Category Archives: Dividend Achiever Watch List

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from April 8, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

The top five companies did exceptionally well with average gains of +43.70%. During the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 returned +17.50% and +15%, respectively. At the time, it was clear to us that the financial sector was the weakest of all industry groups judging by the number of companies belonging to the watch list. The following excerpt was taken from our post last year.

There are too many banks on the list to focus on so anyone interested in taking a early stake in the sector should consider ETFs such as XLF or VFH as the low may not be in yet.  The Wall Street Journal published a good piece on the sector titled, Miserable Year for Banks: Stocks Suffer as Rates Stay Low.

Those ETFs mentioned above (XLF and VFH) returned +32% in one year.

In addition to the financials, we pointed out two companies in the agriculture sector to watch out for, they were Monsanto (MON) and Lindsay (LNN) which returned +34% and +27%, respectively. We said the following about these two companies:

Two companies in the agricultural sectors are trading near their yearly low and worth a look.  Monsanto (MON) and Lindsay (LNN) may have not reached their respective "bottoms" but one should start research at these levels to identify their respective intrinsic values. Our valuation models suggest a possible downside risk of -30% for both companies. How likely are they to reach that level is to be seen. However, one can never pick the exact bottom of the stock price and multiple purchases is a great strategy to deploy. Because Lindsay (LNN) was on our list last year and remain in the same position, we interpret this as a potential bottoming process in the company.

U.S Dividend Watch List: April 7, 2017

The market continues to trade in a tight range between 2,300 and 2,350. We'll have to see if it can hold the 2,300 level and possibly retest 2,400. Despite being near an all-time high, we continue to seek long-term investments at a reasonable price and below are 28 companies you should consider. Continue reading →

Prior Year Top Five Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from March 25, 2016 and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

The average return for the top five companies from last year is +27.30% with the biggest gain coming from General Dynamics (GD). The company was trading at 14x net income last year when it appeared on the list. Fast forward to today, the stock is trading at nearly 20x net income so while net income rose only 5%, most of the gain came from multiple expansion. The worst performer was AIG (AIG) which gained +14.90% or 0.2% below the market.

U.S Dividend Watch List: March 24, 2017

The market fell -1.40% for the week with the S&P 500 is approaching 2,300. We'll take a flyer on the idea that a consolidation phase is occurring before any move up or down. Below is the watch list containing 26 companies on our dividend watch list. Continue reading →

The S&P 500 appears to be consolidating between 2,350 and 2,400. We will be looking to see if the bull can push above 2,400 level this week.

Although the stock market is virtually at its all-time high, the market fundamentals are comparable to last year. We observed the market multiple of 24x in September 2016 which is the same multiple we are seeing now.  One thing to note is rising interest rates during the same time frame.  The 10-year notes rose to 2.50% from 1.60%, a staggering +56% increase in rate. However, at the same time the stock market is up more than +10%.

As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats.  A bull market lifts all companies and there are only 20 companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading →

Top Five Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from March 4, 2017 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

We highlighted the top two companies last year. Needless to say, they've done well. However, our assessment of Monsanto (MON) was not accurate as we suggested our reader to be more careful of the projected valuation. Valueline estimated shares to be undervalued by 40% at the time and shares have risen 33% since last year. As for AIG (AIG), shares were trading 30% below book value last year. Since then, shares have climbed 22%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 3, 2017

Another week, another record high which lead to potential rate hike by the Fed. We'll have an update to the Coppock Curve mid week. Until then, please review the list below for dividend paying company trading at or near the low.

Continue reading →

Previous Year Performance Review

In our on going review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from February 19, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

The top five companies on our watch list had an average gain of 19.7% which trailed the average 6%. One of the factor contributing to our underperformance, if you consider 19.7% as such, came from Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) which didn't trade up or down due to the acquisition. Shares remained flat for the entire year. Although we spoke little about the list, we were lucky enough to highlight two companies with exceptional performance. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and Cintas (CTAS) were the two companies our team eluded to. Cintas rose 42% and Stanley Black & Decker rose 37%. Our justification for their consideration was because they were part of an elite group called Dividend Aristocrat.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 17, 2017

Another week, another record for the market. The bull continued to push the market higher but in contrary, the number of company approaching the low has not decline much. Below are 22 companies on our watch list. Continue reading →

The bull is back in charge as of Friday and is looking to take the market back to its all-time high. Despite political turmoil and uncertainly, the market appears to be looking onward and forward. At the end of the week, there are 28 companies on our list. Continue reading →

It was another record breaking week for the market as the bulls continued to march forward. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average reaching an all-time highs, there was a lot of talk about Dow Theory. Our team has studied Dow Theory in finer detail than most and would urge all readers to review our latest commentary titled Dow Theory: Myth & Fact. We would not encourage those on the sideline to jump into the market now but here are 18 companies to consider if one choose to do so.

Watch List Review

We mentioned this before and will reiterate again that one shouldn't rush into the market at its all-time high. Recently, our team took a sizable position in Coca-Cola (KO) which is trading at less than 5% above its yearly low. The most recent headline is the change at the top with the current CEO set to step down next year. Perhaps this is a good/bad thing, we do not know. Our action stems from our assessment that downside risk are minimal at the current price. The dividend yield of 3.3% is also enticing for long term investors.

Our team ran some risk-reward profiles for Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Hormel Foods (HRL), Nike (NKE), and VF Corp (VFC) . We are cautious on these companies currently.

There is one company that would be interesting to dive into. It is DENTSPLY International (XRAY). This company is the world's largest manufacturer of professional dental products. The company consistently performed well with an average ROE of 15% since 1988. Dividend yield is negligible now but the company could return more to shareholders in the future.

Disclaimer On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

Top Five Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from November 6, 2015 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Prior Year Performance Review

The average gain for the top five companies was +11.10% compared to the market performance which was virtually flat. The largest gain came from Questar (STR) which gained +31.60% as a result of a take over from Dominion Resources (D). The agreement was for a $25 cash per share while Dominion assume any outstanding debt.

We spoke briefly about IBM (IBM) as well. Because shares hit 52-week low for three straight years, we thought it was proper to start looking at IBM. Below is an excerpt from last year.

We believe it is a good time to start considering IBM as part of a long-term holding. The company continues to have Warren Buffett's support. The company has a 10% earnings yield and is expected to rise with 2016 expected earnings growth. On October 30th, we modeled IBM's speed resistance line with downside risk to $100 and possible upside to $160.

Shares of IBM rose +10% and after potentially reaching its bottom.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 4, 2016

It was a rough week for the bulls as the market fell 2%. This is the last week until the election thus we're not surprised by the volatility. However, it will be interesting to see where we stand at the end of next week. For now, here are 43 companies to ponder about.

Continue reading →

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from October 16, 2015 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

The average gain for the top five companies was +16.20% which outperformed the market by a wide margin. The S&P 500 gained less than +5% over the same time frame. the best performer was a farm equipment supplier, Lindsay Corp (LNN). The worst performer was State Street (STT) which was virtually flat. Luckily, our assessment of State Street was not far off from reality. The shares of STT closed the week at $69 when we stated that valuation, based on Value Line Investment Survey, was $71. Below is an excerpt from last year's article.

"Value Line Investment Survey estimates that the company's fair value is at 13x EPS. Applying current estimate of $5.47 for 2016 and we get to $71."

Another company we mentioned last year was Wal-Mart (WMT). Once again, we were lucky enough to have assessed the situation correctly. However, our inaction on the thesis is something we regretted. Below is an excerpt from last year's article.

"Our valuation model suggests that WMT shares below $65 is highly worth considering. However, potential investors should question if Wal-Mart will be around 10 years from now. Would or could Wal-Mart be the next Montgomery Ward, Sears or Woolworths?"

One stock where our assessment didn't quite pan out was Nordstorm (JWN). Our valuation model, at the time, placed fair value at $73 which never came to fruition and is 37% above the current level. On the flip side, we pointed the reader to the possible downside of $35 which we believe is a prudent thing to consider.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 14, 2016

Our work of tracking dividend paying company continued this week with 32 companies on our list. Continue reading →

The stock market continues to trade sideways with low volume. The S&P 500 ended the week down -0.6% and the trading range is compressing. Another market indicator, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, appears to be on the verge of breaking 8,100 which has been the resistance all through the year. We'll continue to operate under the bull market assumption and use our dividend watch list as our starting point. Continue reading →

It was another good week for the bulls as the S&P 500 rose more than +1%. As such, the year-to-date gain on the index sits slightly below +6%. This bull market continues to drag along and the only thing left is to break the all-time high back in August 2016. For investors looking for quality companies and a good margin of safety, please review our watch list below. Continue reading →

The S&P 500 lost nearly -2% for the week. While the drop on Friday appears to be dramatic (at -2.43%), the market is only about 3% off the all-time high. This is a great opportunity, in our view, to start building your personal watch list. Below are 17 companies on our dividend watch list. Continue reading →

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from August 28, 2015 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Our average gain from the top five companies was 8.7%. The biggest gain came from Valspar (VAL) (+42%) which received a take over bid from Sherwin-Williams. The biggest decline came from Hyster-Yale Materials (HY). Although we view Hyster-Yale as a company with strong balance sheet, we expected shares to trade lower as expectation were lowered. Below is an excerpt from last year.

Statistically, the HY has decent fundamentals. The company returns 6.7% on its capital and 19% on equity invested. With total cash on hand of $99 million, $54 million in total debt, and $72 million in free cash flow, the company would likely survive the next recession with a strong balance sheet. The street is expecting profit to rise 15% but we'll suspect that a revision downward will occur in the weeks to come and possibly drive shares even lower. Because of the strong balance sheet, further analysis of this company is highly recommended.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: August 26, 2016

The S&P 500 lost 0.7% for the week but remain close to its all-time high. At the end of the week, there are 15 companies on our watch list. Continue reading →