 is provided to reflect the cycle up to this point in time.  The table below reflects the date, price, and percentage change (excluding the peak to trough from June 2018 to December 2018). When all declining periods are included, the average decline is -65.04%.

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Our assessment of the data, as is commonly the case, is to default to the most conservative scenario.  In the case of the latest decline in the price of oil from June 27, 2018 to the present, we calculated the decline of -52.98% as a possible turning point for the price of oil.  A decline to such a level would bring the price of oil to $36.40, an additional decline of -29.40%.

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Posted in Crude Oil, Cyclical Trends