Category Archives: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Theory Downside Targets

Posted on April 25, 2024 by | 4 comments

Long Term Targets Continue reading →

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Posted in Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Theory, downside

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Dow & Nikkei Watch

Posted on February 13, 2024 by | Leave a comment

We’re watching with a sense of awe as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 Index gravitate toward the same closing price.

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The last time the two indexes were at or near the same level (on the way up) the Nikkei embarked on an epic boom.

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This coincides with the apparent inflation cycle that we are entering (versus the disinflation period of 1980-2015).  As we said on SeekingAlpha, the inflationary period was good for Japan and we may see something similar this time around.

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See also:

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Posted in Dow Jones Industrial Average, inflation, Nikkei

Dow/House Price Index Ratio

Posted on February 12, 2024 by | Leave a comment

On February 11, 2024, we posted the following chart to Twitter:

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What is our take on this chart?  To find out we had to regenerate the same data to the current period, as seen below:

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Russell suggests that the chart indicates that the Dow was cheap when at the lows and housing is cheap when the indicator is higher.  Can housing really be that cheap as the ratio continues to climb higher?

We don’t think so.  Instead, we think that the indicator is merely reflecting the inverse relationship with interest rates.   What we should see is the indicator ultimately getting down to the 1980 level as interest rates rise.

This highlights the importance of obtaining a full cycle before drawing any meaningful conclusions.

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Posted in Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow/House Price Index, Ed Hyman, real estate, Richard Russell