Category Archives: GILD

At the same time, we contrasted our downside targets with commentary from TheStreet.com to ensure that there was some balance to the perspective for our readers. TheStreet.com said the following of GILD:

“We rate GILEAD SCIENCES INC (GILD) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, notable return on equity, attractive valuation levels, expanding profit margins and good cash flow from operations. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had generally high debt management risk by most measures that we evaluated. (TheStreet.com. Gilead Sciences (GILD) Stock Is the ‘Chart of the Day’. Albright, Amanada. November 16, 2015. ”

It is worth noting the buy rating that we gave to GILD on January 14, 2010. At the time, the fundamentals seemed to be supported by the technicals and warranted due diligence and possible acquisition. Below is our revised assessment of Gilead based on the technical attributes which is precipitated by investor reaction to the company fundamentals.

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Gilead Downside Targets

Posted on September 8, 2016 by nlo-admin | Leave a comment

Gilead has the following downside targets:

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Gilead Sciences Inc.

Posted on November 16, 2015 by nlo-admin | 1 comment

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 8, 2012

Posted on June 10, 2012 by nlo-admin | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from Low
SYMC	Symantec Corporation	14.57	9.28	1.57	-	2.06	2.17%
DELL	Dell Inc.	12.12	6.92	1.75	-	2.28	2.71%
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.	57.92	21.6	2.68	2.3	7.51	3.65%
EA	Electronic Arts Inc.	13.47	58.57	0.23	-	1.75	4.74%
INFY	Infosys Ltd.	43.62	14.54	3	1.3	3.81	5.36%
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	12.12	14.8	0.82	-	1.72	5.67%
GMCR	Green Mountain Coffee Roasters	23.13	11.11	2.08	-	1.76	6.25%
EXPD	Expeditors Int'l of WA	39.36	22.75	1.73	1.4	3.95	6.49%
CTRP	Ctrip.com Int'l	18.66	17.86	1.04	0	2.38	6.63%
SPLS	Staples, Inc.	12.86	9.23	1.39	3.4	1.24	7.71%
LRCX	Lam Research	37.62	16.65	2.26	-	1.72	8.07%
NFLX	Netflix, Inc.	65.64	22.22	2.95	-	5.41	8.14%
WYNN	Wynn Resorts Ltd.	104.21	22.1	4.72	1.9	46.53	8.76%
NTAP	NetApp, Inc.	30.33	19.2	1.58	-	2.65	9.14%
MCHP	Microchip Technology Inc.	32.01	19.4	1.65	4.4	3.08	9.25%
VOD	Vodafone Group	26.58	12.6	2.11	7.5	1.1	9.34%
MRVL	Marvell Technology	12.28	13.15	0.93	2	1.4	9.35%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	27.16	14.23	1.91	0.9	3.16	9.87%
CTSH	Cognizant	58.85	19.81	2.97	-	4.14	9.92%

Watch List Summary

Of interest on our watch list is NVIDIA (NVDA). According to Yahoo!Finance, “NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics chips for use in smartphones, personal computers (PC), tablets, and professional workstations markets worldwide.” As we’ve described in the past, we have a strong interest in chip sector stocks and believe that the long-term prospects for companies in the chip industry is very appealing.

NVDA first appeared on our watch list on June 12, 2010. At that time, NVDA was trading at $11.61. By February 18, 2011, NVDA was trading as high as $25.68 which was a gain of over +120%. We’re not certain that NVDA’s decline has ended. According to Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, NVDA has already declined below the conservative downside target of $17.87 based on the February 2011 high. The persistence of the current decline suggests that the stock could decline to the extreme downside target of $8.67. We’re doing everything we can to hold off buying this stock at the current time.

Watch List Performance Review

The following is a performance review of the top five Nasdaq 100 Watch List from June 4, 2010. Keep in mind that this is a 2 year performance review instead of a 1 year review.

Symbol	Name	2010	2012	% change
GILD	Gilead Sciences, Inc.	$34.71	49.21	41.77%
SYMC	Symantec Corporation	$13.92	14.43	3.66%
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	$15.81	13.07	-17.33%
APOL	Apollo Group, Inc.	$51.48	32.42	-37.02%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	$35.30	55.85	58.22%
			average	9.86%

NDX	Nasdaq 100	1,832.04	2,478.13	35.27%

As can you can see, the list of top five stocks significantly underperformed the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), mainly due to Apple Inc. (AAPL) having an outsized impact on the index. However, underneath the static 2-year performance data is a story to be told, which is the basis of our New Low investment strategy.

In the chart below, take note of the period around July 2011. At that time, Qualcomm had gains of +60%, Electronic Arts had gains of +55%, Symantec had gains of +42% and Gilead Sciences had gains of +21%. Only Apollo Group had losses to compare against the other stocks.

In the case of Symantec and Electronic Arts, they have come full circle after a 2-year period. This cycle is not unusual for most of the stocks that we track. Even when the stock does not approach the prior low of a watch list, many stocks attain a 52-week low after 2 to 2.5 years (as in the NVDA example above). Be on the lookout for stocks that have similar cycles like EA, SYMC and NVDA since their ability to replicated such moves adds to the prospect that they could pull a repeat performance.

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Posted in apol, EA, electronic arts, GILD, gilead sciences, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, NVDA, Nvidia, qcom, Qualcomm, SYMC

Genzyme Corp: Value is Finally Being Recognized

Posted on July 28, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

There has been a lot of news about Genzyme (GENZ) being considered as a takeover candidate by Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Typically, rumors are simply that, nothing more than prattle about a washed up company that has little or no life remaining. However, we have demonstrated that discussions of Genzyme (GENZ) being taken over are not so far fetched.

On October 17, 2009 (article link), we had only four companies that were on our Nasdaq 100 Watch List that was within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. This was in contravention to the overall market; which was racing higher every day. So compelling were the companies on the list that we felt it was necessary to give mini-profiles on their value propositions.

Genzyme (GENZ) was one such company that was on that list. We included Genzyme (GENZ) as the last company we profiled since we felt that it was “…a far superior value proposition.” This was despite the fact that Genzyme (GENZ) was the farthest from the new low among the companies on the list.

On October 30, 2009 (article link), we weren’t surprised that drug and medical device makers dominated our list of companies near a new low. In that posting to our site we said, “The continued undervaluation of these companies makes them prime targets for acquisition…” Genzyme (GENZ) was on the list and trading at $50.60. The performance of the stocks that were on the on the October 30 watch list is as follows:

CEPH +11.95%
GENZ +33.75%
GILD -22.21%
BIIB +35.08%
SRCL +24.16%
AMGN +1.98%
PPDI +22.55%

The average gain for the group was 15.32% in 9 months. The worst performing stock has been Gilead Sciences (GILD) with a decline of 22.21%. The best performing stock has been Biogen (BIIB). Our sanguine view on Gilead Sciences (GILD) may be worth reviewing since it has fallen so much since October 30, 2009.

Genzyme has already indicated that they’re not going to accept the Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). This opens the door for competing bids, which should push the price up. Our view at this time is that Genzyme is strictly a speculation, at best, given the rise of nearly 33% since our mention of being a takeover candidate in October 2009.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on May 8, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of their respective 52-week low. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and considerable due diligence.

Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	Pct from Yr Low
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)	$38.37	12.31	3.12	0.00%	4.71	0.95%
Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL)	$54.41	13.61	4.00	0.00%	6.23	3.07%
QUALCOMM (QCOM)	$36.50	19.47	1.88	2.10%	2.90	3.60%
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)	$24.60	0.00	0.00	0.00%	0.00	3.89%
Activision (ATVI)	$10.56	124.24	0.09	1.40%	1.22	6.34%
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)	$15.29	27.40	0.56	0.00%	1.81	9.45%
Genzyme (GENZ)	$51.77	125.66	0.41	0.00%	1.84	9.94%
Symantec (SYMC)	$15.62	40.57	0.39	0.00%	3.02	11.82%
Electronic Arts (ERTS)	$17.63	0.00	0.00	0.00%	2.29	12.29%
Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH)	$59.38	11.84	5.01	0.00%	1.90	13.00%
Logitech (LOGI)	$14.63	40.41	0.36	0.00%	2.65	14.03%
Staples (SPLS)	$21.66	21.17	1.02	1.60%	2.35	15.71%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)	$54.46	11.56	4.71	0.00%	2.37	17.22%
RIMM (RIMM)	$64.92	0.00	0.00	0.00%	0.00	19.56%
Cintas (CTAS)	$25.54	23.87	1.07	1.80%	1.61	19.91%

Watch List Summary

The stock that fell the most from last week's watch list was Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) which fell -14.47% for the week. There were no stocks that had a gain from the previous week, however Genzyme (GENZ) lost the least at -2.80%.

Company	Change from Last Week
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)	-3.49%
Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL)	-5.51%
QUALCOMM (QCOM)	-5.97%
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)	-14.47%
Activision (ATVI)	-4.92%
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)	-8.11%
Genzyme (GENZ)	-2.80%
Symantec (SYMC)	-7.36%

In all, the Nasdaq 100 Watch List of last week lost -6.58% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 index which lost a total of -7.56%. As with our Dividend Achiever Watch List, the smaller losses and larger gains make the Watch Lists a good place to start investigating your next investment opportunities. Naturally, we expect that all investment decisions should be done with an eye for selectivity and a willingness to harbor a lot of patience.

New on our Nasdaq Watch List this week is Cintas (CTAS) which is also a Dividend Achiever. Cintas (CTAS) will be closely followed in the days to come since the company has increased its dividend every year for 27 years in a row. One caveat regarding the CTAS dividend is that it appears to be paid only once a year around the month of February. This means that poorly timed purchases can result in large losses without being offset by quarterly dividend payments.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on May 2, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of their respective 52-week low. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence.

Symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from low
GILD	Gilead	39.71	12.74	3.12	0	4.86	0.40%
APOL	Apollo	57.41	14.36	4	0	6.53	8.75%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	38.68	20.63	1.88	2.00%	3.09	9.08%
ATVI	Activision	11.08	130.35	0.09	1.40%	1.31	11.58%
GENZ	Genzyme	53.22	129.17	0.41	0	1.91	13.02%
RYAAY	Ryanair	28.16	0	0	0	0	13.46%
YHOO	Yahoo! Inc.	16.53	29.62	0.56	0	1.93	18.84%
SYMC	Symantec	16.77	43.56	0.39	0	3.13	20.04%

Watch List Summary

The best performing stock from last week's list was Qualcomm (QCOM) which rose 1.12%. The worst performing stock was Apollo Group (APOL) which declined 9.63%. Worth noting is the fact that Gilead Sciences (GILD) is moving very close to the October 10, 2008 adjust low price of $37.47. If GILD falls below the $37 level then the next support level is $27 according to Dow Theory.

This is the first time that Yahoo! (YHOO) has appeared on our watchlist. However, the most accurate low price should be the $8.95 low price that was attained in November 2008. I would not be surprised to see YHOO become the subject of a takeover if the price falls any further.

While YHOO's price has gone relatively nowhere in the last year, potential acquirers have an expensive stock price on their hands. This explains why Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is buying Palm (PALM). From the period of one year ago, HPQ's stock price has risen over 40% while PALM's had fallen by over 60% in the same time frame. Stock prices are getting expensive and the only way to resolve this is by issuing more shares to raise capital or by acquiring another company.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on April 24, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of the 52-week low.

Symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from Low
GILD	Gilead Sciences	41.67	14.77	2.82	0	5.74	4.44%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	38.25	30.7	1.25	1.90%	3.08	7.87%
GENZ	Genzyme Corporation	53.93	35	1.54	0	1.85	14.53%
ATVI	Activision Blizzard	11.6	136.47	0.09	1.30%	1.35	16.82%
RYAAY	Ryanair Holdings	29.19	N/A	-	0	0	17.61%
APOL	Apollo Group, Inc.	63.53	15.89	4	0	7.34	20.34%

This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on April 18, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence.

Symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from Low
GILD	Gilead	45.7	16.19	2.82	0	6.4	10.63%
GENZ	Genzyme	53.64	34.81	1.54	0	1.82	13.91%
RYAAY	Ryanair	29.23	0	0	0	0	17.77%
ATVI	Activision	11.79	138.71	0.09	1.30%	1.36	19.33%
SYMC	Symantec	16.68	43.32	0.39	0	3.1	19.40%

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on April 9, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Symbol	Name	Trade	P/E	EPS (ttm)	Yield	P/B	% from Low
GILD	Gilead	45.7975	16.2	2.822	0	6.48	10.86%
GENZ	Genzyme	52.8	34.3	1.54	0	1.81	12.13%
SRCL	Stericycle	54.58	27	2.03	0	5.44	18.76%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	42.17	33.8	1.25	1.60%	3.32	18.92%
APOL	Apollo Group	63.14	15.8	4	0	7.13	19.61%
RYAAY	Ryanair	29.75	N/A	-	0	N/A	19.86%

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on March 28, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low.

Symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS (ttm)	Yield	P/B	% from Yr Low
GILD	Gilead Sciences	45.34	16.1	2.82	0	6.5	9.76%
GENZ	Genzyme Corp.	53	34.4	1.54	0	1.8	12.55%
APOL	Apollo Group	61.28	14.7	4.16	0	6.7	16.08%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	41.83	33.6	1.246	1.60%	3.3	17.96%
FSLR	First Solar, Inc.	116.5	15.5	7.53	0	3.6	18.02%
SRCL	Stericycle, Inc.	54.5	26.9	2.03	0	5.5	18.58%

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on March 20, 2010 by NLObserver Team | 1 comment

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low.

Symbol	Name	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from Low
QCOM	QUALCOMM	40.05	32.14	1.25	1.70%	3.17	12.94%
FSLR	First Solar, Inc.	113.3	15.05	7.53	N/A	3.65	14.78%
GILD	Gilead Sciences, Inc.	47.87	16.96	2.82	N/A	6.7	15.88%
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	18.42	N/A	-2.31	N/A	2.33	17.32%
ATVI	Activision Blizzard, Inc	11.82	139.06	0.09	1.30%	1.39	20.00%

Nasdaq 100 Watch List Summary

This week, the top performing stock from last week's watch list was Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) which was up 4.36%. The worst performing Nasdaq 100 stock from last week was First Solar (FSLR) which fell -1.93%.

Below is the list of the highest yielding stocks that are components of the Nasdaq 100. This isn't an endorsement of the companies on the list. However, it is noted that the majority of the companies that pay a dividend are related to the chip sector. Clustering of companies in a specific industry may indicate that the entire sector is undervalued. If the companies have high dividend yields on a relative basis (compared to their historical high yields), then these companies may be worth considering despite the fact that they are not within 20% of the new low. Linear Technology (LLTC), ADP (ADP), and Paychex (PAYX) are Dividend Achievers as well as members of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Before pursuing any of these companies, be sure to verify the dividend history as well as the earnings capacity to pay the dividend (more commonly known as payout ratio).

Symbol	Company	Price	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	% from low
MCHP	Microchip Technology	28.25	31.6	0.89	4.80%	3.53	43.69%
MXIM	Maxim Integrated Prod.	19.14	71.69	0.27	4.20%	2.31	48.49%
PAYX	Paychex, Inc.	32.17	23.52	1.37	3.90%	8.43	39.87%
LLTC	Linear Technology	28.36	24.22	1.17	3.20%	N/A	39.98%
ADP	ADP	44.6	16.57	2.69	3.00%	3.91	34.10%
INTC	Intel Corporation	21.99	28.41	0.77	2.90%	2.94	53.26%
PPDI	Pharma Prod. Dev.	22.71	16.94	1.34	2.60%	1.98	26.38%
XLNX	Xilinx, Inc.	26.6	24.43	1.09	2.40%	3.68	46.48%
AMAT	Applied Materials, Inc.	12.49	N/A	-0.07	2.20%	2.37	23.91%
CMCSA	Comcast Corp.	17.53	13.9	1.26	2.20%	1.17	40.35%
KLAC	KLA-Tencor Corp.	28.79	N/A	-0.39	2.10%	2.25	49.25%

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Posted on March 13, 2010 by NLObserver Team | Leave a comment

Symbol	Name	Trade	P/E	EPS	Yield	P/B	Pct from Yr Low
QCOM	QUALCOMM	38.95	31.3	1.25	1.70%	3.1	9.84%
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	17.77	N/A	-2.3	N/A	2.3	13.18%
GILD	Gilead Sciences, Inc.	47.42	16.8	2.82	N/A	6.7	14.79%
FSLR	First Solar, Inc.	115.5	15.4	7.53	N/A	3.6	17.04%
SRCL	Stericycle, Inc.	54.49	26.9	2.03	N/A	5.5	18.56%
APOL	Apollo Group, Inc.	63.02	15.2	4.16	N/A	6.8	19.38%
GENZ	Genzyme	56.91	36.9	1.54	N/A	2	20.85%

Watch List Summary

This week on the Nasdaq 100 Watch List there were several notable changes. We had Stericycle (SRCL) decline -1.55% for the week. Stericycle (SRCL) had the largest decline of stocks that were on our watch list from the prior week. It appears that SRCL is on its way to declining to the previous low of $50.62. Since May 2009, SRCL has managed to trace out higher lows. SRCL is currently selling 29% below the 10-year average P/E ratio and 24% below the 10-year average price to cash flow ratio. Counteracting those positive features is that the company is selling almost 7% above the 10-year average price to book ratio. According to Morningstar, SRCL is a wide moat company or a company that a significant advantage that is challenging for new competitors to enter the industry (SRCL chart below).

The leading stock on the Nasdaq 100 in the past week has been First Solar (FSLR), which gained 6.37%. FSLR is selling at least 60% below the 3-year average price to book, price to cash, price to earnings, and price to sales. Lacking any 10-year data on First Solar (FSLR) my intuition tells me to consider this stock only in a small portion of the portfolio and that I’m willing to lose 100% of invested funds. FSLR seems like the Whole Foods (WFMI) of the energy sector, great concept but little in the way of sustainability.

Finally, the sector that appears to be on the move is the video game group. Both Electronic Arts (ERTS) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) gained 3.80% and 3.99% respectively. The move higher was also confirmed by Gamestop Corp (GME), which rose just over 6% for the week.

In a footnote to our Dividend Achiever Watch List, we wish to bring to your attention the recent rumors that SuperValu (SVU) is being considered as a takeover candidate. Since our Investment Observation on January 6, 2010, the stock has run up 33.72%. SuperValu (SVU) sports a price to earnings ratio of 38 and a price to sales ratio that is half of its 5-year average. The price to book ratio is currently at the 5-year average. SVU seems a bit rich for me at this time however the performance of the stock since our January 6th article does not surprise our team.

The Nasdaq 100 Watch List is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Category Archives: GILD

Nasdaq 100: Gilead Sciences Price Momentum

Gilead Sciences 10-Year Targets

Gilead Sciences, On Target

Gilead Downside Targets

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 8, 2012

Genzyme Corp: Value is Finally Being Recognized

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

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