Category Archives: Dow Theory

Dow Theory and the Gold Stock Indicator

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Dow Theory on Marvell Technology Buyout Rumors

Today the price of Marvell Technology increased +8.49% after news of KKR & Co. having acquired 5% of the chipmaker.  According to Bloomberg News:

“KKR & Co. (KKR) has acquired almost 5 percent of computer chipmaker Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL), two people with knowledge of the matter said.

KKR sees the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company as undervalued and has discussed its holding with the company’s co-founders, Chief Executive Officer Sehat Sutardja and his brother Pantas, said one person, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. One scenario New York-based KKR is considering is a leveraged buyout of Marvell, though no such deal is imminent, the person said (source link).”

On our Nasdaq 100 watchlist dated June 20, 2012, we had the following to say about Marvell Technology (found here):

“Dow Theory suggests that the following are the downside targets for Marvell:

  • $10.61
  • $7.54
  • $4.47

So far, Marvell has fallen within 6% of the $10.61 target, however, it has not breached that point thus far.  We’d be buyers of the stock at $8.25 with little regard for downside risk at that point in time.”

Since June 20, 2012, Marvell has had the following price performance:

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If measured by the very first day that Marvell fell below $8.25, the stock has increased +66.18% in just over one year ($7.57-$13.03).  However, if Marvell were measured based on the price before the announcement of KKR’s interest in the stock, the increase in the stock has been +45.57%. 

From our perspective, considering Marvell undervalued after a +45% run up in the price is a stretch.  However, we suspect that KKR will try to squeeze out as much of this stock as possible.  Charles H. Dow, co-founder of the Wall Street Journal, has the following to say on this particular topic:

“It is a matter of comparative indifference with a large operator whether the stock which he is handling is a point or two higher or lower.  The thing which is important is whether the public follows up the advances so that he can sell (Dow, Charles H. Review and Outlook. Wall Street Journal. June 29, 1899.)”

In this case, the large operator is KKR & Co.  Their goal is to see that Marvell rises as much as possible after they have taken a sizable position.  One method to do this is to announce, through major channels of communication with unnamed sources, that they have taken a sizable position.  What should happen next is continued speculation of whether or not Marvell is acquired by a competitor or another private equity firm, ultimately pushing the stock price higher.  Unfortunately, those relying on such information may be caught holding the bag if all the rumors are proven to be just that.

It is Dow Theory that has pointed us in the direction of when to look to acquire or accumulate stocks and it is also Dow’s theory that suggests when to be cautious and possibly sell.  For now, Dow Theory indicates that the fair value of Marvell is $14.58.  Exceeding the fair value target offers up significant opportunity.  Remember, a large operator like KKR isn’t aiming for a “point or two higher.”  If the rumors are true, KKR probably has their sights set on $22 or above. However, any price above $14.58 should be considered speculation, at best.

“Affairs are easier of entrance than of exit; and it is but common prudence to see our way out before we venture in.” –Aesop

Dow Theory

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Dow Theory: Buying in Scales

Reader J.P. asks:

“What is your recommendation for taking a position.  All in, or 1/2 in and average up or down. I can't find anything on this on the website.”

Our Response:

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Dow Theory: Secondary Reactions

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Gold Stock Indicator: September 18, 2013

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Additions and Deletions 1884-2013

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Silver: Downside Targets Met

As early as May 5, 2011, when silver was trading at $35 an ounce, we’ve maintained the view that the prospect of silver, in the form of the exchange traded fund iShares Silver Trust (SLV), falling below $20 was well within the realm of possibility (article here).  At the time, we said the following: Continue reading

Precious Metal Stocks: September 7, 2013

Below is a list of gold and silver stocks that are ranked based on their upside potential according to Dow Theory estimates of fair value.  As with any investment consideration, the stocks that have the highest percentage upside potential should be considered the highest risk with the most volatility.   We believe that stocks with upside potential below +143% are the most likely to achieve their Dow Theory fair value targets. Continue reading

Dow Theory and the Unemployment Rate

For some, the economy has not fully recovered until the unemployment rate is “back where it was” when the economy was booming.  Unfortunately, there are key issues with this notion. Continue reading

Investing in Foreign & Emerging Stock Markets

Subscriber R.G. asks:

“If emerging markets possess such a gambit due to their lack of similar history in the past how can we analyze the markets in order to capitalize on their surges of demand which quickly taper[s] off?”

Our general view on foreign and emerging markets is similar to that of Warren Buffett’s when he said:

“'If I can't make money in the $4 trillion US market, I shouldn't be in this business. I get $150 million earnings pass-through from the operations of Gillette and Coca-Cola. That's my international portfolio’ (source: Ellis, Charles D. Wall Street People. page 56. link here.)”

There seems to be little need to invest in foreign or emerging markets.  However, if there is a desire to invest in foreign markets then Dow Theory provides a reasonable template for how to approach investing in such a market.  In a section titled “Dow's Theory True of Any Stock Market,” William Peter Hamilton says the following:

“The law which governs the movement of the stock market, formulated here, would be equally true of the London Stock Exchange, the Paris Bourse or even the Berlin Boerse. But we may go further. The principles underlying that law would be true if those Stock Exchanges and ours were wiped out of existence. They would come into operation again, automatically and inevitably, with the re-establishment of a free market in securities in any great capital. So far as, I know, there has not been a record corresponding to the Dow-Jones averages kept by any of the London financial publications. But the stock market there would have the same quality of forecast which the New York market has if similar data were available. (source: Hamilton, William Peter. Stock Market Barometer. Harper & Brothers Publishers, New York. page 14. link here.)”

When we speak of Dow Theory, we are referring to the emphasis of values, fundamentals in relation to price as they pertain to individual stocks and the stock market.  We are putting less emphasis on the strict technical analysis of the equivalent industrial and transportation indexes. 

To be clear, because we live in the United States we emphasize investing in the U.S.  However, according to Hamilton, it does not matter which country that you’re in, investors should embrace the comparative advantage of living in a country other than the United States and should become experts of value opportunities in that region.

Dow Theory

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Dow Theory: Downside Targets

It has been almost two months since our last Dow Theory posting.  This is as it should be, since Dow Theory does not require a daily accounting of changes to the market.   As indicated in Robert Rhea’s The Dow Theory:

“There are three movements of the averages, all of which may be in progress at one and the same time.  The first, and most important, is the primary trend: the broad upward or downward movements known as bull or bear markets, which may be of several years’ duration.  The second, and most deceptive movement, is the secondary reaction: an important decline in a primary bull market or rally in a primary bear market.  These reactions usually last from three weeks to as many months.  The third, and usually unimportant, movement is the daily fluctuation.” (source: Rhea, Robert. The Dow Theory. Barron’s, New York. 1932. Page 32.)

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Dow Theory Q&A

Reader BlueIce comments (found here):

“So for the past four years, the NYSE is up but volume down…What is the root cause, if any? Bank Bernankski ?”

Our Response:

While there is considerable belief that the Federal Reserve has been the main driver in the financial markets since the March 2009 low, we believe that the Fed’s activity has NOT YET been felt in the stock market.  First we’ll explain the two primary reasons we believe this. Afterwards, we’ll explain what we believe are the possible outcomes to the Fed’s current policies.

First, in our January 19, 2011 article titled “Federal Reserve Isn’t to Blame for the Current Market Run” (found here), we concluded with the following thought:

“A cursory review of market data during the periods from 1860 to 1914 makes it clear that declines of nearly -50% or more are likely to retrace +66% to +100% of prior declines. This pattern has been easily demonstrated in the periods after 1914. However, we’re only trying to illustrate that the acceptance of the Federal Reserve’s role as the leading cause of the current +69% retracement of the prior decline (2007-2009) is false.”

We’ve maintained the view that the Federal Reserve’s impact on the stock market has been muted so far. 

Second, regarding the issue of manipulation of the markets, which is implicit in the discussion of the Federal Reserve’s involvement in the rise of the stock market, we take the Dow Theory view on the topic. Charles H. Dow was very specific about market manipulators and manipulation. Dow has said that manipulation is a factor of the market in the day-to-day movement. However, the long-term trend of the market cannot be manipulated as demonstrated in detail from the writings of William Peter Hamilton, former editor of the Wall Street Journal.

Hamilton says of manipulation:

“The market is always under more or less manipulation.”

“Even with manipulation, embracing not one but several leading stocks, the market is saying the same thing, and is bigger than the manipulation”

“Major Movements Are Unmanipulated-One of the greatest of misconceptions, that which has militated most against the usefulness of the stock market barometer, is the belief that manipulation can falsify stock market movements otherwise authoritative and instructive”

“These discussions [of manipulation] have been made in vain if they have failed to show that all the primary bull markets and every primary bear market have been vindicated, in the course of their development and before their close, by the facts of general business, however much over speculation or over-liquidation may have tended to excess, as they always do, in the last stage of the primary swing”

“It has been shown that, for all practical purposes, manipulation has, and can have, no real effect in the main or primary movement of the stock market, as reflected in the averages. In a primary bull or bear market the actuating forces are above and beyond manipulation. But in the other movements of Dow’s theory, a secondary reaction in a bull market or the corresponding secondary rally in a bear market, or in the third movement (the daily fluctuation) which goes on all the time, there is room for manipulation, but only in individual stocks, or in small groups, with a well-recognized leading issue”

(Source: Hamilton, William Peter, The Stock Market Barometer, Wiley & Sons, New York, 1922.)

The Fed and world central bank manipulation has an impact on the day-to-day and maybe the medium-term, however, the long term will exert itself regardless of the manipulation.

Finally, while we are skeptical about the Dow Theory secular bull market indication, we have to accept that it is real. As with most economic policy, the impact is felt long after the implementation. Dow Theory might be saying that we’re about to enter a phase hyper-activity in the stock market. If this is the case, then we just might see the impact of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus of the last several years finally kick in, catapulting the stock market to unbelievable heights.

The lack of trading volume in the stock market since 2009 reflects little or no participation on the part of the public.  If this is true, then any meaningful rise in trading volume (on the buying side) due  to added participation from the public could result in tremendous gains.  This thought sits in the back of our mind as we strategize the best way to take advantage while not being over exposed.

When we say that the public hasn’t participated in the stock market’s rise, who cares?  The answer is the very financial institutions that required bailouts in 2008.  They have been trading amongst each other in a game of hot potato.  If the public doesn’t jump in soon there could be major fireworks to the downside.

Again, if the Dow Theory bull market indication isn’t real then we’ll see another round of “too big to fail” institutions coming with hat in hand to the U.S. government.  The most vulnerable institutions could be those that were forced to merge with companies like Bank of America/Merrill, Wells Fargo/Wachovia and JPMorgan/Bear Stearns.  From our research on this topic, we’ve seen what happens when a sizable failed institution is forcibly merged with an ailing but salvageable company (i.e. our article on CreditAnstalt).

Apple’s Pain May Be a Warning for the Dow Indices

Since the bull market run began in 2009, Apple (AAPL) analysts have been making persuasive arguments for the stock.  The fundamental case for Apple includes price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, cash reserves, China as an untapped market, etc.  However, as investors have found out, it is the price that matters most as Apple’s stock has taken a hit from the high of $702 on September 19, 2012 to the current price of $443 (March 18, 2013).  While fundamentals are important, there is one obvious problem and that is the trading volume.

In the section on Dow Theory, in the Edwards and Magee book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, volume is interpreted in the following manner:

“…in a Bull Market, volume increases when prices rise and dwindles as prices decline; in Bear Markets, turnover [volume] increases when prices drop and [volume] dries up as they [prices] recover (33).”

When we compare the previous bullish moves in Apple’s stock price, we find that the most recent run-up stands out as trading volume has not only failed to increase with the stock price, it has been on a divergent path by declining.  However, we need to see how different this most recent rise in the stock price is in contrast with the previous bullish moves.

In the bull market run of Apple from December 30, 1997 to February 29, 2000, the stock price rose +900% while average trading volume increased +1,000%.

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In the bull market run of Apple from April 1, 2003 to December 30, 2007, the stock price rose over +1,400% while average trading volume increased +1,000%.

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In the bull market run of Apple from January 21, 2009 to the present, the stock price rose nearly +900% while average trading volume decreased -51%.

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The obvious problem with the current rise in the price of Apple from the January 21, 2009 low to the September 19, 2012 high is that while the stock price has increased dramatically, the trading volume has fallen precipitously. Already, Apple has inexplicably declined –36% from the high. There is little in the way to indicated that the blood-letting is over.

According to Robert Rhea, in his book The Dow Theory, “…the volume of trading has proved to be such a useful guide in attaining proficiency in the art of forecasting market trends that it is necessary to urge all students to study intently the relation of volume to price movement (88).”

It would be foolish for us to think that the decline in volume, from 2009 to the present, while the stock price increased wasn’t a warning sign. It is suggestive of the fact that all was not well and therefore the party had to end at some point in time.  This is despite the otherwise glowing fundamentals that are associated with Apple.

Now, if the almighty Apple can decline –36% in spite of the glowing fundamentals as the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports keep going higher, then what is the fate of two main components of Dow Theory?  By all indications, we should be considered to be in a bear market based on the fact that the price of the Industrials and Transports is increasing as the trading volume dries up.

From our vantage point, there are two distinct outcomes possible for the stock market, based on the above quoted sources.  Either the stock market explodes higher than anyone has ever imagined possible or the stock market declines, –20% to –30% from the current level, as average trading volume skyrockets.  However, our experience so far has been for volume to decrease as the price increased.  Therefore, by our logic, when and if volume starts to increase it will be because institutions will be selling instead of buying the market.

While we have constructed two possibilities, the probabilities are something else altogether.  We think that the fact that volume has been in a clear declining trend, the probabilities favor a decline of the stock market over a sustained increase.  To put this idea into perspective, when we wrote our April 14, 2012 article titled “Consider the Downside Prospects for Apple,” we said that Apple would decline to $424 (found here).  After the article was written, Apple increased by +11%.   However, after Apple peaked, the stock declined –30% from the price where our article was written.  Our only question is, was it worth seeing a rise of +11% only to realize a loss of –30%?

Notes:

  • Because we have a substantial amount in cash and a majority of our holdings that are the profit portion intended to compound over time, we are only compelled to sell those positions that are recent short-term purchases that are more than 5% of our existing portfolio.
  • Our Canadian Dividend Watch List should be coming out this week