Category Archives: Edson Gould

GameStop, Like Tilray, is Treading Familiar Territory

Posted on January 25, 2021 by | Leave a comment

On September 13, 2018, we provided downside targets for Tilray when it was trading at $118. The downside targets, based on the work of Edson Gould, were:

  • $66.67 (conservative target)
  • $54.55 (mid-range target)
  • $42.42 (extreme target)

Because of the speculative activity in Tilray, we made a point of building downside targets for the stock if the price doubled to $236. At such a price, the downside targets were:

  • $102.92 (conservative target)
  • $90.79 (mid-range target)
  • $78.67 (extreme target)

The actual intraday high for Tilray was $300 on September 19, 2018.  This was a far cry above the initial trading price of $118 that the downside targets were constructed.

As seen in the chart below, the actual low has been $2.43 and Tilray currently languishes at a price of $16.80.

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On January 19, 2021, we projected price targets for GameStop (GME) when the stock was quoted at $39.91.  At the time, the downside targets were:

  • $21.26 (conservative target)
  • $18.22 (mid-range target)
  • $15.17 (extreme target)

Since that article, GameStop has increased as high as $159.18. 

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Given what we’ve seen with Gould’s downside targets in the case of Tilray and other stocks, we still believe that the conservative downside target of $21.26 will be achieved.

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Posted in Edson Gould, GME, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TLRY

Gamestop Downside Targets

Posted on January 19, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Based on the work of Edson Gould, we have determined the downside targets for GameStop Corp. (GME) covering data from the last two years.  To arrive at conclusions that are reasonable, we first must determine precedent for the potential declines.

2002-2012

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In the period from 2002-2007, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $63.30 which established the following downside targets:

  • $28.28 (conservative target)
  • $24.69 (mid-range target)
  • $21.10 (extreme target)

The actual low was $15.73 in 2012.

2012-2020

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In the period from 2012-2020, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $57.43 which established the following downside targets:

  • $41.81 (conservative target)
  • $30.50 (mid-range target)
  • $19.20 (extreme target)

The actual low was $2.80 in 2020.

2020-2021

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In the period from 2020-2021, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $39.91 which established the following downside targets:

  • $21.26 (conservative target)
  • $18.22 (mid-range target)
  • $15.17 (extreme target)

If GameStop were to replicate the rise of 2002-2007, the price could easily achieve a level of $47.40 before a significant decline ensues.  However, achieving such a high price would still relegate the stock to the conservative downside target of $21.26.

The only action we take on downside targets is re-examination of the company fundamentals with an eye for acquiring a long position in the company in question.  We do not attempt to short the stock in any form.

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Posted in downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

Nikkei Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on December 7, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance targets based on the work of Edson Gould and applied to the Nikkei 225 Index from 1989 to 2020.

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As can be seen based on the conservative upside target of 22,983.45, once the level of the index got to the 22,937.60, there was a trading range established with a significant downside move before breaching the 28,401.78 mid-range target.

The new upside resistance level to watch for is 28,401.78.  At this point, we should expect similar price action of trading in a range and/or declining sharply before the next surge to the upside.

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Posted in Edson Gould, Japan, Nikkei, SRL, upside target

Britannia Industries 10-Year Targets

Posted on September 25, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price targets for Britannia Industries Ltd. (BRITANNIA.BO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Britannia Industries, Edson Gould

Hingham Institution for Savings 10-Year Targets

Posted on September 24, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the valuation targets for Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS) for the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Edson Gould, HIFS

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Tesla Downside Targets

Posted on September 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Review

We have run Tesla Downside targets in the past.

All parabolic moves get corrected by a specific amount, at minimum.  Because a declining trend has begun, we have run the numbers of the expected downside targets based on Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.

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The targets are:

  • $238.35
  • $202.23
  • $166.11

The previous FAILED downside targets had significant problems that could have been easily remedied. First and foremost, for highly volatile stocks like Tesla, we did not include downside targets assuming the price would double.  This is usually the most likely scenario to play out and is best represented in our September 13, 2018 targets for Tilray (TLRY).

At the time, Tilray was trading at $118 and we had laid out our downside targets for the stock as seen for Tesla above.  However, acknowledging the psychological component of the change in the price, we included downside targets for Tilray if the price doubled ($236) [within the chart].  In fact, Tilray did double shortly afterwards and the downside targets for the doubled level were achieved, by a wide margin.

The doubling downside targets for TSLA are (assumes $996.64 peak):

  • $404.45
  • $368.33
  • $332.21

We’re glad to have failed the previous times as it refines and teaches what we need to know about the limits of Edson Gould’s work.  We hope to continue the process of learning as we teach.

See also:

Top three downside targets achieved by year

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

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Posted in Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA

Boeing: Upside Targets Before and After

Posted on July 12, 2020 by | Leave a comment

A question has come in about the use of upside resistance targets.  Why bother looking at the upside targets?  The case of Boeing (BA) should prove instructive.

On April 15, 2020, we posted upside speed resistance lines for Boeing (BA).  At the time, the upside resistance targets were:

  • $267.82
  • $326.57
  • $383.59

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Upside resistance targets are reflected in both time and price on a relative basis where a stock, after falling from a major high, will likely experience resistance on the move higher.

Since our April 15, 2020 posting on Boeing, a meaningful reflection of what investors should look for when anticipating the increase in the stock price is highlighted below.

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As Boeing has increased from the low of $95.01, the stock price achieved the first upside resistance target at $267.82.  Circled in red is the anticipated resistance in the stock price.  What this usually means is that the stock price would decline or trade in a range.

For those determined to buy Boeing, regardless of fundamentals, upside resistance targets are a great places to anticipate possible turning points.  The flip side to this story is that we generally expect a re-test of the prior low or some semblance of a decline near that level.

Worth noting, when Boeing cracks the upside resistance target of $267.82 then $326.57 becomes the next resistance target and $267.82 becomes the next support level.  Prices above the first upside resistance target is generally the best level to buy a stock if it is backed by the fundamental prospects.

The story for Boeing is still unfolding. We’ll update the April 15, 2020 posting at situation continues to evolve.

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Posted in BA, Edson Gould, SRL, upside target

Real Estate: Has the Low Been Seen?

Posted on June 23, 2020 by | Leave a comment

New one family homes sold for the month of May 2020 was reported today and it looks like the low has been reached.  The year-over-year perspective belies the image conveyed in the absolute change which is far from the 2005 peak.

Absolute Change

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There is little need to expect that the prior absolute increase needs to be achieved (1,389 on July 2005).  However, it is no coincidence that we see some kind of reaction within a long-term rising trend at a similar level during the 1990 to 2005 increase. The two prior reactions broke the rising trend into three separate periods as noted by Edson Gould’s Three Steps Rule:

Three steps up in an advancing market and three steps down in a declining market usually exhaust the bullish potential accumulated at the bottoms and the bearish potential accumulated at tops- but sometimes there is a fourth step (Edson Gould Reports. Edson Gould’s 1975 Forecast. November, 1974. page 8. ).

When we speak of the “long-term” rising trend, we’re referencing our December 9, 2010 article titled “Real Estate: The Verdict Is In” and the subsequent updates since 2010 which is primarily based on the work of Roy Wenzlick.

Year over Year Change

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The year-over-year (YoY) change shows that a reversal of the trend within a NBER recession has typically meant a reaction to a 27%-30% change at some point down the road.  We’re currently at 12.66% in the YoY change in New One Family Homes Sold so there should be some room to the upside before the current recession ends and the next recession begins.

As always, prepare for the worst as the current pandemic will not start the second wave until after the one year anniversary of the first wave.

See Also:

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Posted in Edson Gould, real estate, three step rule, Wenzlick

Twilio Inc. Downside Targets

Posted on May 7, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside support lines for Twilio Inc. (TWLO) from 2016 to 2017:

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  • $60.92
  • $41.96
  • $22.99

Below are the downside support lines for 2017 to 2020: Continue reading →

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Posted in Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, TWLO

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Microsoft Downside Targets

Posted on April 5, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the Speed Resistance Lines for Microsoft (MSFT) from 1990 to 2002.

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From 1993 to 2002, Microsoft experienced a similar parabolic peak to the 2009 to 2020 period.  In that time, MSFT hit all of the downside targets that are generated by our Speed Resistance Lines. 

Below we outline the Speed Resistance Lines for Microsoft from 2009 to 2020. Continue reading →

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Posted in downside, Edson Gould, MSFT, Speed Resistance Lines

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Shopify Downside Targets

Posted on March 31, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets for Shopify (SHOP):

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  • $300.17 (conservative target)
  • $240.62 (mid-range target)
  • $181.07 (extreme target)

The history of parabolic increases suggests that Shopify’s mid-range target of $240.62 is not unusual and the extreme downside target is possible.  We’ll update this chart upon request.

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Posted in Edson Gould, SHOP, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

Review: Mercury General

Posted on March 30, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On November 20, 2015, we posted the Speed Resistance Lines for Mercury General (MCY).  The downside targets were:

  • $53.96 (conservative target)
  • $37.03 (mid-range target)
  • $20.10 (extreme target)

The chart below highlights the date the SRL was published and the price action that has transpired since November 20, 2015.

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Our lurking worry? That the $20.10 target will be achieved.  This leads to a downside range of $18-$20 from the current price of $38.88.

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Posted in downside, Edson Gould, MCY, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

DJIA: Downside Targets

Posted on March 29, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On February 3, 2018, we said the following:

“In the past, we would normally apply the more passive Dow Theory downside targets instead of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Line.  However, with the late stage parabolic move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the more aggressive downside targets are necessary in this instance.”

Our decision to utilize the “more aggressive downside targets” has proven to be well founded.  However, since the February 3, 2018, a new peak has been achieved which provides different downside targets.  This leads to an update of the downside and upside targets.

Below are the updates with extensive review of what to watch for (skip to the bottom for the Summary). Continue reading →

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Posted in DJIA, downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

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Review: Texas Pacific Land

Posted on March 21, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On January 30, 2019, we said the following:

“The rebound has been exceptional but requires one last step in the process of confirming that the trend is actually up.  In order for the trend to be CONFIRMED as up, the price of TPL needs to retest the $409 level and hold.  Without holding at the $409 level, TPL would be expected to test the ascending $290.66 target, at minimum.”

Since January 30, 2019, Texas Pacific Land has had the following activity:

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We’ve updated the Speed Resistance Lines because the peak in the price increased from our prior level at $871.99 to $901.04.  Unsurprisingly, TPL has achieved our lowest downside target after bouncing at the $410 level.

Now our concern is how far below the $300 level that TPL might go.  We seem to be in the early stages of the current market decline so we’ll have to update the downside risk as we go.

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Posted in Edson Gould, SRL, TPL

SPDR Gold Shares Downside Targets

Posted on March 21, 2020 by | 2 comments

Below are the downside targets for the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

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  • $124.16 (intermediate target)
  • $106.27 (mid-range target)
  • $52.60 (extreme target)

The $124.16 level is not an “official” downside level as it is only an intermediate point on the way to the actual level of $106.27.  As we’ve seen in the past, the extreme downside target is always the concern.  For GLD the extreme downside target is $52.60.

Top three stocks, commodities, or indexes that achieved our downside targets by year:

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

How do we use Speed Resistance Lines? Once a target is achieved we assess the possibility of investment.  If the target is not achieved we move on to the next stock. 

There are approximately 15% to 20% of the SRLs  that we’ve run that haven’t come to fruition, yet.  However, in this current market decline, many that weren’t fulfilled are now getting completed.

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Posted in Edson Gould, GLD, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL