Category Archives: Dogs of the Dow

Dogs of the Dow: 1991 Total Return

It has been asked what the total return for the respective Dogs of the Dow (high yield stocks) would be compared to the top Low Yield stocks, that we favor, if they were compounded over time.

In this series, we’ll identify the total return of the portfolio, as best we can, based on the Dogs of the Dow strategy as outlined in Michael O’Higgins book Beating the Dow.  This strategy requires that the portfolio is switched out each year with a new set of ten high yielding stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Additionally, we will list the total return, within the limits of the available data, of the high yield and low yield stocks when ranked in the highest and lowest selecting the top ten in each list.

Because our earliest list is 1991, we posting the total returns of the stocks from December 31, 1990 to the intraday price as of December 7, 2020.

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As we have observed in the past, it becomes very challenging to generate total returns for High Yield stocks as part of the Dogs of the Dow strategy simply because so many of them go bankrupt.  Notice that in the Low Yield group, only one of the ten stocks goes bankrupt (Bethlehem Steel) while four companies in the High Yield group (Sears, Westinghouse, Eastman Kodak, General Motors) filed bankruptcy.

See Also:

1991 Dogs of the Dow: One Year Returns


Notes:

*Union Carbide bought by Dow Chemical (DD)

*AlliedSignal bought Honeywell (HON) and assumed Honeywell’s name and potentially their share data.

*Texaco was bought by Chevron (CVX)

2020 Year to Date Investment Returns

Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider.  This includes the top three low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Income Bellwethers: December 2019 Issue

In the December 2019 Issue, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist.  Below is the performance* of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from November 11, 2019 to November 11, 2020.

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

*United Technologies was excluded from the results.

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Income Bellwethers: November 2019

In November 2019, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist.  Below is the performance of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from October 9, 2019 to October 9, 2020.

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

see also:

1920-2020: Dow YoY Dividend Change

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See also:

Income Bellwethers: October 2019

In October 2019, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist.  Below is the performance of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from September 11, 2019 to September 11, 2020.

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

  • Of the stocks that beat the performance of the S&P 500 gain at +11.33%, 75% had dividend yields below the average yield (3.25%) of the entire watchlist.
  • The entire list of stocks lost -5.73%.
  • The conversion/merger of United Technologies marginally impacted return data.
  • Of note is the change in the performance by selecting the 2nd, 3rd, 4th stocks versus the top 3.
  • The 2,3,4 group beat the S&P 500 by 0.74%.
  • Only the top ten low yield stocks did not beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Income Bellwethers: September 2019

In September 2019, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist.  Below is the performance of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from August 9, 2019 to August 7, 2020.

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

  • Of the stocks that beat the performance of the S&P 500 gain at +14.82%, 74% had dividend yields below that average yield of the entire watchlist.
  • The entire list of stocks gained +1.72%.
  • The conversion/merger of United Technologies marginally impacted return data.
  • Of note is the change in the performance by selecting the 2nd, 3rd, 4th stocks versus the top 3.
  • No group beat the S&P 500 which is severely affected by lopsided market weighting.
  • Top 10 low yield stocks beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Dogs of the Dow: 1994

In our continued pursuit to gather data that contradicts our view that low yield stocks outperform the high yield stocks (aka Dogs of the Dow) as presented in Michael O’Higgins’ book Beating the Dow, we have obtained the performance of the top ten, top five, top three and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks in the high and low yield groups then contrasted their performance against the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the same year.

In this case, the year under consideration is 1994 and we have added the list of ten stocks and their price with the dividend yield.

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1994 Data Breakdown

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After reviewing the data and adjusting for splits, the Dogs of the Dow (High Yield stocks) again underperformed the Low Yield stocks.

Average Return 1991-1994

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On average, from 1991 to 1994, the Low Yield stocks continue to outpace the Index and the High Yield (Dogs of the Dow) stocks at more than double the rate.

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Dogs of the Dow: 1993

In our continued pursuit to gather data that contradicts our view that low yield stocks outperform the high yield stocks (aka Dogs of the Dow) as presented in Michael O’Higgins’ book Beating the Dow, we have obtained the performance of the top ten, top five, top three and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks in the high and low yield groups then contrasted their performance against the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the same year.

In this case, the year under consideration is 1993 and we have added the list of ten stocks and their price with the dividend yield.

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1993 Data Breakdown

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This is the first year where High Yield stocks (Dogs of the Dow) exceeded the returns of the Low Yield stocks.

Average Return 1991-1993

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The average return for the period from December 31, 1990 to December 31, 1993 continues to show the Low Yield stocks exceeding the index in each grouping.  However, the High Yield stocks are gaining ground with the top ten stocks failing to prove their ability to beat the Index.

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Dogs of the Dow: 1992

In our continued pursuit to gather data that contradicts our view that low yield stocks outperform the high yield stocks (aka Dogs of the Dow) as presented in Michael O’Higgins’ book Beating the Dow, we have obtained the performance of the top ten, top five, top three and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks in the high and low yield groups then contrasted their performance against the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the same year.

In this case, the year under consideration is 1992 and we have added the list of ten stocks and their price with the dividend yield.

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1992 Data Breakdown

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For the second year in a row, the top ten stocks in the high yield category underperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average AND the low yield category.

Average Return 1991-1992

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The average return for the period from December 31, 1990 to December 31, 1992 highlights the strength of the low yield stocks.  However, for the top ten high yield stocks, they could not outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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A Strategy For the Coppock Curve

On, August 1, 2020, we said the following:

“Last month, the Coppock Curve dipped into negative territory flagging us to closely monitor this indicator for a buy signal. In addition to monitoring the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we created a model to back test this strategy against individual stocks. So far, we are very satisfied with the outcome.”

Based on our prior work, we have developed a strategy to compliment the indications made by the Coppock Curve when applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Continue reading

Dogs of the Dow: 1991

In our continued pursuit to gather data that contradicts our view that low yield stocks outperform the high yield stocks (aka Dogs of the Dow) as presented in Michael O’Higgins’ book Beating the Dow, we have obtained the performance of the top ten, top five, top three and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stocks in the high and low yield groups then contrasted their performance against the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the same year.

In this case, the year under consideration is 1991 and we have added the list of ten stocks and their price with the dividend yield.

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1991 Data Breakdown

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The data should be considered amazing because the exceptional yield that is offered by the high yield stocks (Dogs of the Dow) an investor generally foregoes nearly double the return.  Also notice that the high yield stocks had 4 of the ten companies on their list that failed (bankruptcy, forced liquidation) while only one company in ten on the low yield list has failed (so far).

see also:

Income Bellwethers: Graphic

This is a follow-up graphical representation of the performance of Morningstar’s Income Bellwethers.  In the comparison that we ran, we contrast the high yield with the low yield in a one year period.  The period under consideration runs from February 11, 2019 to February 7, 2020.

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As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield outperforms high yield.  This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.

DJIA in Review: Week 25

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 19, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 25, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: Week 23

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 5, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading