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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 27, 2012

Posted on April 29, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Company Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide 59.02 22.01 2.68 2.2 7.72 0.49%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 18.35 0 -0.46 0 0.43 3.03%
EXPD Expeditors Int'l 39.9 22.29 1.79 1.3 4.27 4.31%
CTRP Ctrip.com Int'l 21.66 19.32 1.12 0 2.76 5.40%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. 15.32 0 -0.52 0 2.34 5.80%
INFY Infosys Ltd. 47.06 15.69 3 1.2 4.07 5.87%
APOL Apollo Group Inc. 35.78 7.79 4.6 0 3.99 6.14%
SYMC Symantec Corporation 16.48 15.86 1.04 0 2.58 10.31%
RIMM Research In Motion 14.03 6.32 2.22 0 0.72 12.69%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 12.98 13.81 0.94 0 1.93 13.16%
VOD Vodafone Group plc 27.93 12.64 2.21 3.4 1.06 14.89%
SNDK SanDisk Corp. 37.58 10.51 3.58 0 1.29 16.56%
ALTR Altera Corp. 35.56 17.6 2.02 0.9 3.73 17.01%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 39.03 25.99 1.5 0 3.53 18.27%
ORCL Oracle Corporation 29.24 15.32 1.91 0.8 3.37 18.28%
VMED Virgin Media, Inc. 24.45 64.01 0.38 0.7 6.81 19.15%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 87.64 32.58 2.69 0 6.08 19.97%
^NDX NASDAQ-100 2,741.34 - - - - -

Watch List Summary

First on our list is Electronic Arts (EA).  the last time Electronic Arts was on our Watch list was on June 6, 2010.  At that time, Electronic Arts was trading at $15.81 with a per share earnings loss of –$2.08 and with a price-to-book ratio of 2.  By July of the next year, Electronic Arts increased in value by +58%.

image

Electronic Arts (EA) has the following downside targets:

  • $12.77
  • $10.22
  • $7.66

Ordinarily, we don’t have a preference for a stock that doesn’t have earnings, however, the reason we focus on the Nasdaq 100 is because we know that lacking any value attributes, companies won’t disappear from the index until the end of each year, unless an acquisition occurs.  This usually means that stocks in this index will likely appear  to rebound due to significant institutional support and the requirement to be invested in constituents of the index.

Next on our watch list is Infosys Ltd (INFY).  Infosys appeared on our  watch list on September 9, 2011 at the price of $47.17.  Less than two months later, Infosys (INFY) increased and peaked at +30% above the price of when it was on our watch list.  Below are the downside targets to consider if purchasing INFY: 

  • $38.43
  • $34.11
  • $29.80
  • $21.17

image

Finally, the next company on our list is Symantec (SYMC) which last appeared on our watch list on December 16, 2011.  At the time, SYMC had a P/E ratio of 17.59 and a price-to-book ratio of 2.49.

image 

Shortly after appearing on our December 16, 2011 watch list, SYMC rose +21%.  The following are the downside targets for anyone considering the purchase of SYMC:

  • $14.24
  • $13.26
  • $12.20
  • $10.05

Considering all of the companies on our watch list, we believe that the three that we’ve covered are reasonable investments at the current time, with money set aside for a second purchase if the stock price declines. 

Watch List Performance Review

The top five stocks on our watch list from April 29, 2011 got hammered in the market decline from June to October 2011.  Hardest hit was Akamai which fell over –40%.  Only three stocks gained more than +10% within a year.  Right out the gate was TEVA in the first month.  Nearly 9 months after our watch list, CSCO and MRVL were able to gain +10%.  The average return of all five companies in the last year was –0.10%.

symbol Company 2011 2012 % change
Akamai Tech. 34.43 33.18 -3.63%
TEVA Teva Pharma. 45.73 45.63 -0.22%
CSCO Cisco Systems 17.52 19.98 14.04%
URBN Urban Outfitters 31.47 29.21 -7.18%
MRVL Marvell Tech. 15.43 14.89 -3.50%
      Average -0.10%

image

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on January 8, 2011 by | Leave a comment
Below are the top Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.
Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
ISRG Intuitive Surgical $267.40 31.8 $8.40 - 5.26 8.68%
CEPH Cephalon, Inc. $60.32 11.3 $5.35 - 1.81 9.67%
CSCO Cisco Systems $20.97 15.4 $1.36 - 2.62 10.37%
APOL Apollo Group, Inc. $37.98 10.5 $3.62 - 4.30 12.54%
AMGN Amgen Inc. $56.98 12.3 $4.63 - 2.24 13.37%
ERTS Electronic Arts $16.05 - -$0.48 - 2.04 14.17%
QGEN Qiagen N.V. $19.32 30.4 $0.64 - 1.89 14.59%
TEVA Teva Pharma. $54.01 16.6 $3.25 1.30% 2.22 14.94%
VRTX Vertex Pharma. $36.16 - -$3.73 - 11.31 15.71%
GRMN Garmin Ltd. $30.53 8.3 $3.66 4.80% 2.10 16.93%
INTC Intel Corporation $20.66 11.2 $1.85 3.00% 2.43 17.39%
GILD Gilead Sciences $37.50 11.0 $3.42 - 5.36 18.18%
SHLD Sears Holdings $70.18 41.9 $1.68 - 0.94 18.53%
^NDX Nasdaq 100 2,276.70
***Read our Chapter 2 review of Seth Klarman's book Margin of Safety here***

Watch List Summary
From the current watchlist we are considering the prospects for Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Intel (INTC) and Garmin (GRMN).  Garmin is interesting simply for the fact that the moving feast known as their dividend should be announced in the coming months.  We're curious if Garmin will eliminate, raise, lower or keep the dividend the same.  As has been the case in the last four years, Garmin has paid their dividend all at once.  This will be very interesting considering the 4.80% payment. 
In the Nasdaq 100 Watch List of 15 companies from December 12, 2010 to the closing price January 7, 2011, the average return from all of the companies was +3.65%.  This is compared to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) which had a gain of +2.77%.
Dish Network (DISH) registered the largest gain of +12.45%. Adobe Systems (ADBE) rose 11.60% since December 12th.  Cisco (CSCO) came in third on the list with a gain of 6.45%.
Watch List Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we have taken the top four stocks on our list from the closing price of January 7, 2010 and have checked their performance one year later. The top four companies on that list are provided below with the closing price for January 7, 2010 and January 7, 2011.

Symbol Name 2010 2011 % change
GILD Gilead Sciences 44.54 37.50 -15.81%
CEPH Cephalon, Inc. 63.01 60.32 -4.27%
GENZ Genzyme Corp 53.81 71.39 32.67%
APOL Apollo Group 60.50 37.98 -37.22%
Average -6.16%
^NDX Nasdaq 100 1892.59 2276.70 20.30%
Only one stock, Genzyme (GENZ), was able to to show a positive return.  This was of little consolation as the three other stocks on our watchlist fell, on average, -19%.  The Nasdaq 100 outperformed the watchlist with a gain of 20% in the last year. 
Disclaimer
Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. We suggest that readers use the March 2009 low (or the companies' most distressed level in the last 2 years) as the downside projection for investing. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. A minimum of 50% decline or the November 2008 to March 2009 low, whichever is lower, would fit that description. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

Please revisit New Low Observer for edits and revisions to this post. Email us.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on March 20, 2010 by | 1 comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
QCOM QUALCOMM 40.05 32.14 1.25 1.70% 3.17
12.94%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 113.3 15.05 7.53 N/A 3.65
14.78%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. 47.87 16.96 2.82 N/A 6.7
15.88%
ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. 18.42 N/A -2.31 N/A 2.33
17.32%
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc 11.82 139.06 0.09 1.30% 1.39
20.00%
This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List Summary

This week, the top performing stock from last week's watch list was Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) which was up 4.36%.  The worst performing Nasdaq 100 stock from last week was First Solar (FSLR) which fell -1.93%.

Below is the list of the highest yielding stocks that are components of the Nasdaq 100.  This isn't an endorsement of the companies on the list.  However, it is noted that the majority of the companies that pay a dividend are related to the chip sector.  Clustering of companies in a specific industry may indicate that the entire sector is undervalued.  If the companies have high dividend yields on a relative basis (compared to their historical high yields), then these companies may be worth considering despite the fact that they are not within 20% of the new low.    Linear Technology (LLTC), ADP (ADP), and Paychex (PAYX) are Dividend Achievers as well as members of the Nasdaq 100 index. 

Before pursuing any of these companies, be sure to verify the dividend history as well as the earnings capacity to pay the dividend (more commonly known as payout ratio).

  

Symbol Company Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from low
MCHP Microchip Technology 28.25 31.6 0.89 4.80% 3.53 43.69%
MXIM Maxim Integrated Prod. 19.14 71.69 0.27 4.20% 2.31 48.49%
PAYX Paychex, Inc. 32.17 23.52 1.37 3.90% 8.43 39.87%
LLTC Linear Technology 28.36 24.22 1.17 3.20% N/A 39.98%
ADP ADP 44.6 16.57 2.69 3.00% 3.91 34.10%
INTC Intel Corporation 21.99 28.41 0.77 2.90% 2.94 53.26%
PPDI Pharma Prod. Dev. 22.71 16.94 1.34 2.60% 1.98 26.38%
XLNX Xilinx, Inc. 26.6 24.43 1.09 2.40% 3.68 46.48%
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 12.49 N/A -0.07 2.20% 2.37 23.91%
CMCSA Comcast Corp. 17.53 13.9 1.26 2.20% 1.17 40.35%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp. 28.79 N/A -0.39 2.10% 2.25 49.25%
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Posted in ADP, amat, atvi, cmcsa, erts, fslr, GILD, intc, lltc, mchp, mxim, payx, PPDI, qcom, xlnx

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Sell Electronic Arts (ERTS) at the Market

Posted on March 18, 2010 by | Leave a comment
It is now time to recommend that Electronic Arts (ERTS) be sold at the market. The stock has performed moderately since the Speculative Observation was issued on January 11, 2010 as it now trades at $18.51.  Since our Speculative Observation, ERTS has increased 10.69%. In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that Electronic Arts (ERTS) has provided within the last 67 days say that it is necessary to consider alternative opportunities. The key to investment success and a key principle of economics is to seek the best alternatives.

From a technical standpoint, Electronic Arts (ERTS) appears to be trying to go above the $18.66 resistance level.  If the stock can break above $18.66 and remain at that level, the stock should make an assault on the $21 price range.  However, with an annualized return on this position of nearly 58%, we are content taking 10% and letting everyone else enjoy the remaining upside prospects.
As we have indicated in the purposes and function of this site, our goal is to:
  • maximize the annual yield of each trade.
  • reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
  • exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.
Investment and Speculative Observations are intended to be a starting point for investigating a quality company at a reasonable price. It is hoped that after doing the background research you can buy the stock at a lower price. Ideally the stock should be held in a tax deferred account and should not consist of less than 20% of your holdings. Personally, we prefer holding only 2-3 stocks at a time.
Sell recommendations are intended to deal with the short term reality of the market. The tracking of the Sell recommendations are the worst case scenario if you happen to have bought a stock at the time the Speculative Observation was made (please avoid making this mistake.) We aim for mediocrity in our returns, therefore we are happy with 9-12% annual gains. However, since codifying this approach to investing in 2005, we have had annual returns of 20% and above every year since.
It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place stop orders, limit orders or orders after hours. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, we would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from us by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers.
-Touc

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on March 13, 2010 by | Leave a comment
Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B Pct from Yr Low
QCOM QUALCOMM 38.95 31.3 1.25 1.70% 3.1 9.84%
ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. 17.77 N/A -2.3 N/A 2.3 13.18%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. 47.42 16.8 2.82 N/A 6.7 14.79%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 115.5 15.4 7.53 N/A 3.6 17.04%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 54.49 26.9 2.03 N/A 5.5 18.56%
APOL Apollo Group, Inc. 63.02 15.2 4.16 N/A 6.8 19.38%
GENZ Genzyme 56.91 36.9 1.54 N/A 2 20.85%

Watch List Summary

This week on the Nasdaq 100 Watch List there were several notable changes. We had Stericycle (SRCL) decline -1.55% for the week. Stericycle (SRCL) had the largest decline of stocks that were on our watch list from the prior week. It appears that SRCL is on its way to declining to the previous low of $50.62. Since May 2009, SRCL has managed to trace out higher lows. SRCL is currently selling 29% below the 10-year average P/E ratio and 24% below the 10-year average price to cash flow ratio. Counteracting those positive features is that the company is selling almost 7% above the 10-year average price to book ratio. According to Morningstar, SRCL is a wide moat company or a company that a significant advantage that is challenging for new competitors to enter the industry (SRCL chart below).

The leading stock on the Nasdaq 100 in the past week has been First Solar (FSLR), which gained 6.37%. FSLR is selling at least 60% below the 3-year average price to book, price to cash, price to earnings, and price to sales. Lacking any 10-year data on First Solar (FSLR) my intuition tells me to consider this stock only in a small portion of the portfolio and that I’m willing to lose 100% of invested funds. FSLR seems like the Whole Foods (WFMI) of the energy sector, great concept but little in the way of sustainability.
Finally, the sector that appears to be on the move is the video game group. Both Electronic Arts (ERTS) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) gained 3.80% and 3.99% respectively. The move higher was also confirmed by Gamestop Corp (GME), which rose just over 6% for the week.
In a footnote to our Dividend Achiever Watch List, we wish to bring to your attention the recent rumors that SuperValu (SVU) is being considered as a takeover candidate. Since our Investment Observation on January 6, 2010, the stock has run up 33.72%. SuperValu (SVU) sports a price to earnings ratio of 38 and a price to sales ratio that is half of its 5-year average. The price to book ratio is currently at the 5-year average. SVU seems a bit rich for me at this time however the performance of the stock since our January 6th article does not surprise our team.
The Nasdaq 100 Watch List is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.
 -Touc

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on February 21, 2010 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted (view all.)

-Touc

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
Apollo Group
56.92
13.70
4.16
N/A
6.56
7.82%
Electronic Arts
16.75
N/A
-2.31
N/A
2.09
13.56%
First Solar
116.00
15.46
7.50
N/A
4.37
14.97%
Activision
10.79
125.47
0.09
1.39%
1.28
16.65%
Pharma Prod.
21.20
15.81
1.34
2.83%
1.87
17.97%
Stericycle
54.30
26.81
2.03
N/A
5.36
18.15%
Genzyme
55.97
31.91
1.75
N/A
1.94
18.86%
Gilead
48.84
17.31
2.82
N/A
6.84
20.24%

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Posted in apol, atvi, erts, fslr, GENZ, GILD, PPDI, SRCL

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on February 13, 2010 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS (ttm) Yield P/B % from Low
Electronic Arts
16.06
N/A
-4.06
N/A
1.97
8.88%
Apollo Grp
59.22
14.25
4.16
N/A
6.23
12.18%
First Solar
115.10
15.34
7.50
N/A
3.94
14.07%
Stericycle
51.36
25.36
2.03
N/A
5.17
15.18%
Gilead Sci.
47.01
16.66
2.82
N/A
6.47
15.73%
Genzyme Corp.
55.73
31.77
1.75
N/A
1.93
18.35%
QUALCOMM
38.84
31.17
1.25
1.80%
2.98
19.00%
Pharma Product
21.65
13.70
1.58
2.80%
1.92
20.48%
Activision
11.11
45.35
0.25
1.40%
1.24
20.63%
Video game makers Electronic Arts (ERTS) and Activision (ATVI) seemed to be in a race to the bottom until ATVI announced that its earnings beat expectations and that they are going to pay a dividend for the first time. On the news, ATVI moved higher while ERTS continues to languish within 9% of a new low. However, the fact that ERTS is so low and isn't promoting "positive" news makes the company more attractive.
Pharamceutical Product Development (PPDI) is again edging back on to our new low list. As you'll note on my 2009 transaction overview, PPDI was one of my most successful ventures from the Nasdaq 100 Watch List. Although not yet a Dividend Achiever, the company has increased the dividend every year for 4 years in a row. The company has solid financials and carries no debt.
Apollo Group (APOL) has remained on the Watch List for 4 months now. Provided that APOL doesn't fall below the November lows, this company may be worth investigating. With return on assets around 25% and return on equity at around 50% it would be difficult to ignore this special situation. However, my primary concern would be on the issues of long-term debt and quality of reported earnings.
As a group, Genzyme (GENZ), Stericycle (SRCL), Gilead (GILD), and PPDI are all companies that I would invest in, to varying degrees. The healthcare sector, as well as the water utilities on the Dividend Achiever Watch List are demonstrating their relative undervaluation against the overall market.

-Touc

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Posted in apol, atvi, erts, fslr, GENZ, GILD, PPDI, SRCL

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on February 7, 2010 by | Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted. -Touc
Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B Pct from Yr Low
First Solar
114.19
15.22
7.50
N/A
3.93
13.17%
Apollo Group
59.93
14.42
4.16
N/A
6.45
13.53%
Gilead Sciences
46.38
16.44
2.82
N/A
6.43
14.18%
Activision Blizzard
10.21
41.67
0.25
N/A
1.14
15.63%
QUALCOMM
38.04
30.53
1.25
1.80%
2.99
16.54%
Electronic Arts
17.26
N/A
-4.06
N/A
2.08
17.02%
Genzyme
55.17
31.45
1.75
N/A
1.89
17.16%
Stericycle
52.00
26.58
1.96
N/A
5.76
17.22%

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Posted in apol, atvi, erts, fslr, GENZ, GILD, qcom, SRCL

Speculative Observation: Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) at $16.74

Posted on January 11, 2010 by | Leave a comment
In after hours-trading Electronic Arts (ERTS) fell over 8% on news that the company had lower sales, wider annual loss and had to reduce full year guidance. According to Yahoo!Finance, ERTS "...develops, markets, publishes, and distributes video game software and content."

This is the perfect example of a company that was thought to have it all and possibly be recession proof. After all, 13-34 year old males were going to buy and play video games regardless of the economic environment. ERTS' stock price and company earnings, like much of the "conventional" wisdom the exists about the markets, proved to defy much of the logic.

Personally, I don't track earnings estimates since the concept of earnings is more or less an accounting interpretation that conveniently fits a corporate strategy to show profits or losses as needed. The concept of estimates of future expectations tied to the idea of earnings is a kind of mental gymnastics that I don't have the patience for. However, as part of the New Low Observer team, it is my primary responsibility to track Nasdaq 100 companies that have compelling price action at, or near, a new low.

ERTS last appeared on the New Low Observer on December 11, 2009. At the time, ERTS was within 13% of the new low after falling from the lofty levels of $61 in 2007. After being on our Nasdaq 100 Watch List for only a couple of weeks, ERTS rose 15.82% in 26 days.

ERTS hasn't had luck recovering from it's market doldrums. However, for astute market participants with a penchant for speculation, this stock may provide exceptional opportunities. When ERTS hit the ultimate low of $14.24 ( March 9, 2009) it was in the throes of a market meltdown. In this instance (March 2009 low), we could chalk up the stock price performance primarily to the "adverse" conditions of the market. This means that the price action didn't reflect the truly dire conditions of the company specifically.

Now, as we see the stock getting pummeled in after-hours, we can find comfort in knowing that investors have had the opportunity to better gauge the conditions of the company and are about to price in the worst that is yet to come. One matter that is tremendously bothersome to me regarding the situation at ERTS is that the company is trying to bury the bad news with a flood of press releases. This annoys me to no end and indicates that the company has more to hide than reveal in the latest earnings report.

Although ERTS is in free fall mode, I recommend that potential speculators jump on the best information resources at your disposal (Value Line, Morningstar and Mergent's etc.) and verify whether or not this company truly has a viable business model. My suspicion is that ERTS is an opportunity that is waiting to be capitalized upon after considerable assessment of risk tolerance and due diligence has been done. Be mindful of the prospect that this company could test the long term support level of $10. Only put money that you're willing to lose towards this "special" situation. -Touc

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A View on the "Buy Low, Sell High" Concept

Posted on December 30, 2009 by | 2 comments
As the old investment adage goes, "buy low and sell high." However, the act of buying low has a few complications which hasn't been easily resolved. One problem is knowing when a stock's price is actually at a low price or not. Most people confuse the absolute level of a stock price with being low. For example, if a stock is selling for $2 then a person might think that this is a great price to acquire the shares. However, if $2 is the new high for the price and one year ago the old low was $0.25 then $2 is actually very high.

One way that the New Low Observer (NLO) has managed to isolate whether a stock is at a low price is by waiting until the stock is within 20% of the new low. This approach isn't a cure for what ails the average investor. However, it does allow average market participants the opportunity to investigate quality companies for potential price increases. The new low of a stock automatically implies that value has been created especially if the company in question can survive as a going concern. This is counter to most information coming out of the Wall Street media machine. Typically, analysts on Wall Street recommend stocks that have risen far above the low before initiating coverage on a stock.

While there are 4336 individual stocks that can be bought on American stock exchanges, NLO has determined that there are basically only 383 companies that warrant your attention. The first group of companies are known as the Dividend Achievers (excel list of companies). These 283 companies are tracked by Mergent's based on their ability to increase their dividends every year for over 10 years in a row as a minimum requirement. It goes without saying that these companies pay some kind of dividend with yields that range from over 5% to less than 1%.

The second major group of companies tracked by NLO are the constituents of the Nasdaq 100. In our earlier forms as Dividend Inc. and Arti Invest, we believed that only Dividend Achievers were worth tracking since the dividend payment was verifiable regardless of "accounting" inconsistencies that are commonly found with "other" companies. The performance of this approach has been well documented and proven quite profitable.

However, the reality of the stock market dictates that we widen our perspective on companies that might afford significant opportunity with reduced risk. We, at NLO, decided that the Nasdaq 100 was the next obvious choice. After all, most mutual funds are bound to invest in these companies regardless of their unwillingness to pay dividend income. Additionally, companies in the Nasdaq 100 have solid reputations with higher prospects for growth over the long term.

One recent example of the benefit of tracking and research companies posted on NLO, as opposed to those from the Wall Street media machine, is Stericycle (SRCL). SRCL last appeared on our Nasdaq 100 watch list on October 30th. After being on our watchlist since the July 24th initiation of our website, SRCL has managed to climb from the low of $47.76 to the most recent high of $58. This is an increase of 18% from the July low and 21% from the October low and 11.54% from the breakout above our watch list range of being within 20% of the 52-week low.

NLO can be easily contrasted with the recent short-term buy recommendation placed on SRCL by Zack's Investment Research. In a tiny blurb issued today, Zack's Investment Research indicated that SRCL's stock had been in an oversold state based on the stochastics which indicated or implied that the stock was likely to go higher in the near term.

Unfortunately, offering up information about SRCL long after the stock has risen by at least 18% doesn't serve the small investor. After all, isn't the mantra "buy low, sell high?" It is strange to note that no analysts covering SRCL (in the following link) issued a buy recommendation on the stock after February 2004, even though there has been tremendous opportunities to buy in October 2008, February 2009, May 2009 and October 2009.

SRCL is only one of the companies that has been on the NLO Nasdaq 100 Watchlist that performed exceptionally well after getting off the list. Below are other Nasdaq 100 companies and their performance since getting within 20% of the new low:

It should be noted that the above companies are almost the entire list of companies that have appeared on the Nasdaq 100 Watch List. So far, this implies that quality Nasdaq companies could be investigated for speculative opportunities near the new low. Hopefully this approach can provide a reasonable approach to buying low with the prospect of selling higher. Follow along with us as we continue to investigate the speculative opportunities of the Nasdaq 100. -Touc

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Posted in amgn, biib, Buy Low and Sell High, erts, FLIR, ilmn, PPDI, ryaay, SRCL, touc, vrsn

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on December 19, 2009 by | Leave a comment
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Symbol

Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B

% from Low

GENZ

Genzyme

48.78

27.81

1.75

N/A

1.68

3.59%

GILD

Gilead

42.83

16.56

2.59

N/A

6.90

5.44%

APOL

Apollo Grp

58.40

15.57

3.75

N/A

7.67

10.63%

CEPH

Cephalon

59.04

16.32

3.62

N/A

2.05

12.35%

ERTS

EA

16.72

N/A

-4.06

N/A

2.02

17.42%

ILMN

Illumina

27.88

38.78

0.72

N/A

3.40

19.71%

BIIB

Biogen

50.07

16.76

2.99

N/A

2.18

19.93%

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Posted in apol, biib, CEPH, erts, GENZ, GILD, ilmn, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, touc

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on December 13, 2009 by | Leave a comment

The following are Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) at $49.74 within 5.63%
  • Apollo Group (APOL) at $56.58 within 7.18%
  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $58.94 within 12.16%
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) at $16.11 within 13.13%
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $46.42 within 14.28%
  • Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) at $25.34 within 16.40%
  • Biogen Idec (BIIB) at $48.65 within 16.53%
  • Pharma. Prod. Dev. (PPDI) at $21.41 within 16.53%

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Posted in apol, biib, CEPH, erts, GENZ, GILD, PPDI, ryaay, touc

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on November 27, 2009 by | Leave a comment

The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:

  • Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) at $55.23 within 5.10%
  • Apollo Group (APOL) at $55.76 within 5.63%
  • Genzyme Corp (GENZ) at $51.07 within 8.45%
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $46.56 within 14.62%
  • Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) at $25.83 within 18.65%
  • Pharma. Prod. Dev. (PPDI) at $21.41 within 19.14%
  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR) at $120.30 within 19.23%
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) at $17.01 within 19.45%

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Posted in apol, CEPH, erts, fslr, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, PPDI, ryaay