Category Archives: Dividend Achiever Watch List

U.S. Dividend Watch List: May 22, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (May 24, 2019)

The best performing strategy from last year was high P/B which came in virtually flat for the year. This was driven by a rise of +40% for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY). However, that gain was offset by a loss of -53% from Nordstrom (JWN). Chasing high yield companies was detrimental with Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), which at the time yield 12.30%, as it lost -82% in a year. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with yield of 5.80% lost -74%.

May 24, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield -58.8% -7.9%
P/E -11.2% -34.4%
Payout Ratio -28.5% -18.0%
P/B -0.4% -39.4%
Closest to Low   -18.4%
S&P 500   -4.4%
Dow Jones Ind   -4.4%
Top 5 companies except for Index

U.S. Dividend Watch List May 22, 2020

Since the low in March 2020, the market appears to be consolidating between 2,800 and 3,000. Interestingly, the Nasdaq is only 5.50% from the high and is in the black YTD. Obviously tech appears to be the winner during this interesting period and we are seeing some companies making new highs. Below are companies that are still trading near the low. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: May 8, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (May 10, 2019)

The best performing strategy from last year was low yield. While the S&P 500 rose +1.70%, the Dow lost -6.20%. Companies with low yield such as Rollins (ROL) and Becton Dickinson (BDX) rose +16% and +13%, respectively.

Interestingly, the high yield strategy would have set you back -41% with the majority of the losses driven from Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Gap (GPS) which lost -73% and -67%, respectively.

May 10, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield -41.0% -5.2%
P/E -7.9% -25.0%
Payout Ratio -14.9% -18.8%
P/B -7.7% -30.5%
Closest to Low   -40.5%
S&P 500   1.7%
Dow Jones Ind   -6.2%
Top 5 companies except for Index

U.S. Dividend Watch List May 8, 2020

What a strange time we are living in. The unemployment rate skyrocketed to level no one had seen before.

April 2020 Unemployment

Meanwhile, the market continued to crawl its way back, with the major indexes such as the S&P 500 hitting positive territory since last year. It’s difficult to determine if this rebound is for real but we continued to ask the question, is this situation more dire than the financial crisis where the market fell more than -50%?

Below are 10 companies on our watch list. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: April 17, 2020

The bounce from the low was fast and furious and pushed many companies out of the 52 week low range. There are only a handful of companies this week but it’s worth revisiting companies on the April 3rd list as a good alternative.

Before we jump into this week’s list, let’s review the performance from last year. The best performing strategy was buying companies with low payout ratio. Two companies that came through was AmerisourceBergen (ABC) and Kroger (KR) both gaining more than 20%. Worse performing strategy was purchasing low P/E, a classic value investing strategy. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and GAP (GPS) lost 78% and 68% respectively.

April 19, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield -26.6% 1.6%
P/E -0.7% -36.2%
Payout Ratio -1.9% 6.6%
P/B -10.6% -26.1%
Closest to Low   -16.3%
S&P 500   -1.0%
Dow Jones Ind   -8.7%
Top 5 companies except for Index
Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) P/B Yield Payout Ratio
QNTO Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. 10.08 3.92% 8.1 1.24 0.7 3.6% 29%
PRK Park National Corp. 73.31 7.05% 11.7 6.29 1.2 5.6% 65%
STBA S&T BanCorp. 26.03 9.42% 9.2 2.83 0.9 4.3% 40%
BEN Franklin Resources 16.34 9.59% 6.5 2.51 0.8 6.6% 43%

Disclaimer On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: April 3, 2020

Volatility continue to drive the market up and down as uncertainty continues to unfold both here and abroad.

Experts expect April to be the worse month and expect to see a peak in new coronavirus cases mid-April. At this moment, we think that market is looking for any reason to put up a good rally so any good news will likely drive the market higher.

It’s important to read how the market reacts to the up days. Our team continue to produce the dividend watch list and urge any income investors to utilize this list wisely but also apply caution as our team expects dividend cut to hit companies with high payout ratio (>75%). Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 20, 2020

Could things get any worse after a horrendous week? We certainly hope the curve for COVID-19 will flatten soon but only time can tell.

The S&P 500 has broken below the 2018 low at a record setting pace and has fallen -32% from the peak.

If you think that this situation is worse than the financial crisis then we probably have more room on the downside as the market fell more than -50% in 2008.

If you have the stomach to ride this out and want to pick the bottom, there are plenty of companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: February 28, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (March 1, 2019)

The best performing strategy this week was buying low P/B companies. The best performer was Quaint Oak Bankcorp (QNTO) which rose +20.00% in a year. Even through this sell off, shares barely moved. The worst performing strategy was high P/E with Nucor (NUE) dropping nearly -60.00% in a year. Below is a summary of the performance by various strategies.

March 1, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield 0.3% -13.8%
P/E -20.3% -7.7%
Payout Ratio -0.1% -7.6%
P/B -19.3% 4.4%
Closest to Low   -4.2%
S&P 500   5.4%
Dow Jones Ind   -2.4%
Top 5 companies except for Index

U.S. Dividend Watch List February 29, 2020

It was a bloodbath last week as the market sold off. Would this be a buying opportunity? Only time will tell but here is a list of companies on our watch list. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: February 14, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (February 14, 2019)

The best strategy to adopt was to purchase the top five companies with high P/E. Doing so would yield 23.1% return compare to the market return of 21.8%. Worse performing strategy is to purchase low P/E companies. The largest gain came from Brown-Forman (BF-B) which rose 46%. At the time of trading, P/E for BF-B was 31.6. Below is a recap of various strategy.

February 15, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield 8.7% 20.8%
P/E 23.1% -1.8%
Payout Ratio 17.9% 7.0%
P/B 14.2% 6.0%
Closest to Low   2.8%
S&P 500   21.8%
Dow Jones Ind   13.6%
Top 5 companies except for Index

U.S. Dividend Watch List February 14, 2020

The market continue to defy gravity and closed the week at another all-time high. Below is a the dividend watch list for this week. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 31, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (February 1, 2019)

The best strategy was to buying the top five companies with a high P/E ratio which gained +28.40%. The strong performance was driven by Brown-Forman (BF-B) and Aqua America (WTR) gaining +42.00% and +50.00%, respectively. Compare that to S&P 500 which gained +19.20% and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained of +12.70%. Purchasing top five stocks nearest to the low or low P/E stocks would net you negative returns in the last year.

February 1, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield1 6.2% 12.9%
P/E1 28.4% -1.8%
Payout Ratio1 11.1% 18.7%
P/B1 13.5% 4.5%
Closest to Low1   -1.7%
S&P 500   19.2%
Dow Jones Ind   12.7%
1 - Top 5 companies

U.S. Dividend Watch List January 31, 2020

It was a tough week for the market with all indexes retracting. One could attribute that to the Coronavirus outbreak that originated in China or perhaps the market is over-extended. We're less concern about the reason and simply looking forward to the opportunities to accumulate shares at a discount. Below is the watch list for this week. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List January 24, 2020

It was a volatile week for the market as fear of virus outbreak hit the market. The VIX which measure volatility in the market rose nearly 30%. However, the big picture remain bullish for the market. The S&P 500 remain far from the medium and long term trend and our watch list contain 31 companies. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 17, 2020

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 3, 2020

Before we progress with the current watch list, let’s review how things panned out from last year’s list. The average return was +17.20% while the stock market rose +24.70%.

The best strategy, which yielded a return of +30.80%, was to buy the top 5 companies with the highest price-to-book ratio. Buying top 5 companies with low P/E lost -2.70%.

Buying the top 5 companies closest to the low yield generated a return of +22%. Our most recent research has indicated that purchasing the top 5 companies with either high P/E, high P/B, or low dividend yield provides the best chance of beating the market. We’ll continue to keep score going forward and be as transparent to our readers on our findings.

January 18, 2019
(Top 5 Companies)
Strategy High Low
Yield 13.9% 15.8%
P/E 16.4% -2.7%
Payout Ratio 12.1% 27.7%
P/B 30.8% 9.9%
Closest to Low   22.0%
S&P 500   24.7%

U.S. Dividend Watch List January 17, 2020

With the market at an all-time high, one has to be a little cautious establishing new positions. However, it seems that we have been saying the same thing week after week. Below is the current watch list. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 3, 2020

We’ve started this decade by reviewing the watch list from the beginning of 2019. We are exploring the many different ways to utilize our watch list by collecting and analyzing data from various fundamental measures. Our study has revealed outcomes that may be surprising findings.

January 4, 2019 (Top 5 Companies)
Strategy High Low
Yield 6.9% 20.0%
P/E 47.0% 23.8%
Payout Ratio 26.7% 9.5%
P/B 41.8% 24.2%
Closest to Low   21.7%
S&P 500   27.8%

The gains above are based on top 5 companies by various fundamental metrics from our January 4, 2019 watch list. The best performer was the top five high P/E ratio stocks while the worst performer was the high dividend yield (similar to the Dogs of the Dow strategy).

High P/E High Dividend Yield
Symbol  P/E  % Change Symbol  Yield  % Change
SYK 48.48 33% FUN 7.30% 15%
TNC 42.52 51% MMP 6.29% 6%
SAFM 37.33 74% WRI 6.26% 21%
VMI 34.62 34% HP 5.71% -6%
BF-B 30.36 43% MO 5.69% -1%
  38.66 47%   6.25% 7%

Keep in mind that the time frame for this assessment is one year. One might think that this is a one-time occurrence but our data, as confirmed in the Dogs of the Dow from 1996-2019, shows that companies with high P/E ratios tend to outperform the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 3, 2020

We are excited to start the new year with new ways to look at the market. The last decade was a great one for the bullish investor.  We started the New Low Observer in July 2009 based on the belief that a bull market was due.

In the last decade, the S&P 500 went from 1,133 to 3,230, 185% gain or +12% annually. We have been working hard to explore ways to improve our performance and we will be bringing some of our best ideas forward through the weekly watch list. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: Top 5 by Ratios

Below is the performance of the top 5 stocks by fundamental ratios that we posted from our watch list dated January 4, 2019 to December 27, 2019:

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When looking at the data, we prefer to compare the performance of companies on a spectrum of relative values.  For this reason, we have compared the High P/E stocks against the Low P/E stocks, High P/B to Low P/B etc.

Long held views on fundamental value investing suggest that investors choose the stocks in the “low” categories over the “high” categories, except in the case of yield.  Our attention to the spectrum of data that is available to us points to the fact, so far, that the “high” categories require significant attention as they offer significant potential reward.

The category to beat from our January 4, 2019 watch list was the High P/E group as opposed to the Low P/E group where the gain was +47.06% as compared to +24.02%, respectively.

The second best category in 2019 was the High P/B group with a 2019 gain of +40.35% as contrasted with the Low P/B group which gained +23.88%.

The third group, in terms of performance, was the Low Yield stocks with a gain of +16.25% (failing to beat the index), which stood at nearly 3 times the gains of the High Yield (similar to the Dogs of Dow) stocks with gains of +6.53%.

Last but not least, the High Payout (dividend payout relative to earnings) stocks gained +27.17% as compared to the Low Payout stocks gain of +10.42%.

In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately +22.34%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 27, 2019

This is the last watch list for 2019 and what a year it has been to be long equities.

The S&P 500 index increased +30% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +25%.

Our team has been working hard to fine tune our strategies and we look forward to highlighting the results next year. For now, here are companies on our watch list to ending the decade.

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) P/B Yield Payout Ratio
HRB H&R Block 23.39 2.63% 11.5 2.03 -60.0 4.4% 51%
BEN Franklin Resources 26.25 2.66% 11.2 2.35 1.3 4.1% 46%
SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. 75.24 2.69% 21.0 3.59 1.7 2.9% 61%
TCO Taubman Centers 30.45 3.15% 7.8 3.91 32.7 8.9% 69%
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 154.83 3.57% 17.0 9.10 6.1 3.4% 57%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 48.58 4.05% 13.0 3.73 1.5 5.2% 68%
ROL Rollins Inc. 32.66 4.15% 52.7 0.62 13.3 1.3% 68%
FCBC First Community Bancshares 30.99 4.31% 12.8 2.42 1.4 3.2% 41%
ANAT American National Insurance 115.89 4.40% 9.4 12.34 0.5 2.8% 27%
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide 77.93 5.14% 16.3 4.79 6.3 2.6% 43%
CLX Clorox 153.53 6.93% 24.4 6.29 35.1 2.8% 67%
EVR Evercore Inc. 75.38 8.37% 9.3 8.14 3.9 3.1% 29%
ATRI Atrion Corporation 734.39 8.74% 37.5 19.57 5.9 0.8% 32%
NJR New Jersey Resources Corp. 43.87 8.80% 23.2 1.89 2.5 2.8% 66%
NFG National Fuel Gas 46.87 9.05% 13.4 3.51 1.9 3.7% 50%
STFC State Auto Financial Corp. 30.84 9.75% 44.7 0.69 1.4 1.3% 58%
UGI UGI Corp. 44.70 10.32% 31.7 1.41 2.4 2.9% 92%
DUK Duke Energy Corporation 90.97 10.32% 18.8 4.83 1.5 4.2% 78%
CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. 26.91 10.97% 21.4 1.26 2.0 4.3% 91%

Companies in green and blue are part of the Dividend Achiever and Dividend Aristocrat, respectively.

Disclaimer On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 13, 2019

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from December 14, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2018 Price 2019 Price % change
ONB Old National BanCorp. 16.29 18.25 12.0%
QNTO Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. 11.85 14.25 20.3%
FMBI First Midwest BanCorp. 20.64 22.79 10.4%
CTBI Community Trust BanCorp. 40.73 46.07 13.1%
EV Eaton Vance Corp. 34.95 47.31 35.4%
      Average 18.2%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 24,100.51 28,135.38 16.7%
SPX S&P 500 2,599.95 3,168.80 21.9%

The top five companies, comprised mostly of regional banks, average returned was 18.2%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 13, 2019

Another week, another record high for the market. At this moment, all we will be doing is track companies that have reach their yearly low and have a reversing pattern. Until then, we will continue to monitor the market and all our positions and potentially raise cash at the beginning of next year. Below are companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 29, 2019

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 reached another all-time high this week. Despite the strong move in those indexes, we have not seen the Dow Jones Transport confirm this bullish move. With markets at all-time highs, we have less than 30 companies on our watch list for the week. Continue reading