Category Archives: Dogs of the Dow

2024 Dogs of the Dow

Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2024 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

2024 Penultimate Profit Prospect

2024 Penultimate Profit Prospect and our Alternative Continue reading

2023 Review: Dogs of the TSX 60

On January 2, 2023, we said the following:

“…the low yield stocks have the better growth potential and when we consider that it is looking like a toss-up when choosing between the two, we'd rather opt for the growth component of the dividend paying stocks.”

The results of the 2023 performance are instructive. Continue reading

2023 Review: Dogs of the Dow

On January 3, 2023, due to being overseas, we posted the Dogs of the Dow list with the alternate rankings of the stocks, without commentary. Below we have posted the performance of the respective categories. Continue reading

2023 Dogs of the Dow

Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2023 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

2022 Dogs of the Dow Review #DogsoftheDow

In our January 2, 2022 posting on the Dogs of the Dow, we said the following:

  • "In the coming year, we’re expecting the market to underperform generally and accept that there is no real 'safe haven.'”
  • "As shown in the 2017 article, the assumption is that if the year ends in the negative, these two categories will lead the way down. Meanwhile, if the year ends on the downside, the high yield stocks should have the market beating performance."

Continue reading

2022 Dogs of the Dow

Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2022 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

2021 Dogs of the Dow

Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the Dow from December 31, 2020 to December 31, 2021.

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2021 Dogs of the Dow

Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2021 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track.

Continue reading

Penultimate Profit Prospects: Then and Now

2020 Penultimate Profit Prospect and our Alternative

On January 12, 2020, we published the Penultimate Profit Prospect (PPP) based on the work of Micheal O’Higgins book Beating The Dow.  For 2020, Pfizer (PFE) was the stock that was supposed to fit the guidelines of the stock that should have been selected.  Additionally, we provided the alternative to the PPP which was Nike Inc. (NKE).

For the year of 2020, we have charted the price change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Pfizer, and Nike.

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As it can be seen, Nike Inc. ended the year with a gain of over +39% while Pfizer, working on the COVID vaccine but kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, falling near -1% for the entire year.

2021 Penultimate Profit Prospect and our Alternative Continue reading

2020 Dogs of the Dow

Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the Dow from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020.

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As with 2019, the Dogs of the Dow (ten high yield stocks) failed to exceed the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2020.  In addition, the Dogs of the Dow (ten high yield stocks) severely underperformed the low yield stocks with a spread of 32 points.

Our commentary from the January 2020 Dogs of the Dow watch list had the following to say:

“…high price to book, high price to earnings, and low dividend yield are the categories that we like the most for outperformance...”

Overall, the performance of the respective categories achieved the stated objective.  High price to earnings faltered with only the (2nd, 3rd, & 4th) grouping managing to match the DJIA.

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High yield stocks not only underperformed they also led the charge lower.  If the DJIA index managers are done with changes to the index, we should see the high yield stocks match or exceed the index as years of exceptional gain must come to an end and the stocks that have already been punished should outperform solely by virtue of not declining as much.

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2020 Penultimate Profit Prospect Results

On January 12, 2020, we said the following:

“…we’ve elected to choose the second lowest yielding stock (Nike), regardless of price, to see if it would perform any better than O’Higgins Penultimate Profit Prospect stock.”

For the year of 2020, the Penultimate Profit Prospect stock was Pfizer (PFE) as outlined in Michael O’Higgins book Beating the Dow. 

Below is the performance of Nike (NKE) and Pfizer (PFE).

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2020 Year to Date Investment Returns

Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider.  This includes the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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see also:

Morningstar Income Bellwethers: December 2019

Summary: Low Yield crushes High Yield in the last year.

In the January 2020 Issue, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist.  Below is the performance* of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from December 10, 2019 to December 11, 2020 (intraday).

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

*United Technologies was excluded from the results.

see also:

Dogs of the Dow: 1992 Total Return

It has been asked what the total return for the respective Dogs of the Dow (high yield stocks) would be compared to the top Low Yield stocks, that we favor, if they were compounded over time.

In this series, we’ll identify the total return of the portfolio, as best we can, based on the Dogs of the Dow strategy as outlined in Michael O’Higgins book Beating the Dow.  This strategy requires that the portfolio is switched out each year with a new set of ten high yielding stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Additionally, we will list the total return, within the limits of the available data, of the high yield and low yield stocks when ranked in the highest and lowest selecting the top ten in each list.

We are posting the total returns of the stocks from December 31, 1991 to the intraday price as of December 10, 2020.

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As we have observed in the past, it becomes very challenging to generate total returns for High Yield stocks as part of the Dogs of the Dow strategy simply because so many of them go bankrupt.  Four of the listed high yield stocks went bankrupt (Sears, General Motors, Woolworth, Eastman Kodak).

See Also:

Notes:

  • Union Carbide bought by Dow Chemical (DD)
  • AlliedSignal bought Honeywell (HON) and assumed Honeywell’s name and potentially their share data.
  • Texaco was bought by Chevron (CVX)