Category Archives: FFH.TO

Fairfax Financial 10-Year Targets

Posted on January 26, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the valuation targets for Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, FFH.TO

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Canadian Dividend Watch List: November 2017

Posted on November 11, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below is the 1-year performance of our Canadian Dividend Watch List from November 18, 2016 to November 10, 2017 as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange.

symbol Name total return
EMP-A.TO Empire Company Limited 46.23%
CCA.TO Cogeco Communications Inc. 39.05%
NWC.TO North West Company Inc. 36.28%
AX-UN.TO Artis REIT 30.72%
D-UN.TO Dream Office REIT 29.71%
GS.TO Gluskin Sheff + Associates 22.87%
ET.TO Evertz Technologies Limited 22.09%
FFH.TO Fairfax Financial Holdings 18.04%
EMA.TO Emera Incorporated 13.04%
CUF-UN.TO Cominar REIT 11.40%
ACD.TO Accord Financial Corp. 10.17%
REF-UN.TO Canadian REIT 6.05%
MRU.TO Metro Inc. 4.00%
REI-UN.TO Riocan REIT 3.39%
BEI-UN.TO Boardwalk REIT 2.72%
ENGH.TO Enghouse Systems Limited -3.90%
  average % change 18.24%
     
TSX Toronto Stock Exchange 8.18%

While the entire list averaged a sizable gain above the TSX, the top three in the respective value categories had the following results:

high yield 23.95%
low yield 6.05%
high p/e 3.95%
low p/e 14.81%
high p/b 7.66%
low p/b 14.95%

One stock that we considered was Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO).  At the time, we said the following:

“Our recommendation for FFH.TO, for investors willing to accept the risk, is a three stage purchase plan with the first purchase taking place at $581 and below with 50% of intended funds.  The second and third purchases at $479.95 and $363.52 with 25% of remaining funds, respectively.”

Since that time, FFH.TO declined below $581 with an ultimate low of $557.  Below is the updated review of FFH.TO:

image

Continuing with Dow Theory, the expectation should be that exceeding the 50% Principle (from 41 to 51) means that there is a good chance that FFH.TO will go to the previous all-time high in the Altimeter.  However, the January 2017 dividend reduction could be an indication of difficult times ahead.  The highlighted double-top and exceeding the 50% Principle (under the assumption of buying below $581) means that FFH.TO’s minimum gain of +18% in the last year exceeds normal expectations.

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Canadian Dividend Watch List: December 21, 2012

Posted on December 21, 2012 by | Comments Off on Canadian Dividend Watch List: December 21, 2012

This is a list of Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from low
EMA.TO Emera Inc. 34.22 18.92 1.81 4.10% 2.87 6.83%
FTS.TO Fortis Inc. 33.93 20.09 1.66 3.70% 1.64 7.10%
FFH.TO FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD. 359.24 - - 2.80% ∞ 7.24%
IMO.TO Imperial Oil Ltd. 43.09 9.88 4.34 1.10% 2.33 8.32%
TRI.TO Thomson Reuters Corporation 28.77 - -1.07 4.40% 1.41 8.76%
EMP-A.TO Empire Company Limited 59.17 10.76 5.5 1.60% 1.12 10.70%

Watch List Summary

What happened to all of the companies on the watch list this month?  Simply put, there were fewer companies within 10% of their 52-week low compared to the November 15, 2012 watch list (found here).  So, what happened to the companies from the November 15th list?  The table below tells the story:

symbol
 Name 15-Nov 21-Dec % change
CCO.TO Cameco Corp. 16.73 20.03 19.73%
AGF-B.TO AGF Management Limited 9.13 9.75 6.79%
TIH.TO Toromont Industries Ltd. 19.19 21.34 11.20%
IGM.TO IGM Financial Inc. 38.98 42.43 8.85%
GS.TO Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc. 13.95 14.84 6.38%
CNQ.TO Canadian Natural Resources 27.58 28.86 4.64%
PWF.TO Power Financial Corporation 25.56 27.39 7.16%
FTT.TO Finning International Inc. 22.13 24.46 10.53%
CCA.TO Cogeco Cable Inc. 37.58 39.13 4.12%
CTC-A.TO Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. 66.39 70.02 5.47%
CU.TO Canadian Utilities Ltd. 64.61 70.9 9.74%
ESI.TO Ensign Energy Services Inc. 14.13 15.13 7.08%
TRP.TO TransCanada Corp. 44.25 47.35 7.01%
  Average change since Nov. 15th     8.36%

The last month has been excellent for a majority of the companies that were on the November 15th Watch List.   Of the companies that were on the watch list, the top half of the list gained an average of +9.60% with Cameco Corp. leading the way.  The bottom half of the list gained an average of +7.30% with Cogeco Cable lagging behind all of the stocks.  On the average, all of the stocks not on the list this month gained, as a group, +8.36%.

We prefer to concentrate our holdings at 10% of the portfolio and above.  Afterwards, we like to take gains of +10% or more.  Obviously, we would have missed the +9.73% gains that CCO.TO achieved after hitting the +10% gain mark.  However, we’re very comfortable with consistent small gains that are above average annual market returns (approximately +11% annually for the last 50 years) and letting the profits run while reallocating the rest of the capital to other investment opportunities.

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Posted in Canadian Dividend Watch List, EMA.TO, FFH.TO, FTS.TO, IMO, TRI.TO