Category Archives: CTRX

Performance Review

Below is the watch list from December 6, 2013 and the subsequent performance over the last year:

Below is the chart of analyst estimated returns from December 6, 2013 compared to the performance one year later:

In the example above, we see that, in general, the stocks performed in opposition to what analysts had anticipated.  It is important to note that we routinely recommend that investors consider the stocks that have the worst prospects first based on analyst estimates.  After appropriate due diligence, stocks deemed unacceptable risks should be eliminated.

As has been the case for some time, analyst estimates have fallen far from the mark when assessing the prospects for stocks.  At the time, Equinix (EQIX) was considered by analysts to have the worst prospects.  As it happens, Equinix managed to gain the most among the stocks that we tracked last year.  For our part, we had EQIX on our radar as early as July 26, 2013.  We said the following of the stock:

“A stock that is establishing a significant technical pattern is Equinix (EQIX).  It seems that Equinix is developing a ‘head and shoulder’ formation.  this suggests that a further decline below $176 will result in a minimum decline to the conservative downside target of $158.37.  We would consider a review of EQIX fundamentals at or below $110.”

Our concern for downside risk resulted in being too cautious.  However, after our July 26, 2013 commentary, EQIX declined from $183.75 to the Edson Gould SRL conservative downside target of $158.37.  Once achieving the low at $155, EQIX started to make the long climb higher.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 5, 2014

The following are the stocks that are on our watch list with Analyst Estimates: