Category Archives: DJIA in Review

Dow Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average from January 1, 2007 to May 2, 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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DJIA in Review: August 25, 2021

Below is the year-to-date performance of the stocks that constitute the Dogs of the Dow, the ten highest yielding stocks.  For contrast, we’ve included the breakdown of the top 5, top 3 and 2nd, 3rd, 4th ranked members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the lowest dividend yield for a sense of perspective.

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As noted in the chart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained +15.68%.  In the same period of time, the low yield stocks have gained +20.28% while the high yield stocks have gained +13.81%.  This stands in stark contrast to the claim that the Dogs of the Dow (ten high yield stocks) beat the market.  We’ve added the 10 low yield stocks show just how much the Dogs of the Dow strategy underperforms.

Below is our breakdown of the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the members of the index: Continue reading

Market Rewind: S&P 3,384/Dow 3,384

On September 14, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed at 3,383.54.  To celebrate, we are going to review what Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters had to say about the market when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3,384.32 on August 4, 1992.

Russell said:

"...the nation's in a 'contained depression'."

"Interest rates have collapsed, consumers are gloomy, and nobody's taking out loans.  That's exactly what happened during the Great Depression--with one big difference.  Then the stock markets were crashing but today the markets are bullish. So how are the two periods different? As I interpret it, today's stock market is saying that somewhere ahead business is going to pick up and people will start buying again---unlike during the 1930s."

"for the first time since the Great Depression almost all the nations in the northern hemisphere are in various stages of a recession."

"...the widely publicized figure is that 40% of the 5,000 listed stocks have been downed by 30% or more.  On that basis, some analysts are referring to 1992 as the 'year of the hidden bear market'..."

That was page one of six from the August 5, 1992 issue of Dow Theory Letters. Fascinating? History doesn’t need to repeat.  However, good analysis starts with precedents first, as outlined by Charles H. Dow, and diverges afterward, not the other way around.

What was being said by other analysts is not too different from what we’re hearing today. We all know what has happened to the Dow since August 4, 1992.

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DJIA in Review: Week 25

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 19, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 25, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: Week 23

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 5, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: Week 21

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to May 22, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 21, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-19

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week nineteen, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: Week 10

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to March 6, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week ten, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

Dogs of the Dow: Week 9

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes from December 31, 2019 to February 28, 2020.

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Although NLO’s Best lost –4.51%, the groups that we would have selected declined –7.57% or –7.32%.  So while –4.51% is less than half the loss of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (our benchmark), our personal favorites would not have done as well.

There is a need to point out the rationale of investing in the major indexes or choosing to buy an S&P 500 Index fund.  The conventional wisdom is that the more broadly diversified the index the lower the volatility and risk.  The trade-off of choosing a broadly diversified index is that you’ll achieve relatively diminished returns on the upside.

Along with diversification, quality is a key component to the change in indexes on the way up and down.  Conventional wisdom suggests that higher quality will be last to fall and lower quality will be first to fall.  Magnitude of change also is assumed to change along the spectrum of quality.  Higher quality generally does well in the early stages of a rise and decline.  Lower quality generally overperforms in the late stages of a rise and severely underperforms in early stages of a decline.

Although broadly diversified, indexes like the Russell 2000 or S&P 600 hold lower quality stocks which results in a more rapid decline in price.  Alternatively, narrowly diversified indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Utility Average thrive as their quality of holdings leave investors less willing to sell in a general market decline.

We take a certain level of pride in the fact that, on the whole, our stocks of choices reflect higher quality in spite of the extremely low number of positions that are included.  We believe that our overall analysis puts investors in a better position when making the choice between buying an S&P 500 Index Fund with zero expense ratios while having limited funds to invest with.

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week nine, compared to other fundamental ratios and varying portfolio sizes. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-7

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to February 14, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week seven, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-6

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week six, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-5

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week five, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-1

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week one, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading