Category Archives: Dow Jones-UBS

On October 6, 2019, we presented the following on the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM):

“The current level in the index, with the backdrop of the extended trading range from 2015, suggests that it would be very easy to see upside movement to the 141.58 target in a relatively short period of time (3-6 weeks).  However, confirmation of the uptrend is needed before action can be taken.  The confirmation is a break above the 124.15 target.”

The chart that we posted at the time is below:

Below is our update to the chart above, along with our tentative downside target which, based on precedent, is likely to be the next low for the index. Continue reading →

Below is a chart of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from 2011 to the present.  Since 2011, there has been only one other period that has come close to the current level in the market. Continue reading →

On February 26, 2018, we said the following:

“…BCOM needs to actually break out to the upside in order to indicate the direction going forward.  In the chart above, we have indicated with a blue dashed line the 50% Principle for the established trading range to show that the most recent decline from 90.79 and subsequent rebound is a very positive indication.  A break above the 90.79 level would be a declarative statement of the uptrend.”

A review of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) since February 2018 indicates that our analysis was wrong on the very important point of exceeding the 90.79 level.  Below we have plotted the course of BCOM to show what has transpired and what we’re looking for from the index.

Continue reading →

The market plods along with little in the way of noticeable change from our last posting in February 2018.

Continue reading →

Below is one of the most important charts of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) you’ll ever see.  The range of the chart is from late 2015 to the present.

Looking at this chart, can you tell what the overall trend of the index is?  Do you suspect what might happen if the index declines below the June 2016, February 2017, or January 2018 levels?

In this posting, we’ll provide upside target price and date for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM).

In February 2017, we said the following:

“For now, we have to see if the retest of the 82.10 holds while exceed[ing] the 89.93 bodes well for the commodity sector in general.”